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GASO

Georgia Southern 26 at Arkansas State 27

ARST
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2016 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:46 · Matt Flynn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior−22.1Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:29: Justin McInnis 6 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston Kick) — ARST win probability +11.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:26: Myles Campbell 63 Yd pass from Kevin Ellison (Younghoe Koo Kick) — GASO win probability +14.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:46: Warren Wand 55 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick) — ARST win probability +16.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FG · Q4 6:32: J.D. Houston 35 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +11.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:09: Omar Bayless 8 Yd pass from Justice Hansen , (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +72.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:46GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43GASO 4th & 3 at ARST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:37ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:08GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:26ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:58GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:56ARST 4th & 3 at GASO 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:35GASO 4th & 2 at ARST 15, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:24GASO 4th & 15 at ARST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:56GASO 4th & 7 at ARST 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−11.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:38ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−2.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:49GASO 4th & 13 at GASO 5, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−5.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:53GASO 4th & 2 at ARST 3, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%−2.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−13.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:41GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 38, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−3.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:32ARST 4th & 3 at GASO 18, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−8.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:06ARST 4th & 6 at GASO 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−3.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−7.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:41GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:53ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:17GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:29ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:26GASO Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:46ARST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:09ARST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−15.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:0427% → 28%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
27.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 28 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
27.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 13 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
27.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+11
27.7%
Warren Wand run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 19 Warren Wand fumbled, forced by Chris DeLaRosa, recovered by GeoSo Logan HuntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5272% → 71%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
27.6%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+4
27.8%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+6
28.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
28.6%
Matt Flynn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
28.7%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 29 Justice Hansen fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Chris DeLaRosaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5172% → 71%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
28.1%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
28.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+2
28.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+2
29.2%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5330% → 30%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
29.6%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
29.9%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
29.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-8
29.9%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 22 Warren Wand fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Warren WandSimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 18
OWN 22
0
29.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for no gain to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
29.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2370% → 69%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
30.0%
Ellison, Kevin rush for 1 yard to the GASOUTHERN39, PENALTY GASOUTHERN holding 10 yards to the GASOUTHERN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+7
30.4%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+4
30.7%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
30.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Malik HenrySimilar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
31.3%
Matt Flynn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3431% → 31%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
31.1%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
31.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendall SandersSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
31.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
30.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 36 yds, downed at the GeoSo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
27.6%
L.A. Ramsby 61 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9INT
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:4029% → 30%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
28.5%
Warren Wand run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
50
+13
29.4%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
29.6%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+15
30.0%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Paschal, Dijon, PENALTY GASOUTHERN pass interference (Freeman, Sean) 15 yards to the GASOUTHERN20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
30.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
30.3%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Joshua Moon return for no gain to the GeoSo 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1771% → 71%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
28.6%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+2
28.6%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
28.9%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 4
OWN 12
-5
29.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 9
OWN 7
0
29.2%
Matt Flynn punt for 42 yds, downed at the GeoSo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5630% → 32%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
29.7%
Johnston White run for 18 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
30.4%
Johnston White run for 23 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
30.5%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
30.6%
Johnston White run for no gain to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
30.1%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 3Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+19
32.3%
J.D. Houston 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:1068% → 71%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
32.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
31.8%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+13
31.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 13 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
31.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 15 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
30.9%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+10
31.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 10 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
31.1%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
31.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-1
31.7%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
28.8%
Younghoe Koo 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
17 plays · 97 yds · 5:5830% → 43%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
29.6%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+19
29.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 19 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
29.8%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+8
28.1%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
28.2%
Justice Hansen run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
29.4%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-1
30.3%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+5
30.1%
Voytik, Chad rush for 3 yards to the GASOUTHERN44, PENALTY GASOUTHERN offside 5 yards to the GASOUTHERN42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
30.4%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+11
31.4%
Justice Hansen run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
31.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
31.6%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
31.7%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
31.8%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
43.1%
Justin McInnis 6 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:0163% → 66%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
36.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
50
+3
34.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+17
34.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 17 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
33.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Max Magana) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
34.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
34.6%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 15
OPP 35
0
35.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+53
33.9%
Younghoe Koo 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1034% → 33%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
34.1%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
32.8%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16FG
20 plays · 73 yds · 8:5266% → 72%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
34.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
34.6%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
35.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 7 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
34.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 5 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
33.5%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
33.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 3 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
33.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
33.1%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
33.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
33.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 12 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
31.1%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
31.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+4
32.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
31.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 11 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
31.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for no gain to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
31.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
33.4%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q3 5:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
28.1%
Younghoe Koo 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1433% → 31%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
32.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
35.2%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+2
32.0%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+5
30.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
31.2%
Damon Foncham punt for 44 yds, downed at the GeoSo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:4971% → 87%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
29.0%
Matt Breida run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
27.2%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+63
13.1%
Myles Campbell 63 Yd pass from Kevin Ellison (Younghoe Koo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3217% → 34%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
17.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 20 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
18.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+55
34.2%
Warren Wand 55 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4572% → 69%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
28.5%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+2
28.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-5
28.6%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 13
OWN 5
-9
30.7%
Matt Flynn punt for 60 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 26 Cameron Echols-Luper fumbled, recovered by GeoSoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:3977% → 79%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
23.3%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+17
23.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 17 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
22.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 2
0
22.6%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-1
22.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+21
21.5%
Younghoe Koo 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
22.0%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Christian Matthew return for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0380% → 79%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
19.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Mike Jackson) to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+1
21.6%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 14
OWN 38
0
19.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Myles CampbellSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
19.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
21.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:5818% → 31%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+22
17.5%
Warren Wand run for 22 yds to the ArkSt 33 Warren Wand fumbled, forced by Ironhead Gallon, recovered by ArkStSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
17.8%
Johnston White run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
21.2%
Johnston White run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
23.3%
Johnston White run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 25 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
21.8%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
22.2%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
22.2%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-10
21.3%
White, Johnston rush for 6 yards to the GASOUTHERN13, PENALTY ARKST holding 10 yards to the GASOUTHERN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+10
19.1%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+1
19.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
30.5%
J.D. Houston 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1681% → 80%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
18.8%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-2
18.7%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
19.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:3826% → 27%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
26.2%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+23
28.6%
Justice Hansen run for 23 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
29.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+7
29.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-2
31.9%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+4
27.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:2287% → 87%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
13.2%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+2
13.2%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-2
12.8%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
13.3%
Matt Flynn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 2:2721% → 91%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
21.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-6
20.2%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 16
OWN 24
0
17.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+18
13.4%
Justice Hansen run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
16.1%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-2
15.3%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+9
12.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 9 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
12.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 10 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
13.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+29
13.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 29 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
18.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.9%
Omar Bayless 8 Yd pass from Justice Hansen , (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
77.7%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Darrius Rosser for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:09
Omar Bayless 8 Yd pass from Justice Hansen , (J.D. Houston KICK)
+72.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+22.3
TD · Q3 1:46
Warren Wand 55 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)
+16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com