Try the model
NCSU

NC State 28 at North Carolina 21

UNC
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-14.6UNC 42.3%Matthew Dayes run for 18 yds for a TD,(Connor Haskins KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 0 · Q2 10:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:33 · Matthew Dayes run for 18 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense−17.8Pregame prior+17.5Score differential−7.2Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:33: Matthew Dayes run for 18 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK) — NCSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:22: Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK) — NCSU win probability +24.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:49: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — UNC win probability +14.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:52: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +19.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:10: Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48 — NCSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 12 at NCSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19UNC 4th & 5 at NCSU 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:31NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 8 at NCSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:33NCSU 4th & 1 at UNC 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−2.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−9.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:27UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 35, down 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:53UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00NCSU 4th & 1 at UNC 9, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%−3.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−12.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:07UNC 4th & 2 at NCSU 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−1.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−11.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:26NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:49NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−4.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:25UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:52NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:53UNC 4th & 20 at UNC 49, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 3.5 ptsWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%−3.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:57NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:19NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:33NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:16UNC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:22NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:49UNC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:52UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
75.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 7 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+5
75.5%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
75.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+34
75.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 34 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
75.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
75.5%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-8
75.5%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by B.J. Hill for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
75.5%
Tom Sheldon punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 89 yds · 1:3725% → 28%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
74.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+18
74.7%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 18 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
74.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
74.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 7 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
72.5%
Jaylen Samuels pass complete to Stephen Louis for 59 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
72.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 29 Mitch Trubisky fumbled, recovered by NCSt Bradley ChubbSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:2728% → 31%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
72.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 9 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+7
72.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 7 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
72.3%
Jalan McClendon run for 12 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.8%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
69.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (R.J. Prince) to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+13
69.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 13 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
70.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
70.0%
Trubisky, M deep pass incomplete to Proehl, A, PENALTY ST pass interference (Stevens, Mi.) 15 yards to the ST48, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
70.3%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
70.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 5 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
70.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Carl Tucker, broken up by Airius MooreSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
70.2%
Tom Sheldon punt for 37 yds, downed at the NCSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
66.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+8
66.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
66.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+8
66.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
66.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-10
66.2%
Finley, R. deep pass complete to Cook, C. for 56 yards to the NC7 (Lawrence, D), PENALTY ST holding (Moss, T.) 10 yards to the ST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+11
66.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 11 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
66.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
66.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+1
66.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
66.1%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
66.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Jack TochoSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.1%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+28
60.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 28 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
62.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
62.5%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
62.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
62.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
61.9%
Tom Sheldon punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:2243% → 58%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+53
57.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 53 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
56.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+5
56.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
56.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+18
42.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 18 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
44.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
44.3%
Mitch Trubisky run for 4 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
44.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+3
45.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 48 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 3 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
38.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 10 yds to the NCSt 33 Nyheim Hines fumbled, forced by Andre Smith, recovered by NCaro M.J. StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:4745% → 55%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
44.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Elijah HoodSimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
44.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Elijah HoodSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+20
43.9%
Elijah Hood run for 20 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
44.9%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
54.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.8%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
50.7%
Jalan McClendon run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
51.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Matthew Dayes, broken up by Jeremiah ClarkeSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
52.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
50.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Dravious WrightSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
50.0%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-10
49.6%
Trubisky, M sideline pass complete to Howard, B for 16 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (Jones, Jo.), PENALTY NC holding (Hatton, T) 10 yards to the NC24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+12
49.2%
Elijah Hood run for 12 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
49.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14MISSED FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 5:1053% → 64%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
47.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 9 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
46.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
47.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
46.9%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
46.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 4 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
45.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
46.0%
Jalan McClendon run for 10 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
42.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
42.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
41.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Stephen Louis for 5 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+8
42.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
41.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
41.9%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Matthew Dayes, broken up by Jeremiah ClarkeSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+4
36.7%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+26
36.0%
Connor Haskins 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
40.9%
Weiler, N kickoff 10 yards to the NC45, on-side kick, recovered by NC Ratliff, A on NC45, PENALTY NC illegal block (Bonilla, A) 5 yards to the NC30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:3061% → 88%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
39.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for no gain to the NCSt 15Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
39.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+11
40.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 11 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
39.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+4
37.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
37.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+7
37.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 2
50
+4
37.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
37.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
37.3%
Jalan McClendon run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+21
37.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 21 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
36.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 14 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
36.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:0917% → 12%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
17.0%
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
18.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
18.4%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+22
18.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 22 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
20.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
19.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 12 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
20.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 4 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
20.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 5 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-1
11.6%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 2
OPP 9
0
11.5%
Ryan Switzer pass incomplete to Mitch TrubiskySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
6.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+5
6.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
6.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 16 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
6.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
6.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
6.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
6.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 2:246% → 21%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
6.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
6.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 12 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
6.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
6.4%
T.J. Logan run for 16 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
6.8%
Trubisky, M sideline pass incomplete to Jackson, T, PENALTY NC holding (Hatton, T) 10 yards to the NC36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
6.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 20
OWN 36
-6
6.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 30
+45
5.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 45 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
6.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 18 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
6.6%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the NCSt 7Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
20.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.2%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
13.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 14 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
12.2%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
12.6%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-6
12.7%
Ryan Finley sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 16
OWN 36
+13
13.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 13 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:3313% → 33%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
12.6%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+6
11.4%
Mitch Trubisky run for 6 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+8
11.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+6
12.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
32.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.8%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
21.0%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
21.6%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
23.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
24.4%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 18Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-5
23.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Bug Howard) to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+15
23.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
24.9%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Mike Stevens for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+7
23.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 7 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+31
22.6%
Mitch Trubisky run for 16 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Nick McCloud) to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-10
29.8%
Trubisky, M rush right for 10 yards to the ST31, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NC holding (Crowley, L) 10 yards to the NC49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 20
OWN 49
0
25.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 20
OWN 49
0
24.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 20
OWN 49
0
22.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:1490% → 91%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
9.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
9.3%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+14
9.2%
Jalan McClendon run for 14 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
8.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
8.0%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+3
8.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+2
9.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:22
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)
-24.7
TD · Q4 7:52
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+19.9
TD · Q2 10:33
Matthew Dayes run for 18 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com