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USA

South Alabama 7 at Arkansas State 17

ARST
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLETDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:33 · Brandon McKee punt for 45 yds, downed at the ArkSt 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior+10.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 12:50: Cole Garvin pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 5 yds for a TD Kevin Kutchera fumbled, forced by Chris Humes, recovered by ArkSt Chris Humes , return for 60 yds, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +7.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:05: Johnston White run for 14 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +9.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:52: Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 8 — ARST win probability +6.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:28: J.D. Houston 25 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +7.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:16: Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +7.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:34ARST 4th & 1 at USA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56ARST 4th & 5 at USA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:33USA 4th & 13 at USA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42USA 4th & 16 at USA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:46ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:50USA 4th & 15 at USA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:17USA 4th & 9 at ARST 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:17ARST 4th & 6 at USA 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:28ARST 4th & 8 at USA 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:22USA 4th & 15 at USA 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:55USA 4th & 18 at USA 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:01ARST 4th & 13 at USA 41, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:42ARST 4th & 13 at USA 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:36USA 4th & 16 at USA 36, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:05ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 4:16USA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:0462% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.5%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
61.5%
Justice Hansen run for 13 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
61.5%
Johnston White run for 15 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
61.5%
Logan Moragne run for 5 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
61.5%
Logan Moragne run for 3 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
61.5%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
61.6%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
61.9%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
61.9%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
61.8%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
61.6%
J.D. Houston 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:2339% → 39%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
61.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+25
61.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Gerald Everett for 25 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
60.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
60.7%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-4
60.6%
Cole Garvin sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
61.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 45 yds, downed at the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT
11 plays · 62 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
61.0%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+10
61.1%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
61.1%
Johnston White run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
61.1%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY USA offside defense (Allen, Randy) 5 yards to the ASU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
61.1%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
60.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 15 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
61.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Neiko Robinson) to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
62.0%
Warren Wand run for 14 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
62.2%
Justice Hansen sacked by Bull Barge and Finess Middleton for a loss of 10 yards to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+9
61.6%
Justice Hansen run for 9 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+3
61.7%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Jeremy Reaves return for 3 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
60.7%
Cole Garvin sacked by Waylon Roberson for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 18Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 16
OWN 18
0
60.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Xavier Johnson, broken up by Chris OdomSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 16
OWN 18
0
61.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
61.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 16
OWN 18
+2
61.6%
Brandon McKee punt for 53 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
61.1%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-8
60.7%
Justice Hansen sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
60.0%
Damon Foncham punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2340% → 35%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
59.7%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+10
59.8%
Cole Garvin run for 10 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
58.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
58.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
58.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
58.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
58.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Gerald Everett, broken up by Cody BrownSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+60
65.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 5 yds for a TD Kevin Kutchera fumbled, forced by Chris Humes, recovered by ArkSt Chris Humes , return for 60 yds, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
66.6%
Cole Garvin sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
67.7%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-2
68.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 49 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:1167% → 79%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
67.4%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+10
67.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+1
68.0%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
68.2%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
68.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds Omar Bayless fumbled, forced by Nigel Lawrence, recovered by ArkSt Blake Mack for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
68.8%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+12
68.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 12 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
69.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 9 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
69.0%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
69.0%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
78.0%
Johnston White run for 14 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
78.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9INT
12 plays · 56 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
77.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for 5 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-2
76.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+7
77.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Dami Ayoola for 7 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
76.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 22 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
75.7%
Deonta Moore run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
75.5%
Dallas Davis run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
75.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
74.7%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh Magee, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
75.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 10 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
74.2%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
74.7%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted Cody Brown return for no gain to the ArkSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
80.9%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+3
80.9%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:4320% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
80.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (De'Arius Young) to the SAlab 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+1
81.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 1 yd to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
81.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+22
81.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 22 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
79.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
79.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+8
77.9%
Dallas Davis run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
77.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
78.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Maaseiah Francis for 6 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-5
78.8%
Davis, Dallas pass complete to Thomas, Tyreis for 4 yards to the ASU15 (Woodson-Luster), PENALTY USA illegal formation 5 yards to the ASU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
79.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
82.6%
Gavin Patterson 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:4985% → 92%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
84.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
84.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+14
84.0%
Justice Hansen run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
85.3%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+10
85.2%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
85.2%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
85.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 2 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
84.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+24
83.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 24 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
85.3%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
85.3%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
92.0%
J.D. Houston 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
91.7%
Dallas Davis sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 16Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
91.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+4
92.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+1
92.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 56 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4993% → 94%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
92.8%
Cameron Echols-Luper run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+10
93.0%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
93.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 14
OWN 30
-4
92.8%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+7
92.5%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
93.4%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-6
93.7%
Dallas Davis sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 29 Dallas Davis fumbled, recovered by SAlab Dallas Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-5
94.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, delay of game (Dallas Davis) to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+4
94.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 4 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
94.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:4096% → 97%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
95.6%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+8
95.7%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
95.8%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+15
95.8%
Johnston White run for no gain to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.9%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-3
95.9%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-5
95.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+7
95.5%
Justice Hansen run for 7 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 8
OPP 36
-5
96.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 13
OPP 41
+33
96.5%
Damon Foncham punt for 25 yds, downed at the SAlab 16 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Cole Garvin) to the SAlab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 3:284% → 12%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
96.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Quinton Lane) to the SAlab 4Similar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+3
96.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+2
96.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+76
96.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 76 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
94.9%
Dami Ayoola run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+5
94.9%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
94.9%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 8 yds · 2:3493% → 97%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.1%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
93.7%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+8
94.5%
Chad Voytik run for 8 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.8%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
94.7%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
96.0%
Johnston White run for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
96.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:593% → 3%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Quinton LaneSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+22
97.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Maaseiah Francis for 22 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
96.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-6
96.7%
Cole Garvin sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
97.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
98.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 5
OPP 31
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:05
Johnston White run for 14 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
+9
FG · Q3 4:28
J.D. Houston 25 yd FG GOOD
+7.2
TD · Q4 4:16
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com