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ARST

Arkansas State 31 at UCF 13

UCF
2016 · AutoNation Cure Bowl · Dec 17, 2016 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:18 · Caleb Houston punt for 50 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 12 yds to the ArkSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.8Pregame prior−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:48: Kendall Sanders 12 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +5.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:31: Taylor Oldham 11 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +7.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:04: Matthew Wright 45 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +5.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:09: Kendall Sanders 75 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +10.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: Kendall Sanders 17 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +13.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 14 of 15ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 13:37UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15ARST 4th & 11 at UCF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    64.1%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:16UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:28ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 14, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:18UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:24ARST 4th & 5 at UCF 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:20UCF 4th & 2 at ARST 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:51ARST 4th & 4 at midfield, up 17
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:37UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 10:56ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:50ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:57UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  14. Q2 4:18ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  15. Q2 2:15UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  16. Q2 1:04UCF 4th & 7 at ARST 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 11:34UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q3 10:29ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  19. Q3 8:31UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  20. Q3 6:57ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  21. Q3 4:52UCF 4th & 7 at ARST 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−5.2
    average punt
  22. Q3 3:07ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−3.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  23. Q3 2:13UCF 4th & 19 at UCF 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−3.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  24. Q3 0:31ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  25. Q4 13:58UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 12, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  26. Q4 11:05ARST 4th & 10 at UCF 41, up 18
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  27. Q4 9:03UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−0.3
    average punt
  28. Q4 6:38ARST 4th & 27 at ARST 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  29. Q4 1:05ARST 4th & 14 at UCF 14, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:59ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:48ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:31UCF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:09ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:54ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:1243% → 43%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
43.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Aaron Evans) to the UCF 6Similar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 6
0
43.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+2
43.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 13
OWN 8
-7
43.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Kyle Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 20
OWN 1
+8
43.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 48 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 8 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1657% → 56%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
43.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendall SandersSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
43.3%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
43.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-5
43.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
43.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5644% → 43%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
44.0%
Adrian Killins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
44.1%
Adrian Killins run for no gain to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
44.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
42.6%
B.J. Edmonds 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:2343% → 43%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
43.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
42.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 4 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
42.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
43.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 8 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
43.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
43.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
42.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
42.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 46 yds, downed at the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3957% → 57%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
42.8%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
42.4%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+5
42.8%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+3
42.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 3 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
42.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 53 yds, downed at the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5943% → 42%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
42.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 2 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
42.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jaquarius Bargnare for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
42.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-5
42.6%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+12
42.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 50 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 12 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:4258% → 59%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.0%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+67
41.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 67 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
41.0%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 2 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
40.8%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q1 4:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
41.1%
Sawyer Williams 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:0760% → 66%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
40.4%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
40.2%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
34.4%
Kendall Sanders 12 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:0234% → 33%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-9
34.5%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
33.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
33.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (9 Yards) to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
33.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 12 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
34.4%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Caleb Caston for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+2
33.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taj McGowan for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-5
32.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tate Hernly) to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+15
32.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 15 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
33.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2370% → 70%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
30.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
30.0%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 4
50
0
29.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 4
50
+2
29.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 36 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 2 yds to the UCF 48 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:5931% → 31%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
31.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jaquarius Bargnare for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
31.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
31.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
50
-4
32.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Chris Humes for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
31.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jaquarius BargnareSimilar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
31.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taj McGowanSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
30.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:1972% → 71%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
28.3%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
28.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
28.4%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+4
28.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 33 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 4 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:0231% → 39%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
31.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 34 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
31.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 5 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-2
31.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
38.9%
Taylor Oldham 11 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2162% → 64%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
38.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
37.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
37.2%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
35.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
35.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendall SandersSimilar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
36.5%
Damon Foncham punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4636% → 34%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
35.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+5
36.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Darrius Rosser) to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
