Try the model
ARST

Arkansas State 36 at Texas State 14

TXST
2016 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2016 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:16 · Marcus Ripley punt for 55 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior−39.0Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:39: Connor White pass complete to Mason Hays for 4 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK) — TXST win probability +5.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:55: Tyler Siudzinski run for 34 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK) — TXST win probability +16.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:01: J.D. Houston 27 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +5.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:52: Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 7 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston PAT MISSED) — ARST win probability +11.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:49: Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 14 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +6.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:02ARST 4th & 15 at TXST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:02TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:16TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 35, up 6
    Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:01TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:11ARST 4th & 12 at TXST 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:05TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 10, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:22TXST 4th & 8 at ARST 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:22ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:55TXST 4th & 1 at ARST 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−3.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:50ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:01ARST 4th & 7 at TXST 10, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−11.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:54TXST 4th & 24 at TXST 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−6.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:52TXST 4th & 22 at TXST 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−4.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:30TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 38, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:16ARST 4th & 20 at ARST 15, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:22ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:35ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:39TXST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:55TXST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:52ARST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:49ARST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:30ARST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
9.1%
Tyler Jones sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 17 TEXAS STATE Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-5
9.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Willie Williams) to the TexSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+19
9.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 19 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
9.1%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
9.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+34
9.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 34 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
9.8%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
9.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete, broken up by Ishmael DavisSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
9.9%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
9.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
10.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-1
10.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-13
10.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 13 yards to the TexSt 5 TEXAS STATE Penalty, intentional grounding (Tyler Jones) to the TexSt 5Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 19
OWN 5
+15
10.2%
Ripley, Marcus punt 48 yards to the ASU47, Taylor, Blaise return to the TXST30 (Warner, Justin), PENALTY ASU roughing the kicker 15 yards to the TXST20, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
10.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
10.4%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
10.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
10.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+12
10.2%
Marcus Ripley punt for 41 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 12 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:1589% → 89%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
11.5%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 7
50
+13
11.5%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+31
11.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 31 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.3%
Johnston White run for 6 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
11.7%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Watts for 10 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
11.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-5
11.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jacob Rowland) to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 13
OWN 29
-2
11.7%
Connor White sacked by Chase Robison for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-1
11.6%
Connor White run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+8
11.5%
Marcus Ripley punt for 55 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
12.3%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
12.2%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
12.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+1
12.4%
Damon Foncham punt for 27 yds , Tyler Watts returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
13.4%
Connor White pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
13.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 7 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-2
13.7%
Connor White sacked by Waylon Roberson for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
13.2%
Marcus Ripley punt for 40 yds, downed at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 44 yds · 2:2387% → 86%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
13.4%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
13.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+5
13.7%
Hansen, Justice deep out pass incomplete to Murray, Chris, PENALTY TXST offside (Vinson, Hal) 5 yards to the ASU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-5
13.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+10
13.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 10 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
13.3%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+35
13.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 35 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
13.3%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 42 Justice Hansen fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Justice Hansen , return for no gain to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
13.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Daryl Rollins-DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+2
13.8%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
14.5%
Damon Foncham punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
14.7%
Connor White pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
14.7%
Tyler Siudzinski run for no gain to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
14.4%
Connor White pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+8
14.3%
Marcus Ripley punt for 42 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 8 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:2586% → 89%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
13.7%
Warren Wand run for 18 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
11.0%
Warren Wand run for 26 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:1312% → 14%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.1%
Connor White run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.1%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Watts for 10 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
12.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+38
12.2%
Connor White pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 38 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
13.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-1
13.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+5
12.6%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Watts for 5 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
13.1%
Connor White pass incomplete to Nicholas PletschetteSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
14.5%
Connor White pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+2
13.8%
Connor White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
13.8%
Marcus Ripley 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Blaise Taylor Ja'Von Rolland-Jones return for 12 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
11.9%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
11.8%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
11.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-1
12.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+8
12.3%
Damon Foncham punt for 34 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
