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CARK

Central Arkansas 28 at Arkansas State 23

ARST
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-7.3ARST 65.7%Matt Cummins 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 16 - HOME 16 · Q3 6:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:06 · Matt Cummins 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+14.1Home team on offense−3.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score differential−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:44: Matt Cummins 29 yd FG GOOD — CARK win probability +3.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:06: Matt Cummins 25 yd FG GOOD — CARK win probability +7.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:16: Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 58 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +13.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:12: Antwon Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Cummins PAT MISSED) — CARK win probability +14.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 6:26: Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Cox for 18 yds for a TD, (Hayden Hildebrand intercepted ) — CARK win probability +38.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 14:56CARK 4th & 6 at CARK 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15ARST 4th & 6 at CARK 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:09CARK 4th & 4 at CARK 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:42ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:56CARK 4th & 8 at CARK 20, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:11ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 6:14CARK 4th & 4 at CARK 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  8. Q1 3:14CARK 4th & 6 at ARST 44, down 9
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:19CARK 4th & 6 at ARST 35, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:19ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 37, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:13CARK 4th & 11 at ARST 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:03ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 1, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:44CARK 4th & 4 at ARST 12, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−5.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 14:55ARST 4th & 7 at CARK 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:06CARK 4th & 8 at ARST 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−8.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:09CARK 4th & 13 at CARK 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−2.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:12CARK 4th & 3 at ARST 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−13.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:18ARST 4th & 12 at CARK 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%−0.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−2.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:48CARK 4th & 2 at CARK 17, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:42CARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:02ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:21ARST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:16ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:12CARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CARKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
85.5%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Roman Gordon for 3 yds to the CArk 19Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
85.5%
Antwon Wells run for 1 yd to the CArk 20Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
85.5%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Roman GordonSimilar
Q1 14:56
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
85.5%
Patrick Ponder punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:1785% → 85%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
85.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 36 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
85.2%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 22Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
85.2%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the CArk 22Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+6
85.2%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, offside defense (6 Yards) to the CArk 16Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
85.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
85.0%
J.D. Houston 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
84.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 20 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
84.8%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CArk 34Similar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+8
84.9%
Antwon Wells run for 8 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
84.8%
Antwon Wells run for 1 yd to the CArk 43Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+2
84.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jacquez McMillian for 2 yds to the CArk 45Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
84.9%
Hayden Hildebrand punt for 52 yds, downed at the ArkSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2384% → 83%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
84.4%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+2
84.4%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
84.3%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+47
82.8%
Tremon Smith 47 Yd Punt Return (Matt Cummins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:3984% → 85%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+40
83.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 40 yds to the CArk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
83.7%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the CArk 5Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.5%
Kendall Sanders 5 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
83.9%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the CArk 20Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
83.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
84.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+6
84.2%
Patrick Ponder punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 45 , Blaise Taylor returns for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
83.9%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
83.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
83.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tremon Smith at the CArk 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
83.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the CArk 22Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
83.4%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Jatavious Wilson, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+3
83.6%
Hayden Hildebrand run for 3 yds to the CArk 25Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+41
83.7%
Patrick Ponder punt for 41 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:2683% → 85%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
83.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+17
83.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 17 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
83.7%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the CArk 48Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+48
85.1%
Warren Wand 48 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
84.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the CArk 20Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
84.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Jarvis CooperSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+32
84.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 32 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
84.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
84.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-4
84.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+8
84.7%
Hayden Hildebrand punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 10 , Blaise Taylor returns for 8 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:0284% → 84%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
84.3%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
84.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 5 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+11
83.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 11 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
84.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
84.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+5
84.1%
Hansen, Justice pass intercepted by Porter, Brandon at the UCA34, Porter, Brandon return to the UCA34, PENALTY UCA offside defense (Pope, James) 5 yards to the ASU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
84.3%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
84.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
83.7%
Cameron Echols-Luper punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:2215% → 15%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
84.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 8 yds to the CArk 24Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+1
84.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the CArk 25Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
84.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the CArk 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
84.7%
Antwon Wells run for 3 yds to the CArk 29Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
84.5%
Antwon Wells run for 3 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+14
84.6%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Cody Dauksch for 14 yds to the CArk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
84.1%
Hildebrand, Hay pass incomplete to Smith, Desmond, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Wagner, Nehemia) 15 yards to the ASU39, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
83.8%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
83.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+2
84.7%
Kelton Warren run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+22
85.0%
Matt Cummins 52 yd FG MISSED , Blaise Taylor return for 22 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
84.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
85.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
84.8%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
84.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 12 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
85.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-8
85.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by George Odum for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 37 Justice Hansen fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 18
OWN 37
0
84.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
84.1%
Cameron Echols-Luper punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
84.3%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Kelton WarrenSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
84.6%
Kelton Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
85.2%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
85.9%
Patrick Ponder punt for 40 yds, downed at the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
84.8%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 2 Justice Hansen fumbled, forced by James Pope,Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 15
OWN 2
-1
84.7%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 16
OWN 1
0
84.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-Luper, broken up by Jaylon LoftonSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 16
OWN 1
+30
84.0%
Damon Foncham punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 18 , Tremon Smith returns for 30 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 16FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3816% → 19%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
83.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
83.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-3
