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GAST

Georgia State 21 at Troy 31

TROY
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-6.6TROY 89.2%Conner Manning pass complete to AriWerts for 14 yds for a TD, (Rogier TenLohuis KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 31 · Q4 7:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:33 · Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 14 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 178Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+15.0Garbage-time factor+5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6Score differential+5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:27: Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 25 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +13.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:03: Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 65 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +16.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:08: Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds for a TD, (J. son Run For Two-point Conversion) — TROY win probability +21.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:24: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 15 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +11.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:14: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +9.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 11GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 1 at GAST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:13TROY 4th & 2 at GAST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:00TROY 4th & 6 at GAST 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 16 at GAST 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:38TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:28GAST 4th & 20 at GAST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:06TROY 4th & 4 at GAST 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:46GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:45GAST 4th & 9 at TROY 40, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%
    34% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00GAST 4th & 5 at TROY 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:27TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 44, down 1
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:56TROY 4th & 1 at GAST 9, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−4.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−17.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:02TROY 4th & 11 at GAST 11, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−14.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−3.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:24GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:12TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 24, up 10
    Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:33TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:43TROY 4th & 6 at GAST 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:36GAST 4th & 4 at TROY 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:36GAST 4th & 10 at TROY 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q3 11:27GAST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:03GAST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:08TROY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:24TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:14TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:33GAST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FG
24 plays · 53 yds · 9:1587% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
87.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
87.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 8 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
87.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
87.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 9 yds Jordan Chunn fumbled, forced by Chandon Sullivan, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
87.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
87.2%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
87.2%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete, broken up by Mackendy CheridorSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
87.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+7
87.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
87.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
87.2%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
87.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 5 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+3
87.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 3 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+7
85.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 7 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
85.8%
Silvers, Brandon middle pass complete to Johnson, John for 4 yards to the GSU5 (Payne, Trey), PENALTY TROY pass interference 15 yards to the GSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
0
85.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
-5
85.6%
Silvers, Brandon screen pass complete to Frye, Jabir for 5 yards to the GSU19 (McGee, Alonzo;Payne, Trey), PENALTY TROY holding 5 yards to the GSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 29
+7
85.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 7 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
0
85.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 0
OPP 22
+39
85.3%
Ryan Kay 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
85.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
85.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+13
85.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 13 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
85.0%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+16
85.1%
Kyler Neal run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
50
0
84.6%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Kamryn Melton return for no gain to the Troy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
84.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 16 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
84.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
84.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
84.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 10 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
85.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
85.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
84.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 23 yds, downed at the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 1:0716% → 16%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
83.8%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-5
83.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+12
83.9%
Kendrick Dorn run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
83.6%
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
83.4%
Kendrick Dorn run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+14
83.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 14 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
82.6%
Kendrick Dorn run for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
82.5%
Conner Manning pass incomplete, broken up by Seth CallowaySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-9
82.6%
Conner Manning sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 42
+14
83.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 43 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 14 yds to the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
82.8%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
83.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
82.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+5
82.3%
Kay, Ryan punt 41 yards to the GSU24, fair catch by Stone, Cedric, PENALTY GSU offside defense 5 yards to the TROY40, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
83.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
83.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
83.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
82.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cedric Stone at the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
82.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+7
82.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 7 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
82.2%
Darius Stubbs run for no gain to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+20
82.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 20 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
81.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
82.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
82.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 15
OWN 30
-5
82.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Conner ManningSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
82.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 7 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
82.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
83.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
82.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 4
OWN 0
0
81.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan Chunn GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
82.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 31 yds, downed at the GeoSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
80.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 2 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
80.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+8
81.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 8 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
80.6%
Darius Stubbs run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
80.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
80.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Ari WertsSimilar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
81.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
80.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
81.0%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Chandon Sullivan return for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · -21 yds · 2:0622% → 20%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
77.7%
Todd Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+5
78.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-2
77.9%
Conner Manning sacked by William Lloyd for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 9
OPP 40
-22
79.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 22 yards to the GeoSt 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Brandon WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:4081% → 86%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
81.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
82.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+4
80.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
81.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+13
81.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 13 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
81.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+27
85.5%
Ryan Kay 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:3319% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
81.4%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+31
81.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 16 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
79.1%
Tra Barnett run for 11 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
79.1%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
79.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+4
79.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+6
80.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 6 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
78.0%
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
64.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 25 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
69.0%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY GSU holding 10 yards to the TROY37, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
71.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
71.0%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+12
70.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 12 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
72.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
71.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5032% → 49%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
68.0%
Dorn, Kendrick rush left for loss of 1 yard to the GSU19 (Sanders, Trevon), PENALTY TROY face mask 15 yards to the GSU35, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
67.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+65
50.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 65 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15FG
21 plays · 31 yds · 7:0157% → 49%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
56.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
56.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+9
56.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
58.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+3
58.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
58.1%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
58.0%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+5
56.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+5
56.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+2
44.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
48.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
48.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, offside defense (2 Yards) to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
48.8%
Silvers, Brandon deep pass incomplete to Thompson, Emanuel, PENALTY GSU pass interference 1 yards to the GSU2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
48.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.8%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.9%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
39.9%
Chunn, Jordan rush left for 1 yard to the GSU0, clock 02:05, PENALTY TROY holding 10 yards to the GSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
49.0%
Ryan Kay 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:5455% → 79%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+34
55.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 34 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
54.9%
Chunn, Jordan rush up middle for 1 yard to the GSU0, clock 01:36, PENALTY TROY illegal formation 5 yards to the GSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
54.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
54.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds for a TD, (J. son Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0827% → 24%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.4%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
73.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Darius Stubbs for 2 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
74.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
75.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+7
75.7%
Brandon Wright punt for 33 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:2378% → 90%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+34
77.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 34 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.4%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
89.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 15 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+29
89.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 29 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.7%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
87.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jawan NoblesSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
88.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn Smith, broken up by Kris WeatherspoonSimilar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
89.7%
Brandon Wright punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
88.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-4
88.7%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 13Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+11
88.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 11 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
87.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
89.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+9
89.3%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Demetrius Cain return for 9 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
98.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:413% → 11%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
96.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 38 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
96.4%
Kendrick Dorn run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
95.8%
Manning, Conner deep pass incomplete to Smith, Glenn, PENALTY TROY pass interference 15 yards to the TROY18, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
95.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 4 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
95.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete GEORGIA ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
89.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 14 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
93.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
93.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+1
93.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
92.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, downed at the GeoSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:007% → 9%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
93.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete, broken up by Junior GnonkondeSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+15
93.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Devin Gentry for 15 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
92.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 9 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
91.6%
Conner Manning run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
91.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 14 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
91.0%
Conner Manning sacked by Junior Gnonkonde for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 49 Conner Manning fumbled, recovered by Troy Baron Poole , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5695% → 97%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
95.1%
Josh Anderson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
95.1%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
96.2%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-5
96.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
96.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27DOWNS
13 plays · 73 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
97.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 12 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
97.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 4 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+17
97.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 17 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
96.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 16 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Kendrick DornSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
96.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 7 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-5
96.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+4
96.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+18
96.6%
Conner Manning run for 18 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jawan Nobles, broken up by Jalen RountreeSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
96.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jawan NoblesSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
96.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Kendrick DornSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 10
OPP 23
0
96.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:08
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds for a TD, (J. son Run For Two-point Conversion)
+21.9
TD · Q3 9:03
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 65 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q3 11:27
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 25 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com