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ULM

UL Monroe 37 at Georgia State 23

GAST
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:49 · Dayton Balvanz punt for 41 yds, downed at the GeoSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+22.7Home team on offense−0.7Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:59: Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +12.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:56: Thomas Koufie run for 18 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +12.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:23: Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +18.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:48: Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +20.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:14: Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +20.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 15 at GAST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:02ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:49ULM 4th & 17 at GAST 42, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 3 at ULM 49, down 2
    Close callPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:45ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:32GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:45ULM 4th & 1 at GAST 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−1.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ULM 4th & 6 at GAST 30, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:13GAST 4th & 7 at ULM 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−12.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:48GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 1 at GAST 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−3.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−15.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:14GAST 4th & 1 at ULM 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%−1.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−5.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:23GAST 4th & 5 at ULM 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:23ULM 4th & 2 at GAST 14, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 5:59ULM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:24GAST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:49GAST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:56ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:43GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:23ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:48ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:14ULM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
76.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 14 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
76.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 5 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-3
76.5%
Marcus Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+12
76.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 12 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
76.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
76.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 12 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
76.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Xavier Brown) to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Duke Carter IVSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2SF
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4876% → 75%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
75.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jawan Nobles, broken up by Tre' HunterSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
75.8%
Darius Stubbs run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-5
75.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Sebastian Willer) to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+9
75.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 9 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 1
OWN 16
-16
74.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards for a SAFETY GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal batting ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
75.0%
Markis McCray run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+8
75.1%
Marcus Green run for 8 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
75.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+6
75.3%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 51 yds , Cedric Stone returns for 6 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
74.4%
Glenn Smith run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+8
74.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
74.7%
Conner Manning sacked by David Griffith for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+5
74.4%
Conner Manning run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
74.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jawan NoblesSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+5
74.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 36 yds , Marcus Green returns for 5 yds to the LaMon 40 UL MONROE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the LaMon 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
73.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 16 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
72.9%
Caleb Evans run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
72.7%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 37 Caleb Evans fumbled, recovered by LaMon Caleb EvansSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
72.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 12
OPP 37
-5
73.3%
Caleb Evans sacked by Michael Shaw for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
73.8%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 41 yds, downed at the GeoSt 1Similar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
73.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 4 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+10
73.4%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:5472% → 72%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
72.4%
Conner Manning run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+7
72.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jawan Nobles for 7 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+2
72.0%
Darius Stubbs run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+32
72.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 32 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
73.5%
Darius Stubbs run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
73.6%
Darius Stubbs run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 4
50
+1
73.5%
Darius Stubbs run for 1 yd to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
72.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1029% → 30%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
70.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 12 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
70.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
70.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
70.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+5
70.4%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 53 yds , Cedric Stone returns for 5 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
70.5%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
70.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+36
69.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 46 yds to the GEORGIAST 49 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal block (Jawan Nobles) to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.2%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
71.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
71.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+17
70.6%
Oliver Holdensen punt for 36 yds , Marcus Green returns for 17 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:4632% → 46%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
68.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
67.6%
Thomas Koufie run for 7 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
67.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+9
68.0%
Thomas Koufie run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
67.4%
Carter, Duke rush for 2 yards to the GSU43 (Middleton, C.), PENALTY GSU offside defense (Laurent, Julien) 5 yards to the GSU40, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
67.2%
Duke Carter IV run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-3
66.4%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+7
67.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 7 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
68.0%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
66.4%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Carter, Duke (McGee, Alonzo), PENALTY GSU pass interference (McGee, Alonzo) 15 yards to the GSU14, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
66.4%
Thomas Koufie run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.9%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:3556% → 69%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
56.3%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+9
56.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jawan Nobles for 9 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+6
55.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 6 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
56.7%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+19
56.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 19 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
58.3%
Darius Stubbs run for 11 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
59.0%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
59.0%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+1
58.9%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
68.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 31 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 1:2437% → 39%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
62.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 7 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+23
61.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 23 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
59.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
59.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+12
61.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 12 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
58.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 4 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
59.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
60.6%
Craig Ford 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1164% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
64.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+17
64.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
74.3%
Robert Davis 58 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:5331% → 45%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
69.0%
Duke Carter IV run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
69.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+13
69.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 13 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
67.8%
Thomas Koufie run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
55.1%
Thomas Koufie run for 18 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:1360% → 75%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
60.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
62.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+61
74.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jawan Nobles for 61 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:2027% → 50%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
73.1%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
73.3%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+7
73.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Alec Osborne for 7 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
72.4%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+27
72.4%
Thomas Koufie run for 27 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
69.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-9
68.4%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 21 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 19
OPP 31
+20
69.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 20 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
68.4%
Thomas Koufie run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
68.4%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.6%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:1056% → 57%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+78
56.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 78 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
62.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
62.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jawan NoblesSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+8
58.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 8 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
56.8%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Colton MooreheadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:2550% → 72%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
50.1%
Thomas Koufie run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
48.6%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
48.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
48.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 4 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
48.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Duke Carter IV for 35 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.8%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
31.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 4 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-3
31.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
29.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
28.3%
Oliver Holdensen punt for 29 yds, downed at the GeoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
14 plays · 49 yds · 6:0273% → 94%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
27.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
27.3%
Thomas Koufie run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+6
27.6%
Thomas Koufie run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
26.5%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
26.5%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
27.4%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
26.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
26.5%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+2
27.2%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+4
30.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, offside defense (Carnell Hopson) to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+1
30.0%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
26.3%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+6
26.3%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 3:518% → 7%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
7.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
7.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
8.0%
Conner Manning sacked by Tyler Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+17
7.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jawan Nobles for 17 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
8.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
8.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jawan Nobles for 9 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
8.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+3
8.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
8.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Ari WertsSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
8.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+5
8.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
6.9%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21END OF GAME
14 plays · 37 yds · 5:0095% → 99%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
4.8%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+12
4.9%
Thomas Koufie run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
4.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
3.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
3.1%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
2.1%
Thomas Koufie run for no gain to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
2.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+6
2.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+2
1.0%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:48
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q4 9:14
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-20.1
TD · Q3 6:23
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com