16 plays · 46 yds · 5:0514% → 20%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
14.2%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
14.2%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Watts for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+10
14.2%
Connor White run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
14.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-18
14.9%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 29 TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 26
OPP 44
+31
13.4%
Connor White run for 31 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
15.2%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
15.2%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Watts for 4 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
14.3%
Connor White pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+3
14.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Ja'Von Rolland-Jones) to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
14.2%
Mayberry, Stedman rush over right guard for 1 yard to the ASU3 (Odom, Chris), PENALTY ASU offside (Odom, Chris) 2 yards to the ASU2, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
15.3%
Connor White run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.2%
Connor White pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.3%
Connor White pass complete to Mason Hays for 4 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4782% → 81%
Q2 0:47
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+8
18.0%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
17.0%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
16.6%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38 Johnston White fumbled, forced by Bryan London, recovered by ArkSt Colton JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+10
19.5%
Sherman, James kickoff 65 yards to the ASU0, touchback, PENALTY ASU holding (Bayless, Omar) 10 yards to the TXST45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.4%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
18.0%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
18.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 6 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
18.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 46 yds, downed at the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:2420% → 38%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
20.0%
Connor White run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
19.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+7
20.3%
Connor White pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 7 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
21.4%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
20.6%
Connor White pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+16
19.9%
Connor White pass complete to Brendon Rushing for 16 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
22.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-1
22.3%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Watts for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+8
21.6%
Connor White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+34
38.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 34 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
35.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
36.1%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+4
37.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
38.1%
Damon Foncham punt for 27 yds , Tyler Watts returns for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
40.1%
Connor White pass intercepted Cody Brown return for 25 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4468% → 73%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
32.2%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+12
31.9%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
31.9%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-2
31.9%
Johnston White run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
33.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
27.4%
J.D. Houston 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
31.1%
Thurman Morbley run for 9 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
31.9%
Connor White pass complete to Mason Hays for 7 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+3
33.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
34.0%
Connor White sacked by Griffin Riggs for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 18
OWN 41
-10
31.0%
Printz, Eddie rush over right tackle for loss of 2 yards to the TXST39 (Rolland-Jones, J.), PENALTY TXST holding (Rowland, Jacob) 10 yards to the TXST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 28
OWN 31
-2
30.1%
Connor White sacked by Dee Liner and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 30
OWN 29
+6
28.6%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 6 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 24
OWN 35
0
28.1%
Marcus Ripley punt for 39 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:2870% → 87%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
29.8%
Warren Wand run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
27.5%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-5
27.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+36
29.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 21 yds to the TEXSTATE 40 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brandon McDowell) to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
25.4%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
25.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+14
26.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 14 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
25.4%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
25.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Jemar Clark) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
25.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
13.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 7 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.6%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
15.7%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
17.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Caleb Caston for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
16.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Tyler Watts, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 16
OWN 31
-6
15.6%
Tyler Jones sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+22
15.0%
Marcus Ripley punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 22 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:2688% → 96%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
11.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Daryl Rollins-Davis for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
11.7%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
11.9%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
11.2%
Warren Wand run for 14 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
11.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
4.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 14 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+12
5.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 12 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
6.1%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 12
OWN 11
0
6.0%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Chris Humes return for no gain to the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:1596% → 100%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
4.2%
Chad Voytik run for 6 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+3
4.2%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+1
4.3%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
4.2%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.2%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
3.1%
Hansen, Justice middle pass incomplete to Echols-Luper, Cam, PENALTY TXST pass interference (O'Roy, Javante) 1 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
2.9%
Voytik, Chad rush over left end for 2 yards to the TXST0, clock 05:59, PENALTY ASU holding (Hill, Jonah) 10 yards to the TXST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
3.0%
Chad Voytik run for 10 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
1.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-3
1.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+2
1.0%
Eddie Printz run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+37
1.0%
Marcus Ripley punt for 37 yds, downed at the TEXSTATE 25 TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 2:27100% → 99%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.5%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
0.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Austin Moreton) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
0.6%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-7
0.5%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
0.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 62 yds, downed at the TexSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
0.6%
A.J. Krawczyk run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 16
OWN 17
-1
0.6%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:55
Tyler Siudzinski run for 34 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q4 14:52
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 7 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston PAT MISSED)
-11.7
TD · Q4 9:49
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 14 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com