Try the model
UTM

UT Martin 6 at Georgia State 31

GAST
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Georgia Dome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFUMBLETDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:41 · Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Ari Werts, broken up by Kahlid Hagens
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+30.3Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:02: Aaron Winchester pass complete to Glenn Smith for 7 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +2.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:59: Mitch Mersman 44 yd FG GOOD — UTM win probability +2.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05: TEAM run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25 — UTM win probability +5.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FUMBLE · Q3 4:51: Najee Ray run for no gain Najee Ray fumbled, forced by Kaleb Ringer, recovered by GeoSt Marterious Allen , return for 23 yds, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +9.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:41: Gunnar Holcombe pass intercepted for a TD B.J. Clay return for 38 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UTM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 8:41GAST 4th & 1 at UTM 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:24UTM 4th & 1 at UTM 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:56UTM 4th & 11 at UTM 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53UTM 4th & 10 at UTM 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:37GAST 4th & 15 at GAST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:52UTM 4th & 13 at UTM 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:33GAST 4th & 6 at UTM 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:33UTM 4th & 6 at GAST 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:59UTM 4th & 16 at GAST 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00GAST 4th & 21 at GAST 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−3.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:13UTM 4th & 9 at UTM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:06GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:34UTM 4th & 21 at UTM 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−3.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:49GAST 4th & 6 at UTM 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 38, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:48UTM 4th & 7 at GAST 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:11UTM 4th & 14 at GAST 38, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:02GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:41GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:34GAST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTMDrive 1INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
83.3%
Troy Cook pass complete to Ben Axline for 23 yds to the TnMar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
83.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
83.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for no gain to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
83.3%
Troy Cook pass intercepted Trey Payne return for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2DOWNS
17 plays · 55 yds · 4:2683% → 82%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
82.9%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
82.9%
Aaron Winchester pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+8
82.8%
Aaron Winchester run for 8 yds to the TnMar 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
82.9%
Darius Stubbs run for 4 yds to the TnMar 41Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+10
82.9%
Aaron Winchester run for 10 yds to the TnMar 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
83.0%
Aaron Winchester run for 5 yds to the TnMar 26Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
83.0%
Darius Stubbs run for 4 yds to the TnMar 22Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-5
82.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TnMar 27Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+6
82.9%
Aaron Winchester run for 6 yds to the TnMar 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
83.0%
Darius Stubbs run for no gain to the TnMar 21Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
83.0%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Ari Werts, broken up by Kahlid HagensSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-9
81.8%
Winchester, A. rush for 21 yards to the UTM0, clock 08:41, PENALTY GSU holding (Mobley, Gabe) 9 yards to the UTM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 19
OPP 30
+19
81.5%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Ari Werts for 19 yds to the TnMar 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
81.9%
Darius Stubbs run for 6 yds to the TnMar 5Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-2
81.9%
Aaron Winchester run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 7Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+5
81.8%
Darius Stubbs run for 5 yds to the TnMar 2Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
81.6%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Ari Werts, broken up by Kahlid HagensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
80.7%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 2 yds to the TnMar 4Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+6
80.7%
Troy Cook pass complete to Greg McKillion for 6 yds to the TnMar 10Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+1
80.9%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 1 yd to the TnMar 11Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
81.0%
Brett Arkelian punt for 40 yds, downed at the GeoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:5381% → 83%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
80.6%
Aaron Winchester run for 16 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
80.8%
Aaron Winchester run for 1 yd to the TnMar 34Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+10
80.8%
Tra Barnett run for 10 yds to the TnMar 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
80.9%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Robert Davis for 4 yds to the TnMar 20Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+13
80.9%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Darius Stubbs for 13 yds to the TnMar 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.9%
Aaron Winchester run for no gain to the TnMar 7Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.0%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Glenn Smith for 7 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
82.4%
Najee Ray run for 4 yds to the TnMar 26Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
82.3%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Najee RaySimilar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
82.6%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Greg McKillion, broken up by B.J. ClaySimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 6
OWN 26
-5
