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FLA

Florida 30 at Iowa 3

IOWA
2016 · Outback Bowl · Jan 2, 2017 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:47 · Johnny Townsend punt for 51 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Home team on offense−1.8Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Pregame prior−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:42: Eddy Pineiro 44 Yd Field Goal — FLA win probability +0.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:46: Mark Thompson 85 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +13.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:22: Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 1 yd to the Fla 21 — FLA win probability +4.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:48: DeAndre Goolsby 6 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +13.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:44: Chauncey Gardner 58 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +10.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:41IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:56IOWA 4th & 12 at FLA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42FLA 4th & 5 at IOWA 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:02IOWA 4th & 5 at FLA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:01FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:41IOWA 4th & 1 at FLA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−7.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:47FLA 4th & 19 at FLA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:02IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:55IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−3.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:35IOWA 4th & 4 at FLA 12, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−11.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:37IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:31FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:46FLA 4th & 8 at IOWA 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:57FLA 4th & 4 at IOWA 30, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:01IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:58FLA 4th & 7 at IOWA 47, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:12IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 9, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 1:46FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:48FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:44FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1INT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5053% → 52%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
47.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 16 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
47.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
47.4%
Powell, Brandon rush for 2 yards to the FLORIDA45, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Ivey, Martez) 10 yards to the FLORIDA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 20
OWN 33
0
47.6%
Austin Appleby pass intercepted Brandon Snyder return for no gain to the Iowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1948% → 48%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
47.7%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
47.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
47.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarron, broken up by Keivonnis DavisSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
47.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1452% → 52%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
47.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 7 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
47.8%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
48.2%
Austin Appleby pass intercepted Desmond King return for no gain to the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1449% → 49%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
49.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 11 yds to the Fla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
49.1%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 18Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
49.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to George KittleSimilar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
49.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to George KittleSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+36
48.7%
Keith Duncan 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:0851% → 52%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
49.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 34 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
48.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Iowa 40Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+8
48.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 8 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+1
48.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
48.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio Callaway, broken up by Joshua JacksonSimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
48.7%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 5 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
49.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
48.3%
Eddy Pineiro 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:2849% → 50%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
49.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
48.9%
C.J. Beathard run for 8 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
49.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
50.6%
C.J. Beathard run for 4 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
50.5%
Beathard, C.J. pass incomplete to Smith, Jerminic, PENALTY FLORIDA offside (Bryan, Taven) 5 yards to the FLORIDA48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
51.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Peter Pekar for 5 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
51.4%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
51.2%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
50.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5951% → 50%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
49.0%
Antonio Callaway run for 6 yds to the Fla 21 Antonio Callaway fumbled, recovered by FlaSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
48.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 3 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+1
48.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
49.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 12 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
48.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
47.9%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-7
48.6%
Austin Appleby sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+19
50.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 40 yds , Desmond King returns for 19 yds to the IOWA 46 IOWA Penalty, Illegal Block (Devonte Young) to the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 5:0951% → 53%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
51.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+27
51.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 27 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
53.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 11 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
53.6%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-2
53.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+18
52.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 18 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
54.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
54.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to George KittleSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
53.7%
C.J. Beathard run for 6 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
52.5%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:4451% → 50%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
49.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+46
48.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 46 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.8%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
45.9%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-8
46.2%
Austin Appleby sacked by Aaron Mends for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 14
OPP 46
-5
49.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 19
OWN 49
0
49.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3352% → 50%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
52.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
52.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
51.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
52.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to LeShun Daniels Jr.Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
51.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
51.3%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
50.2%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
36.3%
Mark Thompson 85 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4138% → 37%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-7
38.1%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Caleb Brantley for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 23Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
36.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for no gain to the Iowa 23Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+21
37.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 46 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 21 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4066% → 67%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
33.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 1 yd to the Iowa 47Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
34.4%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-4
32.7%
Austin Appleby sacked by Josey Jewell for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 7:2038% → 36%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
37.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 20 LeShun Daniels Jr. fumbled, recovered by Iowa George KittleSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+18
36.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 18 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
38.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+11
39.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 11 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
40.5%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+10
40.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 10 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
41.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+11
41.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 11 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
41.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+3
40.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
38.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
36.1%
Keith Duncan 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:3468% → 89%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 1 yd to the Fla 21Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
32.2%
Mark Thompson run for 7 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
30.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
29.9%
Austin Appleby run for 5 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
28.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
27.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
27.2%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+24
26.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Freddie Swain for 24 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
25.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 21 yds to the Iowa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
24.6%
Appleby, Austin pass complete to Cleveland, Tyrie for 9 yards to the IOWA0, PENALTY FLORIDA illegal motion 5 yards to the IOWA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
24.8%
Scarlett, Jordan rush for 1 yard to the IOWA13, PENALTY FLORIDA illegal formation 5 yards to the IOWA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+3
24.6%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+10
24.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 10 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.3%
DeAndre Goolsby 6 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16INT TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:5114% → 4%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
14.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 15 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
14.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
15.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to George Kittle, broken up by Marcell HarrisSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+58
4.2%
Chauncey Gardner 58 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:584% → 3%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
4.3%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
4.3%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
3.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to LeShun Daniels Jr.Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
3.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5598% → 98%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
2.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
2.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 1 yd to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
2.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
2.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
2.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19INT
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:153% → 3%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
2.7%
Beathard, C.J. pass incomplete to McCarron, Riley, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Dawson, Duke) 10 yards to the IOWA22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
2.7%
C.J. Beathard pass intercepted Chauncey Gardner return for 30 yds to the Iowa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1498% → 98%
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
1.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 9Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
1.6%
Austin Appleby run for 1 yd to the Iowa 8Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.6%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
1.7%
Eddy Pineiro 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:592% → 2%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
2.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 16 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
2.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to LeShun Daniels Jr.Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
2.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+23
1.5%
C.J. Beathard pass intercepted Daniel McMillian return for 23 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3399% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
1.1%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
0.9%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
0.8%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
0.3%
Eddy Pineiro 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to LeShun Daniels Jr.Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+20
0.1%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 45 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 20 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
50
+4
0.2%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
0.2%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-3
0.2%
Mark Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 45 yds, downed at the Iowa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
0.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+4
0.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Iowa 9Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
0.1%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to George KittleSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
0.1%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 46 yds, downed at the Fla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:46
Mark Thompson 85 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
-13.9
TD · Q3 0:48
DeAndre Goolsby 6 Yd pass from Austin Appleby (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
-13
TD · Q4 14:44
Chauncey Gardner 58 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
-10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com