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FLA

Florida 16 at LSU 10

LSU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:39 · Johnny Townsend punt for 59 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior+17.7Home team on offense+2.7Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:57: Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 98 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +17.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 4:37: Eddy Pineiro 26 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +17.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:23: Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the LSU 19 — FLA win probability +10.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:24: Eddy Pineiro 34 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +10.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:18: Danny Etling pass incomplete — LSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:39FLA 4th & 1 at LSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:39FLA 4th & 20 at LSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:19FLA 4th & 6 at LSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:18FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:07LSU 4th & 7 at FLA 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:07FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:01LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:10LSU 4th & 2 at FLA 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:36LSU 4th & 9 at FLA 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:01FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 38, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:18LSU 4th & 5 at FLA 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−14.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:37FLA 4th & 8 at LSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−2.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−25.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:24FLA 4th & 5 at LSU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−21.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00LSU 4th & 1 at FLA 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−37.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−44.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:36LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:57FLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 13 yds · 6:0618% → 20%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
82.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
82.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
81.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
81.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-3
81.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 11
50
-5
81.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (Austin Appleby) to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+15
81.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 15 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
80.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
80.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio Callaway, broken up by Tre'Davious WhiteSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
80.5%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-10
80.4%
Austin Appleby sacked by Dwayne Thomas for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 20
OPP 47
0
80.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:5480% → 82%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.4%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+29
80.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 29 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
80.4%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+7
80.4%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
80.4%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+7
80.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Dee Anderson for 7 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
80.2%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the Fla 23Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+17
80.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 17 yds to the Fla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
79.9%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Colin Jeter) to the Fla 11Similar
Q1 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
79.8%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.0%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:4619% → 22%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
80.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 13 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
80.3%
Lamical Perine run for 9 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
80.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
80.2%
Austin Appleby run for 1 yd to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
79.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+3
79.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
79.5%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
79.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
79.7%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Tre'Davious WhiteSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
78.1%
Eddy Pineiro 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4FUMBLE
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:3779% → 80%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Teez TaborSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
78.4%
J.D. Moore run for 7 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
78.9%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
78.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Dee Anderson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 1
50
+3
78.8%
J.D. Moore run for 3 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+29
79.0%
D.J. Chark run for 29 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
79.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+6
79.3%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
79.1%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
79.6%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 12 Derrius Guice fumbled, forced by Caleb Brantley, recovered by Fla Kylan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0723% → 22%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
77.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-9
77.2%
Austin Appleby sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 6Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 16
OWN 6
+3
77.9%
Austin Appleby run for 3 yds to the Fla 9Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
78.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds, downed at the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5378% → 77%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
77.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 11 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
78.6%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
78.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+2
77.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
76.7%
Josh Growden punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5524% → 22%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
76.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
76.0%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
77.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Tre'Davious WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
77.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 55 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for no gain to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5977% → 75%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
76.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
76.4%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
75.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Darrel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
74.7%
Josh Growden punt for 36 yds, downed at the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1725% → 22%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
75.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
75.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 3 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
76.8%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
78.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
77.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:4576% → 78%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
75.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 18 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
77.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 33 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
78.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OPP 15
-3
78.3%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+9
77.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 9 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
80.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.1%
Danny Etling run for 2 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
79.2%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 2Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
77.7%
Josh Growden pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12TD
1 play · 98 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+98
60.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 98 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5961% → 59%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.4%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
61.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 16 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
63.8%
D.J. Chark run for 12 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
64.6%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
63.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi Dupre, broken up by Duke DawsonSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+2
60.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
58.7%
Josh Growden punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:2742% → 45%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
57.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 5Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+12
56.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 12 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
55.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 13 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
54.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
51.4%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
51.8%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Jordan Scarlett, broken up by Dwayne ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
54.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:2757% → 66%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
56.6%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+20
58.7%
Derrius Guice run for 20 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
59.2%
Danny Etling run for 10 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
60.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
60.0%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
59.5%
J.D. Moore run for 5 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
62.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 17 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
62.0%
D.J. Chark run for 10 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
61.5%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Fla 3Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-9
61.2%
Danny Etling sacked by Cece Jefferson for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
57.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 7 yds to the Fla 5Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
65.5%
Colby Delahoussaye 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16FUMBLE
16 plays · 70 yds · 7:2341% → 70%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
59.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+13
60.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
55.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
50
+5
52.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+7
52.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 7 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
51.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
49.4%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
51.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
47.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+22
47.5%
Lamical Perine run for 22 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
46.0%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
45.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
46.8%
Austin Appleby run for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 8 Austin Appleby fumbled, recovered by Fla Lamical PerineSimilar
Q4 4:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
29.6%
Eddy Pineiro 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5977% → 86%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
23.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
21.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+1
22.3%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
13.8%
Eddy Pineiro 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FUMBLE
16 plays · 74 yds · 3:1824% → 15%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
23.2%
Danny Etling run for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
25.7%
Derrius Guice run for 14 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
29.0%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
27.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
25.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius GuiceSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
30.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
29.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 6 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
27.0%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Fla 5Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
26.6%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.0%
J.D. Moore run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.0%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Fla 1 Derrius Guice fumbled, recovered by LSU Foster MoreauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:57
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 98 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
-17.4
FG · Q4 4:37
Eddy Pineiro 26 yd FG GOOD
-17.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com