82.9%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, false start (Joseph Este) to the TnMar 21Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
83.0%
Brett Arkelian punt for 51 yds, downed at the GeoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
82.7%
Aaron Winchester pass intercepted Joseph Este return for no gain to the TnMar 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
82.2%
Troy Cook run for 9 yds to the TnMar 40Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+8
81.6%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 8 yds to the TnMar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.5%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for no gain to the TnMar 48Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
81.8%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Terrance HollingsworthSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
82.1%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Kyle Kerrick, broken up by Mackendy CheridorSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
82.7%
Brett Arkelian punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
82.6%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 22
OWN 14
+4
82.3%
Darius Stubbs run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+3
82.0%
Aaron Winchester run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 15
OWN 21
-5
81.6%
Brandon Wright punt for 45 yds , Londell Lee returns for a loss of 5 yards to the TnMar 29Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-14
82.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-14 Yards) to the GeoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5518% → 16%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
81.9%
Marquez Grayson run for 4 yds to the TnMar 33Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-15
81.7%
COOK, Troy pass complete to KERRICK, Kyle for 28 yards to the GSU39 (Williams, Bryan), PENALTY UTM pass interference (KERRICK, Kyle) 15 yards to the UTM18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 21
OWN 18
+8
82.2%
Marquez Grayson run for 8 yds to the TnMar 26Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
83.5%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Ben Axline TENN MARTIN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
83.8%
Brett Arkelian punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:0284% → 85%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
83.6%
Kendrick Dorn run for 3 yds to the TnMar 44Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
83.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Gabe Mobley) to the TnMar 49Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+43
83.1%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Glenn Smith for 43 yds to the TnMar 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.9%
Darius Stubbs run for no gain to the TnMar 6Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.9%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.5%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
84.5%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 11FG
17 plays · 47 yds · 5:3415% → 17%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
84.9%
Jaimiee Bowe run for a loss of 5 yards to the TnMar 21Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+5
85.2%
Troy Cook run for 5 yds to the TnMar 26Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-5
85.3%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TnMar 21Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+37
85.5%
Troy Cook pass complete to Rod Williams II for 37 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
83.5%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Caylon Weathers, broken up by B.J. ClaySimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
83.8%
Troy Cook pass complete to Jaimiee Bowe for 6 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
83.4%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-5
83.9%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, false start (Kadarren Bond) to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+17
84.4%
Troy Cook pass complete to Greg McKillion for 17 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
82.8%
COOK, Troy pass complete to McELRATH, CJ for 16 yards to the GSU5 (Williams, Bryan;Sullivan, C.), PENALTY UTM ineligible downfield on pass (NEWSOM, Austin) 5 yards to the GSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 15
OPP 26
0
83.6%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Londell LeeSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 15
OPP 26
-1
83.9%
Jaimiee Bowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 16
OPP 27
0
84.8%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Londell LeeSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+44
83.5%
Mitch Mersman 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12INT
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:4383% → 84%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
83.0%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+35
83.4%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Todd Boyd for 35 yds to the TnMar 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
84.3%
Aaron Winchester pass intercepted Kevin Prather Jr. return for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
79.2%
TEAM run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.7%
Darius Stubbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
81.5%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Glenn Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-5
80.6%
Aaron Winchester sacked by Caleb Counce for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 14 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
79.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 34 , Londell Lee returns for no gain to the TnMar 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
80.1%
Troy Cook pass complete to Greg McKillion for a loss of 3 yards to the TnMar 31Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-5
80.8%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, false start (Robert Burleigh) to the TnMar 26Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+9
81.0%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 9 yds to the TnMar 35Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
81.2%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Greg McKillion, broken up by B.J. ClaySimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
81.6%
Brett Arkelian punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
81.6%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
81.4%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+3
80.5%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 3 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+4
80.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 43 yds , Londell Lee returns for 4 yds to the TnMar 36 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal motion (B.J. Clay) to the TnMar 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.9%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Greg McKillionSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-7
