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ULM

UL Monroe 10 at Arkansas State 51

ARST
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:47 · Caleb Evans pass intercepted Mark Johnson return for 16 yds to the ArkSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+6.9Home team on offense+35.2Score differential+29.5Blowout margin+17.0Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:03: Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 3 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +1.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:25: Chad Voytik pass complete to Warren Wand for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +3.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:21: Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 8 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 5:06: Craig Ford 21 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +7.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:01: Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:01ARST 4th & 5 at ULM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:55ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:57ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:18ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:36ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:21ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 35, down 21
    Close callPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:47ULM 4th & 7 at ARST 19, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    -1.4%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:06ULM 4th & 4 at ARST 4, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    -2.2%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:37ARST 4th & 1 at ULM 6, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 26, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:20ULM 4th & 7 at ARST 38, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:52ARST 4th & 9 at ULM 10, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:04ARST 4th & 12 at midfield, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 6 at ARST 20, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:58ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 25, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:47ULM 4th & 6 at ARST 37, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:41ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 30, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:01ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:03ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:25ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:21ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:01ARST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:37ARST Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:20ARST Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:07ULM Touchdown, down 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 1:5984% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
83.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 11 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
83.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+22
83.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 22 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
83.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren Wand, broken up by Stephen AmoakoSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
83.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
83.9%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Sanders, K., PENALTY ULM offside defense (Griffith, David) 5 yards to the ULM28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
83.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+28
83.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 28 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
83.7%
Will Collins pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-2
83.7%
Will Collins sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 14
OWN 30
-1
83.8%
Will Collins pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
83.8%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 45 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:2784% → 85%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
83.7%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
83.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
83.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
83.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 11 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
83.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Chris Murray) to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+50
83.7%
Johnston White run for 50 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
83.9%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 3 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
84.5%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-5
84.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Alec Osborne) to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+6
84.6%
Will Collins pass complete to Duke Carter IV for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
84.6%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
84.7%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
85.4%
Cameron Echols-Luper run for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
85.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
85.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
85.1%
Damon Foncham punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
85.0%
Duke Carter IV run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+10
85.0%
Will Collins pass complete to Rj Turner for 10 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
84.9%
Duke Carter IV run for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-2
84.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
85.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 9
OWN 44
-5
85.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Austin Vaughn) to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
85.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
85.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Blake Mack) to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 5:1986% → 91%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
85.7%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+3
85.8%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+6
85.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 6 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
85.8%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+22
85.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 22 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendall SandersSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
86.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 16 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
86.2%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+12
86.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
86.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 31 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
86.9%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 2Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Warren Wand for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
90.5%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 17Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+5
90.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Ja'Von Rolland-Jones) to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
90.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+6
90.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 6 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
90.4%
Ben Luckett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-1
90.1%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
90.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Alec OsborneSimilar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+1
90.5%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 37 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:4292% → 96%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
91.7%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
91.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+21
91.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 21 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+41
92.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 41 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
92.0%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
96.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 8 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 5:154% → 11%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
95.5%
Will Collins run for 1 yd to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
95.6%
Will Collins pass complete to Ben Luckett for 7 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
95.7%
Collins, Will pass incomplete to Brown, Xavier, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Byner, Brandon) 15 yards to the ASU48, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
95.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
95.5%
Will Collins run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
95.2%
Will Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+4
95.3%
Duke Carter IV run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
95.4%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Duke Carter IVSimilar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+10
96.5%
Will Collins pass complete to Ben Luckett for 10 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
96.7%
Marcus Green run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
96.3%
Will Collins run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.4%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
89.3%
Craig Ford 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5493% → 98%
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
92.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 4 yds to the LaMon 2Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.8%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the LaMon 1Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
97.5%
Will Collins run for 2 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+33
97.5%
Will Collins pass intercepted Blaise Taylor return for 33 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3098% → 99%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.1%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
98.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 11 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
98.2%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
98.2%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
98.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 3 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.8%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Xavier Woodson-LusterSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:3299% → 99%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+39
99.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 24 yds to the ARKST 36 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Wesley Thompson) to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+5
99.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, offside defense (Juwan Offray) to the LaMon 15Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 4
OPP 15
0
99.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
99.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+5
99.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, roughing the kicker (Tyler Johnson) to the LaMon 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Nick IngramSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 2 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 8 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
99.4%
Will Collins sacked by Trent Ellis for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+32
99.5%
Will Collins pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 32 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.3%
Duke Carter IV run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
99.3%
Duke Carter IV run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 7
OPP 38
-12
99.3%
Will Collins sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 12 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
50
+13
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jaylon Marshall for 13 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
99.6%
Justice Hansen run for 12 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.6%
Cameron Echols-Luper run for 3 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+11
99.6%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Sanders, K., PENALTY ULM illegal use of hands 11 yards to the ULM11, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.6%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
99.7%
J.D. Houston 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Thomas Koufie for 2 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.7%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
99.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 61 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
99.7%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
99.7%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.7%
Logan Moragne run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+7
99.7%
Darveon Brown run for 7 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.7%
Logan Moragne run for no gain to the LaMon 48Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-9
99.7%
Chad Voytik sacked by Nick Ingram for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+7
99.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Johnston White for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 12
50
+2
99.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 44 yds , Tre' Perrier returns for 2 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 72 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
99.8%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Tajhea ChambersSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+66
99.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 66 yds Xavier Brown fumbled, forced by Kyle Martin, recovered by LaMon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.8%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
99.8%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 17
-3
99.8%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Rj Turner, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Chad Voytik run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-1
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 43 yds, downed at the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
99.9%
Caleb Evans run for 12 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Duke Carter IV for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+16
99.9%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Mark Johnson return for 16 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Darveon BrownSimilar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 37 yds , Tre' Perrier returns for 2 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26END OF GAME
14 plays · 59 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 1 yd to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Will Collins pass complete to Alec Osborne for 5 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Will Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
99.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Will Collins run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+20
99.9%
Will Collins pass complete to Markis McCray for 20 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.9%
Will Collins run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
99.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.9%
Austin Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.9%
Will Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 5:06
Craig Ford 21 yd FG GOOD
-7.2
TD · Q2 4:01
Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 10:21
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 8 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com