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NCSU

NC State 41 at Vanderbilt 17

VAN
2016 · Camping World Independence Bowl · Dec 26, 2016 · Independence Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:32 · Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense−34.2Score differential−19.7Garbage-time factor−13.6Pregame prior−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:24: Jaylen Samuels 55 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Connor Haskins Kick) — NCSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:50: Reggie Gallaspy II 5 Yd Run (Connor Haskins Kick) — NCSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:58: Ralph Webb 30 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick) — VAN win probability +10.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:37: Khari Blasingame 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick) — VAN win probability +10.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:21: Nyheim Hines 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Connor Haskins Kick) — NCSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 12:03VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18NCSU 4th & 6 at VAN 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:06VAN 4th & 2 at NCSU 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:21NCSU 4th & 1 at VAN 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:34VAN 4th & 8 at NCSU 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−6.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:09NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:14VAN 4th & 10 at NCSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:17VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:02VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:44NCSU 4th & 6 at VAN 46, up 18
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:42VAN 4th & 17 at VAN 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:03NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:32VAN 4th & 6 at NCSU 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:53NCSU 4th & 11 at VAN 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:56VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:13VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:50NCSU 4th & 5 at VAN 8, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 9:08NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:24NCSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:50NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:34NCSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:58VAN Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:37VAN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:21NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:0260% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.2%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
40.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 6 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
40.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 16 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
40.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 11 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
40.5%
Meyers, Jakobi pass pass intercepted by McGaster, Torren at the VANDERBILT0, McGaster, Torren return 0 yards to the VANDERBILT0, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (McGaster, Torren) 15 yards to the VANDERBILT23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
40.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the Vandy 20 Matthew Dayes fumbled, forced by Arnold Tarpley, recovered by Vandy Arnold TarpleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5541% → 41%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
40.9%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 18Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
41.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
40.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
41.0%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4559% → 59%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
40.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+16
41.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 16 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
41.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
41.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
41.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
41.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:1242% → 44%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
41.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
42.0%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
42.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+25
42.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 25 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
43.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
43.2%
Darrius Sims run for no gain to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+5
43.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (Justin Jones) to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+2
43.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 2 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+52
44.3%
Tommy Openshaw 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:4556% → 55%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
44.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 16 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
43.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
43.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 1
50
+9
43.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
44.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+15
44.0%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (McGaster, Torren) 15 yards to the VANDERBILT21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
43.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 6 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+7
43.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 7 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
43.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
43.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
45.4%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2246% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
45.9%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+2
45.8%
Darrius Sims run for 2 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+8
45.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
46.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
46.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
46.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Trae Meadows return for no gain to the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:3054% → 60%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
45.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
45.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+8
46.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 8 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
45.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 13 yds to the Vandy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
45.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
45.3%
Jalan McClendon run for 3 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
40.2%
Jaylen Samuels 9 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Connor Haskins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:3442% → 43%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
42.4%
Kyle Shurmur run for 9 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
44.5%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+45
43.4%
Trent Sherfield run for 45 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
45.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
45.2%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-3
44.1%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Airius Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 9Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
42.8%
Tommy Openshaw 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:2559% → 59%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
41.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+10
41.5%
Ryan Finley run for 10 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
41.2%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
41.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5543% → 41%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
42.1%
Ralph Webb run for 16 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
44.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
44.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
42.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 10
OPP 48
+13
41.0%
Sam Loy punt for 42 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 13 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 0:5060% → 71%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
39.8%
Ryan Finley run for 7 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+15
39.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 15 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
37.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+55
29.5%
Jaylen Samuels 55 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Connor Haskins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:2430% → 30%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
30.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
29.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+14
29.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 14 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
30.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 5 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
30.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 8 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-6
30.0%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1829% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.8%
Darrius Sims run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
29.1%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+25
28.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Josh Jones return for 25 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:5273% → 87%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
26.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
26.3%
Stephen Louis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
26.5%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the Vandy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II 5 Yd Run (Connor Haskins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:4317% → 15%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
16.6%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
15.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Sam DobbsSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+13
15.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 13 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+7
16.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
50
0
16.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
50
+2
16.3%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-8
16.1%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Airius Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 16
OWN 44
+35
14.5%
Sam Loy punt for 49 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 35 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:2889% → 99%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
11.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
11.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+14
11.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 14 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
11.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
11.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 3 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+24
10.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 24 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
9.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
9.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the Vandy 17Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
1.4%
Jaylen Samuels 17 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Connor Haskins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:262% → 12%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Nathan MarcusSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.5%
Ralph Webb run for 15 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
1.5%
Kalija Lipscomb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
1.5%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
1.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
1.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
1.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Justin Skule) to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+7
1.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+10
1.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
1.3%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
1.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+30
11.7%
Ralph Webb 30 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:1495% → 95%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
5.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for 7 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+8
5.1%
Dakwa Nichols run for 8 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
5.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
50
0
4.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
50
+4
4.3%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
4.3%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
4.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:026% → 5%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
6.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
6.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 12
-7
5.9%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Kentavius Street for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 5Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 17
OWN 5
0
5.3%
Sam Loy punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3496% → 96%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
4.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
4.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
4.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+71
4.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 44 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 71 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:206% → 16%
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
6.2%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.7%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.8%
Khari Blasingame 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:494% → 4%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
4.3%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
4.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 15 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
4.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 11 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
4.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+5
4.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
4.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
4.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 3:3997% → 98%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
2.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
2.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
2.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
2.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-5
1.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 49Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
1.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Darrius Sims at the Vandy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 6 yds · 1:272% → 2%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
1.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 1 yd to the Vandy 8Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+8
1.8%
Kyle Shurmur run for 8 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
1.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+2
1.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
1.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-5
1.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay of Game (Kyle Shurmur) to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+6
1.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 6 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
1.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 9
OWN 19
-6
1.7%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Justin Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:2399% → 99%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
1.2%
Brady Bodine run for 2 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
1.1%
Jalan McClendon run for 1 yd to the Vandy 10Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+2
0.8%
Jalan McClendon run for 2 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+1
0.9%
Brady Bodine run for 1 yd to the Vandy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 27END OF GAME TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
1.3%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+4
1.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 4 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
1.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+10
1.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 10 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
0.5%
Niles Clark 32 Yd Interception Return Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:50
Reggie Gallaspy II 5 Yd Run (Connor Haskins Kick)
-13.4
TD · Q4 10:21
Nyheim Hines 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Connor Haskins Kick)
-11.5
TD · Q3 0:58
Ralph Webb 30 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com