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TXST

Texas State 21 at Georgia State 41

GAST
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:00 · Brandon Wright punt for 53 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 5 yds to the TexSt 42 TEXAS STATE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 192Home team on offense+30.5Pregame prior+2.8Score differential+23.7Garbage-time factor+13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:08: Glenn Smith run for 32 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +7.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:45: Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 55 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +10.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:44: Rogier Ten Lohuis 35 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +7.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:35: Tyler Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +11.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:46: Kyler Neal run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +8.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:25GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:41TXST 4th & 1 at GAST 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:12GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06TXST 4th & 3 at GAST 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:41TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:01TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:08TXST 4th & 9 at GAST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:55GAST 4th & 4 at TXST 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:45TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:44GAST 4th & 7 at TXST 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:57TXST 4th & 8 at GAST 40, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:46TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:02TXST 4th & 15 at GAST 18, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 10 at GAST 27, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:12GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 35, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:00GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 37, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:45TXST 4th & 20 at TXST 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:25TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:12TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:41GAST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:08GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:08GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:45GAST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:35TXST Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:46GAST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:3529% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
71.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
71.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Eric Luna for 4 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 11 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
71.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
71.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 6 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
71.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 44 Stedman Mayberry fumbled, recovered by TexSt Stedman MayberrySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
71.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+13
71.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
71.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 19 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
71.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Eric Luna for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+7
71.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
69.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Eric Luna for 19 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
69.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kyler Neal for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
69.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 57 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 3:2932% → 38%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
68.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
68.4%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+4
68.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 4 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
68.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 23 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
68.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 8 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
68.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
68.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
68.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 20 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
68.0%
Tyler Tutt run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
68.0%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+7
68.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 7 yds to the GeoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.5%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
63.8%
Kyler Neal run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
63.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+10
63.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 10 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
64.2%
Darius Stubbs run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
64.2%
Darius Stubbs run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
64.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 41 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for no gain to the TexSt 36 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:3940% → 42%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
60.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 7 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+12
60.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 12 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
60.2%
Thurman Morbley run for 12 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
59.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
60.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+8
60.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 8 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
58.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Glenn Smith at the GeoSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:1758% → 64%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
58.1%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+18
58.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 18 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.6%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
58.5%
Tra Barnett run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
59.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 8 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
59.5%
Conner Manning run for 2 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
57.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 26 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
58.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 15 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
58.1%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.7%
Conner Manning run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
61.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 11 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
60.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
59.9%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
59.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+4
60.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.5%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Jerome Smith return for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:3462% → 69%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
62.1%
Tra Barnett run for 13 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
62.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
62.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Jordan MittieSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+22
61.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 22 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
62.8%
Darius Stubbs run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
62.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
69.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 8 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
65.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
66.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 6 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-4
65.7%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+58
67.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GEORGIAST 18 GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:0867% → 76%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
67.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 16 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
67.3%
Darius Stubbs run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
68.1%
Darius Stubbs run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+9
67.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 9 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
68.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 21 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
76.4%
Glenn Smith run for 32 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.7%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+27
73.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Eric Luna for 12 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
71.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
71.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
72.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Stedman MayberrySimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
73.6%
Lumi Kaba punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:4475% → 79%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.5%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
74.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 9 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+32
74.2%
Kyler Neal run for 32 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
76.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Javante O'RoySimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
76.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+8
76.0%
Conner Manning run for 8 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
76.6%
Darius Stubbs run for 3 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+3
76.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
78.9%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
78.9%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
87.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 55 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.8%
Tyler Tutt run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
86.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Tutt for 4 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Shawanye LawrenceSimilar
Q3 14:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 31 yds, downed at the GeoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:0288% → 94%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+41
87.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 41 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
87.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-10
87.7%
Conner Manning run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Michael Ivory) to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+2
87.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 2 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 18
OPP 29
+11
87.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 11 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
94.4%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 3:096% → 19%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
93.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
93.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
93.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
93.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 26 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
93.2%
Tyler Tutt run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
93.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
93.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 8
OPP 0
0
93.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+11
93.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 11 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
92.7%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+19
92.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 19 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
81.4%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:4986% → 96%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
86.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 1 yd to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
86.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+15
86.1%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Smith, Glenn, PENALTY TXST pass interference (O'Roy, Javante) 15 yards to the GSU47, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
87.5%
Kyler Neal run for 27 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
87.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+15
87.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, roughing passer (9 Yards) to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
87.6%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
87.6%
Manning, Conner pass complete to Rucker, Keith for 6 yards to the TXST0, fumble by Rucker, Keith recovered by TXST 42 at TXST0, touchback, PENALTY TXST offside defense 3 yards to the TXST3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.4%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.0%
Tyler Tutt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Glenn Smith at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
96.2%
Darius Stubbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
96.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Kendrick DornSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-9
96.1%
Conner Manning sacked by Hal Vinson for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 13 Conner Manning fumbled, recovered by TexSt Gabe Loyd , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21MISSED FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:484% → 3%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-14
95.8%
Jones, Tyler rush for 3 yards to the GSU10 (Williams, Bryan), PENALTY TXST holding (Romero, Felix) 14 yards to the GSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 24
OPP 27
+9
96.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 9 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
96.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 15
OPP 18
0
96.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+35
97.0%
James Sherman 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
96.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 5 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
96.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Michael Ivory) to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 15
OWN 27
0
96.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+13
96.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 13 yds Robert Davis fumbled, forced by Javante O'Roy, recovered by TexSt Stephan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:393% → 2%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
97.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 13 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
97.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
97.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Stedman MayberrySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 27
0
97.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric Luna, broken up by Tevin JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
98.0%
Kyler Neal run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-2
98.0%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 31 Kyler Neal fumbled, forced by Teron Fitzgerald, recovered by TexSt Gabe LoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
97.9%
Tyler Tutt run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-4
97.8%
Tyler Jones sacked by Marterious Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 11
OPP 32
-5
98.1%
Tyler Jones sacked by Mackendy Cheridor for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 28 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Tevin Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
98.5%
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Kendrick Dorn run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+5
98.4%
Conner Manning run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+7
98.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 46 yds , Andrew Aneke returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27INT
11 plays · 71 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
98.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 15 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
98.5%
Tyler Jones sacked by Mackendy Cheridor for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+13
98.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 13 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
98.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+15
98.4%
Jones, Tyler pass incomplete to King, Elijah, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Smith, Jerome) 15 yards to the GSU26, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
98.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 11 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
98.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 9 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+1
98.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
98.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 3
OPP 0
0
98.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for no gain to the GeoSt 3 GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.3%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted, touchback. Chandon Sullivan return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.8%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
98.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
98.8%
Kendrick Dorn run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 2
OWN 42
-5
98.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Chandon Sullivan) to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+5
98.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 53 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 5 yds to the TexSt 42 TEXAS STATE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
99.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 14 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-10
99.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by Mackendy Cheridor and James Traylor for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 20
OWN 19
0
99.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jerome Smith at the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.4%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
99.4%
Kendrick Dorn run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+9
99.4%
Kendrick Dorn run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
50
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:35
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q3 14:45
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 55 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q3 4:46
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com