84.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
80.6%
Matt Cummins 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:5683% → 83%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.1%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
83.8%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
83.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 31 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
85.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Dalvin Simmons for a loss of 10 yards to the CArk 44Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+32
82.8%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Tremon Smith return for 32 yds to the CArk 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 18FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:3219% → 24%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
81.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Desmond Smith for 21 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
79.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
79.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Desmond Smith, broken up by Money HunterSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+10
80.1%
Hildebrand, Hay pass incomplete to Smith, Desmond, PENALTY ASU HL (Wagner, Nehemia) 10 yards to the ASU26, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
77.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Jatavious WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
78.2%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Jatavious WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+43
75.6%
Matt Cummins 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
76.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
76.6%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+12
75.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 12 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
77.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+28
76.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 28 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
78.9%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
79.2%
Johnston White run for no gain to the CArk 48Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
78.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
76.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 42 yds, downed at the CArk 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 20FG
16 plays · 86 yds · 5:5624% → 34%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
76.2%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 10 yds to the CArk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
75.8%
Cox, Brandon rush for loss of 3 yards to the UCA13 (Sentimore, Bo;Heath, Q.), PENALTY ASU offside defense (Woodson-Luster) 5 yards to the UCA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 5
OWN 21
+9
75.3%
Carlos Blackman run for 9 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
75.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
75.2%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Desmond Smith for 1 yd to the CArk 33Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+35
76.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Roman Gordon for 35 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
72.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Cody DaukschSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
72.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+12
73.3%
Carlos Blackman run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
71.8%
Carlos Blackman run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 10
0
71.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Desmond SmithSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
72.9%
Antwon Wells run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
71.8%
Antwon Wells run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
71.8%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 8 Carlos Blackman fumbled, recovered by CArk Carlos BlackmanSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
72.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Jacquez McMillian, broken up by Chris HumesSimilar
Q3 6:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
65.7%
Matt Cummins 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:4470% → 86%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
70.1%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
72.5%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
85.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 58 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
81.1%
Antwon Wells run for 1 yd to the CArk 15Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+11
81.3%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 11 yds to the CArk 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
80.8%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (David Tachie) to the CArk 21Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+2
81.1%
Antwon Wells run for 2 yds to the CArk 23Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
81.3%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Jacquez McMillianSimilar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
82.2%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Desmond Smith, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 13
OWN 23
+6
82.7%
Patrick Ponder punt for 37 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
85.6%
Warren Wand run for 24 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
86.1%
Sterling Stowers run for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line Sterling Stowers fumbled, forced by Chris Terrell, recovered by CArk Chris Terrell , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 24TD
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:2322% → 35%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
50
0
78.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Cody DaukschSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
50
+1
79.0%
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+13
79.5%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Desmond Smith for 13 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
78.1%
Jatavious Wilson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
76.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+5
77.8%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Cox for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
76.9%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 12 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
76.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Justin Clifton) to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
76.9%
Hildebrand, Hay pass incomplete to Smith, Desmond, PENALTY ASU HL (Humes, Chris) 3 yards to the ASU3, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
76.9%
Hayden Hildebrand sacked by Trent Ellis for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
77.4%
Hayden Hildebrand pass incomplete to Cody Dauksch, broken up by Trent EllisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+10
80.3%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 10 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 13:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.2%
Antwon Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Cummins PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 50 yds · 0:0071% → 75%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
70.7%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+44
72.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 44 yds to the CArk 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
74.8%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the CArk 12Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-1
74.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 14 Johnston White fumbled, forced by Jordan Toliver, recovered by CArk Jaylon LoftonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 26TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:1333% → 79%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
67.5%
Antwon Wells run for 1 yd to the CArk 15Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+15
68.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Desmond Smith for 15 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
66.2%
Hayden Hildebrand run for a loss of 5 yards to the CArk 25Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+35
68.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 35 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
61.9%
Hayden Hildebrand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
59.5%
Hayden Hildebrand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
61.4%
Antwon Wells run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
59.5%
Antwon Wells run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+13
60.1%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Desmond Smith for 13 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
59.5%
Antwon Wells run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-10
59.5%
Wells, Antwon rush for loss of 1 yard to the ASU9 (Mondie, Robert), PENALTY UCA HL (Matiaha, Scott) 10 yards to the ASU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 16
OPP 18
+18
21.0%
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Cox for 18 yds for a TD, (Hayden Hildebrand intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27INT
15 plays · 38 yds · 3:0832% → 27%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
31.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
30.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+13
28.7%
Justice Hansen run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
35.1%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
35.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 15 yds to the CArk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
37.9%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to Mack, Blake for 15 yards to the UCA25, PENALTY ASU HL 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 20
50
0
34.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 20
50
+8
32.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
33.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 12
OPP 42
+13
23.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 13 yds to the CArk 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
34.5%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 31Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-6
32.0%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 6 yards to the CArk 32 Justice Hansen fumbled, forced by George Odum, recovered by ArkSt Colton JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 13
OPP 32
0
27.4%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Tyler Williams return for no gain to the CArk 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5889% → 93%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
11.1%
Antwon Wells run for 3 yds to the CArk 12Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
10.2%
Antwon Wells run for 3 yds to the CArk 15Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+2
10.6%
Antwon Wells run for 2 yds to the CArk 17Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 2
OWN 17
-4
6.7%
Patrick Ponder punt for 53 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29Uncategorized
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:0011% → 18%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
11.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 8 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
12.3%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
12.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 27 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
18.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
18.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete, broken up by Tremon SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:26
Hayden Hildebrand pass complete to Brandon Cox for 18 yds for a TD, (Hayden Hildebrand intercepted )
-38.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.2
TD · Q4 13:12
Antwon Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Cummins PAT MISSED)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com