36.2%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Tate Hernly) to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+3
35.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 22
OWN 22
0
35.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 22
OWN 22
+12
34.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 12 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+9
34.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 50 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25, UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Rashard Causey) to the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1766% → 64%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
34.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 7 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-2
34.1%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-6
34.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Nate Evans and Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
35.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5835% → 33%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
34.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tristan Payton for 16 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
35.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-2
34.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+4
33.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+18
33.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 42 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 18 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -13 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-13
32.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 37, Chris Murray fumbled, forced by Demeitre Brim, recovered by UCF Mark Rucker at the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5638% → 37%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
36.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+4
34.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
37.3%
Matthew Wright 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4465% → 65%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
34.6%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
34.6%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:3566% → 76%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
33.9%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
34.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+75
24.5%
Kendall Sanders 75 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2024% → 23%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
24.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
24.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+14
23.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 14 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
24.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+3
25.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
24.5%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-2
24.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
23.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5079% → 79%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
21.3%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
20.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
21.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
21.4%
Damon Foncham punt for 57 yds, downed at the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5022% → 19%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
21.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+10
21.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
22.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
21.7%
Adrian Killins run for 2 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-11
21.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Kyle Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 19
OWN 24
+7
19.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 7 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
19.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 22, ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2382% → 83%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
18.2%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
18.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+1
18.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 1 yd to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+2
17.5%
Damon Foncham punt for 36 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:4121% → 24%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
21.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+13
21.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
21.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jaquarius Bargnare for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-5
22.1%
UCF Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
21.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
21.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-2
21.6%
Tristan Payton run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
19.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
24.4%
Matthew Wright 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2677% → 76%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-11
22.7%
Justice Hansen sacked by Pat Jasinski and Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
23.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
24.4%
Damon Foncham punt for 41 yds , Chris Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:2524% → 21%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
23.9%
Adrian Killins run for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 19
OWN 33
0
22.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 19
OWN 33
0
22.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
21.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2977% → 78%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
23.0%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+4
22.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-5
22.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Joseph Bacchus) to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
21.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 29 yds , Chris Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 37, Chris Johnson fumbled, forced by Ryan Eustace, recovered by ArkSt Logan Moragne at the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:2482% → 95%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
18.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 20 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
18.0%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
4.7%
Kendall Sanders 17 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 31DOWNS
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:169% → 8%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
8.5%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
8.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Taj McGowanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 32PUNT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:087% → 7%
Q4 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
7.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Taj McGowanSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
7.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 33PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3896% → 97%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
4.5%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+19
4.4%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 19 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
4.1%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
2.8%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
2.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-5
2.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
2.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 34DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:285% → 5%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
5.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Adrian Killins for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
4.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Hayden JonesSimilar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+15
4.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nehemiah Wagner) to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
4.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Hayden Jones for 7 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-5
5.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
4.9%
Justin Holman run for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
5.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jaquarius BargnareSimilar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
4.7%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 35PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 2:1398% → 98%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
2.0%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-14
1.9%
Cameron Echols-Luper run for a loss of 14 yards to the ArkSt 47 Cameron Echols-Luper fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 26
OWN 46
+4
1.8%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 22
50
-5
1.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 27
OWN 45
0
1.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 36FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:114% → 3%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
3.7%
Justin Holman sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
3.3%
Justin Holman sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 16, Justin Holman fumbled, forced by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, recovered by ArkSt Ja'Von Rolland-Jones , return for 0 yards at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 37DOWNS
10 plays · 1 yds · 4:5099% → 98%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
1.1%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
1.1%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+6
0.9%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
0.7%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
0.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
0.7%
Johnston White run for no gain to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
0.6%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 14 Chad Voytik fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Chad VoytikSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
-1
1.7%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 38Uncategorized
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:552% → 2%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
1.7%
Michael Willett run for no gain to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+18
1.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 18 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
1.6%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
1.6%
Justin Holman run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+14
1.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Kendall Sanders 17 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)
-13.3
TD · Q3 14:09
Kendall Sanders 75 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)
-10.1
TD · Q2 9:31
Taylor Oldham 11 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com