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ALA

Alabama 54 at Florida 16

FLA
2016 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2016 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:48 · Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAndre Goolsby
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior−21.5Home team on offense−19.4Score differential−10.6Garbage-time factor−6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:42: Joshua Jacobs 27 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Adam Griffith PAT blocked) — ALA win probability +1.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:55: Gehrig Dieter 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:47: Joshua Jacobs 6 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +2.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:19: DeAndre Goolsby 25 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +3.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:32: Bo Scarbrough 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:09ALA 4th & 16 at ALA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:58ALA 4th & 11 at FLA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:42FLA 4th & 20 at FLA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:55FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:38ALA 4th & 10 at FLA 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:28FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:27ALA 4th & 7 at FLA 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:20ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:48FLA 4th & 2 at ALA 2, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:49FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:51FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:06ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:42ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:55ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:47ALA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19FLA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:32ALA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:15ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:48ALA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:568% → 11%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
8.3%
Antonio Callaway run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 35Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+3
8.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-5
8.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Tyrie Cleveland) to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+17
8.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
50
+4
9.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
9.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+13
9.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 13 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
9.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
9.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+24
10.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 24 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.3%
Antonio Callaway 5 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3689% → 88%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
11.0%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 15 Jalen Hurts fumbled, recovered by Alab Jalen HurtsSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
11.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Joshua Jacobs for 6 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-2
11.8%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Marcell Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
12.3%
JK Scott punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+40
12.5%
Austin Appleby pass intercepted Shaun Dion Hamilton return for 40 yds to the Fla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5188% → 88%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
11.8%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 13Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
12.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
12.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+31
11.9%
Adam Griffith 31 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5INT TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4512% → 12%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
12.0%
Lamical Perine run for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
12.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
12.9%
Appleby, Austin pass complete to Callaway, Antonio for 9 yards to the FLORIDA46, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Cleveland, Tyrie) 10 yards to the FLORIDA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+44
11.6%
Minkah Fitzpatrick 44 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT TD
9 plays · 2 yds · 3:1612% → 11%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.7%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
12.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 7 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
12.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-12
12.6%
Austin Appleby sacked by Reuben Foster for a loss of 12 yards to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 22
OWN 25
+2
12.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 20
OWN 27
0
12.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Lamical PerineSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 20
OWN 27
+27
10.7%
Joshua Jacobs 27 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Adam Griffith PAT blocked)Similar
Q1 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
10.8%
David Reese Defensive PAT ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4212% → 12%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
11.7%
Austin Appleby run for 4 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
12.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
11.9%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:5188% → 91%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
12.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 3 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+9
12.2%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
12.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
12.3%
Harris, Damien rush for loss of 2 yards to the ALABAMA22, PENALTY FLORIDA face mask (Zuniga, Jabari) 15 yards to the ALABAMA39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+52
11.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 52 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
11.6%
Joshua Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Fla 4Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
11.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 6Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
9.2%
Gehrig Dieter 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5210% → 10%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.7%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
9.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
10.0%
Antonio Callaway run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-11
9.8%
Johnny Townsend run for a loss of 11 yards to the Fla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1491% → 91%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
8.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
9.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
9.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Joshua Jacobs, broken up by Marcell HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
9.4%
Adam Griffith 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5710% → 10%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
9.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 6 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
10.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Ronnie HarrisonSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
9.8%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Ronnie HarrisonSimilar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+47
9.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 62 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 47 yds to the Fla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:5391% → 92%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
9.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 22 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
9.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 6 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+10
9.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 10 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
9.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Joshua JacobsSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
7.9%
Adam Griffith 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:439% → 9%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
9.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
9.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
9.1%
Austin Appleby pass intercepted Tony Brown return for no gain to the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:3892% → 95%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
7.6%
Joshua Jacobs run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
50
+3
7.4%
Joshua Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+32
7.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 32 yds to the Fla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
7.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 9 yds to the Fla 6Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
4.8%
Joshua Jacobs 6 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:066% → 10%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
6.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 9Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+22
6.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 22 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
6.3%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+17
6.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 17 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
6.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+15
6.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 15 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
6.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
6.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 9 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
6.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
10.0%
DeAndre Goolsby 25 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.7%
Joshua Jacobs run for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2992% → 92%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
8.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+10
8.2%
Damien Harris run for 10 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
8.5%
JK Scott punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:249% → 9%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
8.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Josh Hammond for 4 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
9.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+6
8.8%
Appleby, Austin pass incomplete to Powell, Brandon, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Harrison, Ronnie) 6 yards to the FLORIDA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
9.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 2 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
9.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-5
9.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+14
8.7%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 14 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
9.6%
Josh Hammond run for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
9.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 10 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+32
9.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Lamical Perine for 32 yds to the Alab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
10.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Alab 2Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
9.7%
Brandon Powell run for 1 yd to the Alab 1Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
9.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 2Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
9.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
8 plays · 98 yds · 3:0993% → 98%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
7.4%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+23
7.3%
Damien Harris run for 23 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
7.2%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Keivonnis Davis and Cece Jefferson for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 19
OWN 25
0
7.2%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+31
7.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 31 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
6.2%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+34
6.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 34 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.7%
Bo Scarbrough 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:333% → 2%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
2.7%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
2.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Mark Thompson for no gain to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-3
2.7%
Austin Appleby sacked by Reuben Foster for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+7
2.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 60 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 7 yds to the Alab 37 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Mekhi Brown) to the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
16 plays · 91 yds · 7:2898% → 100%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
1.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
1.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+12
1.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 12 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
1.7%
ArDarius Stewart run for no gain to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
1.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+6
1.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
1.5%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+21
1.4%
Damien Harris run for 21 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
1.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+8
1.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
1.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 5 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
1.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Fla 14Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+7
1.1%
Joshua Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Fla 13, FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Taven Bryan) to the Fla 7 for a 1ST down, T. Bryan ejectedSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
1.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daniel McMillian) to the Fla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Bo Scarbrough 1 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
0.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 5 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-8
0.2%
Austin Appleby sacked by Tim Williams and Jonathan Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 18
OWN 28
-13
0.2%
Austin Appleby sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 13 yards to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 31
OWN 15
+36
0.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 42 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 36 yds to the Fla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
0.2%
Derrick Gore run for 11 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
0.2%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
0.2%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.1%
Derrick Gore 10 Yd Run (Andy Pappanastos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
0.1%
Mark Thompson run for 7 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+1
0.1%
Mark Thompson run for 1 yd to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
0.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 4 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
0.1%
Mark Thompson run for 5 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
0.1%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Mark Thompson run for no gain to the Fla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:32
Bo Scarbrough 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)
-4.3
TD · Q2 0:19
DeAndre Goolsby 25 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
+3.6
TD · Q2 11:55
Gehrig Dieter 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)
-2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com