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MICH

Michigan 33 at Florida 17

FLA
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-2FLA 55.5%Quinn Nordin 55 Yd Field GoalAWAY 13 - HOME 17 · Q2 4:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:20 · Quinn Nordin 55 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense+2.8Pregame prior−6.7Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:01: Tarik Black 46 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +5.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:19: Duke Dawson 48 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +7.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:50: CJ Henderson 41 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +9.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:53: Karan Higdon 3 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +12.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:05: Quinn Nordin 30 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +4.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:26FLA 4th & 17 at MICH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27MICH 4th & 7 at FLA 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:44FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:41FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:54MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:02FLA 4th & 3 at MICH 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:20MICH 4th & 14 at FLA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:50FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:51MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.7%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:05MICH 4th & 6 at FLA 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−9.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:00MICH 4th & 5 at FLA 32, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:29FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:04MICH 4th & 4 at FLA 43, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−2.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:10FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−3.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:46MICH 4th & 9 at FLA 34, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:45FLA 4th & 18 at FLA 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−3.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:26MICH 4th & 14 at FLA 14, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−8.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:22FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:22MICH 4th & 18 at FLA 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:35FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 17, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 3:01MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:19FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:50FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:53MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:37MICH Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:2738% → 39%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
38.4%
Tyrie Cleveland run for 4 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Bush) to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+34
38.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 34 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
39.0%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 26 Feleipe Franks fumbled, recovered by Fla Feleipe FranksSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 14
OPP 26
-1
39.4%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 15
OPP 27
-5
39.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Martez Ivey) to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 20
OPP 32
+3
39.4%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 17
OPP 29
+46
39.4%
Eddy Pineiro 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 6:5960% → 59%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.6%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
40.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
40.3%
Wilton Speight run for 8 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
40.2%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
40.4%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Crawford, Kekoa, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Gardner Jr., Chauncey) 15 yards to the FLORIDA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
40.1%
Eddie McDoom run for 4 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-7
40.6%
Wilton Speight sacked by Jordan Sherit for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+36
41.2%
Ty Isaac run for 36 yds to the Fla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
40.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
40.6%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+6
41.1%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
40.8%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 9Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
40.9%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the Fla 2Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.5%
Ty Isaac run for no gain to the Fla 2Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
42.1%
Speight, Wilton pass complete to Crawford, Kekoa for 2 yards to the FLORIDA0, PENALTY MICHIGAN ineligible downfield on pass (Hill, Khalid) 5 yards to the FLORIDA7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
40.8%
Quinn Nordin 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4341% → 41%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
41.2%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 23Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+7
41.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 59 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 7 yds to the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3758% → 64%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
41.8%
Chris Evans run for 29 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
36.1%
Tarik Black 46 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:2037% → 36%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
36.8%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 18Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
37.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Dre Massey for 2 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+16
36.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 16 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
37.5%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-1
37.6%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
37.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+18
36.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 55 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 18 yds to the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6INT TD
7 plays · -2 yds · 2:2264% → 56%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
36.4%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
36.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+9
36.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 9 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
35.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Grant Perry) to the Mich 23Similar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
36.6%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
36.6%
Ty Isaac run for no gain to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+48
43.6%
Duke Dawson 48 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7INT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1457% → 48%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.9%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.2%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+41
52.2%
CJ Henderson 41 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5648% → 45%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.6%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
52.5%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
53.7%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+12
54.8%
TEAM punt blocked by Garrett StephensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5254% → 55%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
54.4%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
55.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 6 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-1
55.7%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
55.0%
Eddy Pineiro 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3445% → 45%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+37
54.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Tarik Black for 37 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
51.5%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-4
52.0%
John O'Korn sacked by Cece Jefferson for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 36Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 13
OPP 36
-1
57.5%
John O'Korn sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 14
OPP 37
+55
55.5%
Quinn Nordin 55 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:2754% → 53%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+31
53.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 31 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
56.3%
Mark Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
56.1%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-10
56.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
55.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+1
53.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 51 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 1 yd to the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:5043% → 42%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
57.1%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 8Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+8
57.9%
Chris Evans run for 8 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+4
58.4%
Khalid Hill run for 4 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
57.7%
Ty Isaac run for 8 yds to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0747% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
53.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Sean McKeon for 10 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
52.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Sean McKeon for 5 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
51.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
53.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 8 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
51.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 1 yd to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+18
52.8%
Ty Isaac run for 18 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.5%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+28
50.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 28 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
49.2%
Karan Higdon run for 7 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.9%
Karan Higdon 3 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4263% → 67%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
36.9%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
36.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
38.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
33.5%
Quinn Nordin 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5636% → 36%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.2%
Mark Thompson run for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
35.9%
Feleipe Franks run for 6 yds to the Fla 37 Feleipe Franks fumbled, forced by Josh Metellus, recovered by Mich Lawrence MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0969% → 72%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
31.2%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 12
OPP 39
0
30.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+7
31.0%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
27.8%
Quinn Nordin 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2329% → 25%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
29.2%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-2
28.6%
Malik Zaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
25.3%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+6
24.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 53 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 6 yds to the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2574% → 76%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
26.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 13 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
24.6%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
24.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Nolan Ulizio) to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
26.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+14
27.1%
Ty Isaac run for 14 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
23.8%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
23.4%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
23.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
24.1%
Will Hart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:5424% → 21%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
24.2%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+9
24.6%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Josh Hammond for 9 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.7%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
24.5%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+22
22.7%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 22 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
25.7%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 1 yd to the Fla 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+3
24.5%
Malik Zaire pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 3 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-8
25.0%
Malik Zaire sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
20.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:2478% → 81%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
22.5%
Ty Isaac run for 22 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
19.6%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
19.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Sean McKeon for 10 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
18.6%
Karan Higdon run for 12 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
17.8%
Chris Evans run for 7 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-1
16.6%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
16.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 4
OPP 29
-5
19.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Camaron Cheeseman) to the Fla 34Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
19.3%
Quinn Nordin 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0120% → 14%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
20.2%
Malik Zaire sacked by Mike McCray for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 15
OWN 29
-5
16.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 20
OWN 24
+2
16.4%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Brandon Powell for 2 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
14.8%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 18
OWN 26
+8
14.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 8 yds to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:1986% → 89%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
13.7%
Chris Evans run for 13 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
12.5%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+48
12.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 48 yds to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
10.3%
Wilton Speight sacked by TEAM for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
10.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Sean McKeon) to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+1
9.7%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Fla 14Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
10.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
11.5%
Quinn Nordin 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0412% → 10%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
11.7%
Malik Zaire run for 5 yds to the Fla 25 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Jordan) to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+14
11.4%
Malik Zaire pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 14 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
12.8%
Malik Zaire run for 2 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
11.1%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
10.5%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 7 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
11.4%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
10.2%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:0092% → 93%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
7.6%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Fla 37Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-1
7.0%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-8
6.9%
Wilton Speight sacked by Jordan Sherit for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
6.6%
Will Hart punt for 35 yds, downed at the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:204% → 1%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-8
3.8%
Malik Zaire sacked by Khaleke Hudson for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 3 Malik Zaire fumbled, forced by Khaleke Hudson, recovered by Fla Martez Ivey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 18
OWN 3
0
1.0%
Noah Furbush 0 Yd Fumble Return (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
1.0%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
0.9%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 17Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
0.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+28
0.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Josh Hammond for 28 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
1.0%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 20 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
1.1%
Malik Zaire sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:53
Karan Higdon 3 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-12.3
TD · Q2 10:50
CJ Henderson 41 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
+9.1
TD · Q2 12:19
Duke Dawson 48 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com