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NMSU

New Mexico State 22 at Arkansas State 41

ARST
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:24 · Peyton Theisler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+17.9Home team on offense+19.0Score differential+7.0Garbage-time factor+5.2Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:20: Warren Wand run for 3 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +4.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:36: Cameron Echols-Luper pass complete to Blake Mack for 35 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +3.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:07: Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 41 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:56: Larry Rose III run for 11 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:04: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:33NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 49, down 13
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:04ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 17, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:18NMSU 4th & 10 at ARST 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:18ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:45NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:20NMSU 4th & 13 at ARST 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:25NMSU 4th & 4 at ARST 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:25NMSU 4th & 13 at ARST 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54NMSU 4th & 27 at NMSU 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.0
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:51ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:37NMSU 4th & 2 at ARST 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:24NMSU 4th & 22 at NMSU 19, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:44ARST 4th & 1 at NMSU 44, up 19
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:55NMSU 4th & 30 at NMSU 12, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 31, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:21ARST 4th & 4 at NMSU 14, up 26
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:21NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 20, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:18ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 48, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:04ARST 4th & 5 at NMSU 23, up 26
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:04ARST 4th & 11 at NMSU 29, up 26
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:02ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:12ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:20ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:36ARST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:07ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:56NMSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:02ARST Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:04NMSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 39 yds, downed at the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
89.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
89.7%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 14:33
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
89.8%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 14:33
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+1
89.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 89 yds · 1:4989% → 89%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
89.3%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+46
89.3%
Warren Wand run for 46 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
89.4%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
89.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+40
89.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 40 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4INT TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4311% → 10%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
89.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
89.0%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+46
89.7%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Money Hunter return for 46 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
89.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 11 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
89.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 2 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
89.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
89.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
89.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
90.2%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
90.1%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
90.0%
Damon Foncham punt for 32 yds, downed at the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4710% → 12%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
89.6%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+20
89.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 20 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
89.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-3
89.4%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
89.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
88.5%
Parker Davidson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
88.9%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
88.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 7 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
88.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
88.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 12 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
88.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
88.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
88.2%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
88.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
88.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+12
88.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
88.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 44 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 4:3288% → 93%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
88.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+16
88.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 16 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
88.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+9
88.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 9 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
88.2%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
88.5%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+11
88.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 11 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
88.6%
Chad Voytik run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+10
88.6%
Johnston White run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
88.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 7 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+8
88.6%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
88.6%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
92.9%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
91.3%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
91.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, HL (-8 Yards) to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 18
OWN 31
+29
91.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 29 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
91.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-5
91.4%
Larry Rose III run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 28 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Josh Aganon) to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 13
OPP 43
0
91.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
91.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
92.8%
Rollins-Davis rush for 7 yards to the ASU21 (Hanks,Terrill;Wright,Jaden), PENALTY ASU clipping (Moreton, Austin) 6 yards to the ASU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 16
OWN 8
+12
92.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
92.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
92.9%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+26
92.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Daryl Rollins-Davis for 26 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
93.2%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for 16 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Money HunterSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
91.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+3
91.3%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+11
91.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 11 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
90.7%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-2
90.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-2
91.1%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 8
OPP 25
-5
91.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 13
OPP 30
-4
92.0%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Kyle Wilson for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:2293% → 97%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
93.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 22 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
93.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
93.5%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+35
96.7%
Cameron Echols-Luper pass complete to Blake Mack for 35 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 1:365% → 5%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
95.3%
Tre Wilcoxen sacked by Donovan Ransom for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+19
95.6%
Xavier Hall run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
95.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+14
95.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+7
95.1%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
94.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
95.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 9 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+38
95.2%
Parker Davidson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
96.0%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
95.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
96.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 18
-14
96.0%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Darrius Rosser and Chris Odom for a loss of 14 yards to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 27
OWN 4
0
96.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
1 play · 41 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
99.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 41 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:111% → 4%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.2%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
99.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+2
99.2%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+16
99.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 16 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
99.1%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Chris Odom) to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+11
96.0%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
97.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+2
97.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
97.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
96.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 64 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
96.8%
Taylor,Tyrian pass incomplete to Boone,Johnathan, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Ellis-Brewer, T) 15 yards to the NMSU49, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
96.7%
Larry Rose III run for 21 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
96.4%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+14
96.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 14 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
96.3%
Xavier Hall run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
96.1%
Johnston White run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
94.7%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Chris Odom for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+1
95.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 16
OWN 25
-6
95.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 22
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
97.0%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
97.0%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
96.9%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
96.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+27
95.8%
Larry Rose III run for 27 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Cody BrownSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
95.5%
Xavier Hall run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38 Xavier Hall fumbled, forced by Xavier Woodson-Luster, recovered by NMxSt Anthony MuseSimilar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-15
95.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 19
OWN 23
-11
95.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Johnathan Boone) to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 30
OWN 12
0
95.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Clayton GranchSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 30
OWN 12
0
95.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:4997% → 99%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
97.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 9 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+5
97.3%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
97.3%
Warren Wand run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
97.3%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.7%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
99.7%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+2
99.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+11
99.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 46 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 11 yds to the ArkSt 42 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27MISSED FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 6:48100% → 100%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.6%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 10 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for no gain to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+31
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 31 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.6%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+4
99.6%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.6%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-61
99.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-61 Yards) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 68
OWN 22
+59
99.5%
Justice Hansen run for 59 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+5
99.6%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
99.7%
J.D. Houston 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 45 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 7 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.8%
Chad Voytik run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 2
50
0
99.8%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 2
50
-2
99.8%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 4
OWN 48
-2
99.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 22 yds , Gamar Girdy returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 28 Gamar Girdy fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by ArkSt Money HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Christian Booker for 1 yd to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 5
OPP 23
-6
99.8%
Chad Voytik run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Jaylon Marshall) to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+4
99.8%
Chad Voytik run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:430% → 3%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.9%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Larry Rose III run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 20 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+25
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 25 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:20
Warren Wand run for 3 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (J.D. Houston KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q2 1:36
Cameron Echols-Luper pass complete to Blake Mack for 35 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q3 13:07
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 41 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com