80.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for a loss of 7 yards to the TnMar 27Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 17
OWN 27
-4
81.6%
Marquez Grayson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TnMar 23Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 21
OWN 23
-2
82.1%
Brett Arkelian punt for 37 yds , Cedric Stone returns for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
84.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Gabe Mobley) to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+18
83.4%
Aaron Winchester run for 18 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.1%
Darius Stubbs run for 2 yds to the TnMar 47Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
85.2%
Aaron Winchester run for no gain to the TnMar 47Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+2
84.2%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the TnMar 45Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
83.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 19FUMBLE TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3720% → 11%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
80.0%
Najee Ray run for 7 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+23
89.5%
Najee Ray run for no gain Najee Ray fumbled, forced by Kaleb Ringer, recovered by GeoSt Marterious Allen , return for 23 yds, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 20INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
97.1%
Gunnar Holcombe pass intercepted for a TD B.J. Clay return for 38 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 21INT
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:413% → 2%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.2%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Kyle Kerrick for 9 yds to the TnMar 29Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+10
97.1%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 10 yds to the TnMar 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
97.1%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 8 yds to the TnMar 47Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
96.9%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Greg McKillion for 10 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
97.1%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
97.1%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Terrance Hollingsworth for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+4
97.0%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Greg McKillion for 4 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
96.7%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
96.6%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Jaimiee Bowe for 7 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+4
96.9%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.7%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
98.2%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Caylon Weathers, broken up by Marterious AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.5%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
98.5%
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
98.5%
Aaron Winchester run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.5%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
98.6%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-4
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
98.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 23FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:291% → 3%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Londell LeeSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.9%
Marquez Grayson run for 7 yds to the TnMar 31Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+11
98.8%
Troy Cook pass complete to Ben Axline for 11 yds to the TnMar 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
98.8%
Marquez Grayson run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
98.8%
Marquez Grayson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+10
98.6%
Troy Cook pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 10 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
98.6%
Troy Cook pass complete to Londell Lee for 3 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
98.6%
Jaimiee Bowe run for no gain to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
98.7%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Ben AxlineSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
97.2%
Mitch Mersman 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:1498% → 100%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.4%
Darius Stubbs run for 4 yds to the TnMar 41Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+6
98.4%
Darius Stubbs run for 6 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.8%
Darius Stubbs run for 35 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 25DOWNS
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:230% → 0%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.8%
Troy Cook pass complete to Kyle Kerrick for 10 yds to the TnMar 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.7%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 7 yds to the TnMar 36Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Greg McKillionSimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+3
99.7%
Troy Cook pass complete to Londell Lee for 3 yds to the TnMar 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Kyle KerrickSimilar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
99.7%
Troy Cook pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 14 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
99.7%
Troy Cook pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 13 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
99.6%
COOK, Troy pass incomplete to GAMMON, Jack, PENALTY UTM personal foul 15 yards to the GSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+13
99.6%
Troy Cook pass complete to Ty Brown for 13 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
99.7%
Troy Cook pass incomplete to Jaylon Moore, broken up by Kaleb RingerSimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+3
99.7%
Ty Brown run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 9
OPP 33
-5
99.9%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 14
OPP 38
+12
99.9%
Troy Cook pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 12 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-11
99.9%
Kirk, Demarcus rush for 1 yard to the GSU27 (DANIEL, Demonta), PENALTY GSU holding (Hawkins, Akil) 11 yards to the GSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 21
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 21
OWN 15
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 4:51
Najee Ray run for no gain Najee Ray fumbled, forced by Kaleb Ringer, recovered by GeoSt Marterious Allen , return for 23 yds, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q3 4:41
Gunnar Holcombe pass intercepted for a TD B.J. Clay return for 38 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
+5.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05
TEAM run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com