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GAST

Georgia State 17 at Wisconsin 23

WIS
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:10 · Anthony Lotti punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Glenn Smith at the GeoSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+34.5Home team on offense+6.2Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score differential+1.0Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:58: Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +6.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:19: Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 13 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +13.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 11:36: Kyler Neal run for 9 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +34.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:25: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +24.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:36: Rafael Gaglianone 41 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +5.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:20WIS 4th & 1 at GAST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:20WIS 4th & 4 at GAST 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:00GAST 4th & 22 at GAST 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:51WIS 4th & 1 at GAST 10, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:21GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:36GAST 4th & 7 at WIS 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:10WIS 4th & 10 at GAST 38, up 6
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:40GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:46GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:25WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56GAST 4th & 1 at WIS 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−1.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:00GAST 4th & 15 at WIS 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:53GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 18, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:36WIS 4th & 8 at GAST 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−15.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:12GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 25, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 2:58WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:19GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:36GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:25WIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1FG
16 plays · 52 yds · 7:2597% → 96%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
97.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 6 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+10
97.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 10 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.9%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
96.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+11
96.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 11 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
96.7%
Taiwan Deal run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
96.7%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
96.6%
Austin Ramesh run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
96.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
96.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
96.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
96.0%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Kyle PennistonSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
96.1%
Rafael Gaglianone 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:094% → 4%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.0%
Kyler Neal run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
96.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
95.9%
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-15
95.9%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete, PENALTY GEORGIAST intentional grounding 15 yards to the GEORGIAST13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
95.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 55 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for no gain to the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:5896% → 95%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
95.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 24 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
95.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
95.7%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
95.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to George Rushing for 7 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
95.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+7
95.5%
Bradrick Shaw run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
95.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+2
95.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
94.9%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alec Ingold for 1 yd to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+28
95.2%
Rafael Gaglianone 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:215% → 5%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.0%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
94.8%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
94.7%
Emiere Scaife run for no gain to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-11
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the GeoSt 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WiscSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:4595% → 95%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
95.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
95.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
95.0%
Bradrick Shaw run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
94.8%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 6 Bradrick Shaw fumbled, recovered by GeoStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:276% → 7%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
94.2%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+6
94.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 6 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+4
94.2%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
93.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 20 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.5%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
93.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 7 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
93.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.4%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
93.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 15 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
93.0%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-3
93.0%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+4
93.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 4 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
93.3%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Conor SheehySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1594% → 93%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
93.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
94.0%
Bart Houston pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 5 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
93.9%
Jazz Peavy run for 8 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
93.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
50
+12
93.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alec Ingold for 12 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.7%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Kyle PennistonSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
93.6%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Kyle PennistonSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
93.4%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
92.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Glenn Smith at the GeoSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:237% → 8%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
93.0%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+11
92.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 11 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.5%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.5%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+8
92.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
92.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 3 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
91.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
92.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:4092% → 93%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
92.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 7 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.0%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
93.0%
Bart Houston pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 14 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
92.8%
Bart Houston run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+13
92.6%
Bart Houston run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+30
92.6%
Rafael Gaglianone 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:099% → 9%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.8%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
90.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for no gain to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
90.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:0691% → 89%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
91.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
91.1%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 5 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+5
90.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 5 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
91.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-5
90.9%
Bart Houston sacked by Jameel Spencer for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
89.6%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
89.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Glenn Smith at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:1511% → 15%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
89.0%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+38
88.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 38 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
86.2%
Todd Boyd run for 9 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
85.6%
Glenn Smith pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
86.4%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
88.7%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
86.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 3 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-10
86.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+2
87.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 2 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 15
OPP 28
0
88.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+45
85.3%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:4586% → 94%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
85.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-4
86.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+29
83.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 29 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
86.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to George Rushing for 19 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
87.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:317% → 23%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.6%
Kendrick Dorn run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
92.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+40
92.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 40 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
90.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+20
90.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 20 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
77.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 13 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15INT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3182% → 85%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
82.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
84.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 6 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
84.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+14
84.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 14 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
85.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Chandon Sullivan return for no gain to the GeoSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:4920% → 54%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
80.0%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+60
80.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 60 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
45.9%
Kyler Neal run for 9 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:5561% → 82%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
60.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+11
59.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 11 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
61.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 29 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
62.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
59.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
58.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.4%
Bradrick Shaw run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2325% → 22%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
74.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
75.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+8
77.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 8 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+15
77.7%
Brandon Wright punt for 39 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 15 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0582% → 93%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
82.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
81.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+14
80.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 14 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
85.1%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
86.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
86.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to A.J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
92.6%
Rafael Gaglianone 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1911% → 10%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 40 yds, downed at the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0194% → 97%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
94.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
95.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
95.2%
Alec Ingold run for 4 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
96.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 8
50
+1
96.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:36
Kyler Neal run for 9 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
-34.7
TD · Q4 7:25
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+24.4
TD · Q3 0:19
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 13 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com