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MIA

Miami 27 at NC State 13

NCSU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+5NCSU 49.8%Connor Haskins 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q2 1:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:37 · Connor Haskins 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense+2.7Pregame prior−7.0Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:37: Connor Haskins 35 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:05: Mark Walton run for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +12.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:11: Mark Walton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +12.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:50: Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK) — NCSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:06: Mark Walton run for 24 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:42MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:22NCSU 4th & 6 at MIA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:05MIA 4th & 3 at NCSU 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:05NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:05NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00MIA 4th & 6 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:15NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:53MIA 4th & 19 at NCSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:09NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 29, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.2%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:09NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:33MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:37NCSU 4th & 7 at MIA 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−6.2
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:05MIA 4th & 4 at NCSU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−8.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:50NCSU 4th & 3 at MIA 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−7.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:13MIA 4th & 5 at NCSU 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−9.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:23NCSU 4th & 6 at MIA 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−5.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:06NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 25, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 14:05MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:11MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:50NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:06MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
37.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
37.0%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+4
37.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 4 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
37.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0463% → 62%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
37.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-6
37.5%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 16
OWN 17
+4
37.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 4 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+31
37.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 53 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 31 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
38.5%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
38.4%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+5
38.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
38.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim Hines, broken up by Corn ElderSimilar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
38.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:4661% → 60%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
38.6%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
38.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 12 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
38.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 17 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
38.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 6 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-5
38.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+2
38.2%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+9
38.3%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
38.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+18
38.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 18 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
38.0%
Brad Kaaya run for 5 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+2
38.0%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
38.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
39.6%
Michael Badgley 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
39.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
39.8%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
39.3%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
39.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
39.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 9 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
40.5%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
40.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Matthew DayesSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
39.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
39.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:2959% → 60%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
40.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 9 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
40.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
39.9%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
39.9%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
40.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+11
40.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 11 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
39.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 9 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-5
38.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
50
0
39.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
50
0
39.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
50
0
40.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, downed at the NCSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
41.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 11
0
41.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim Hines, broken up by Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 11
OWN 11
0
40.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for no gain to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
40.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
39.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 15 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David Njoku, broken up by Josh JonesSimilar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
39.5%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 11
OPP 41
-8
40.2%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 49 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
41.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
41.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 5 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+9
41.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
42.3%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
41.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
41.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+11
40.7%
Brady Bodine run for 11 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
43.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 3 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
43.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen Samuels, broken up by Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
42.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+5
41.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 5 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-11
40.7%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Darian Roseboro for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 21
OWN 8
+2
41.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+13
41.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
42.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:0842% → 50%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
41.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
42.2%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+39
41.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 39 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
44.9%
Ryan Finley run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+6
46.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
46.1%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
46.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
44.8%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
49.8%
Connor Haskins 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12MISSED FG
16 plays · 74 yds · 1:2655% → 58%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+23
44.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 23 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
42.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 16 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
41.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 10 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
40.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
40.0%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+12
40.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 12 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
39.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon Richards, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
38.3%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
40.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
42.2%
Michael Badgley 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
48.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5556% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
44.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 19 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Kentavius Street) to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
41.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 11 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
28.8%
Mark Walton run for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 64 yds · 0:0033% → 36%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
33.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 14 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
34.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
50
+23
36.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 23 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
37.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
37.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon Cherry, broken up by Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+14
36.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rayshawn Jenkins) to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
37.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+1
37.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
36.3%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted, touchback. Malek Young return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2669% → 86%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
31.1%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-11
31.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (-11 Yards) to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+19
31.5%
Mark Walton run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
30.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 7 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+10
29.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 10 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+51
28.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 51 yds to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
27.7%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.2%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD
16 plays · 70 yds · 6:1619% → 32%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
18.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+8
19.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 8 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
20.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
19.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 18 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
20.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+8
20.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 8 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
21.1%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
21.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+11
21.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
21.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
16.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
16.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon Cherry, broken up by Jamal Carter Sr.Similar
Q3 0:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:4373% → 73%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
27.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 13 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
25.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
24.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
24.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
26.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for no gain to the NCSt 16 Bra'Lon Cherry fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Jaquan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2978% → 81%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
21.7%
Mark Walton run for 8 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
21.7%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the NCSt 8Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
22.4%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
21.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
21.7%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
22.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IV, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q4 12:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
18.6%
Michael Badgley 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 6:5018% → 22%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
18.1%
Ryan Finley run for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
18.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 23 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
21.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-3
23.9%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+14
21.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 14 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
23.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
23.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 8 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-16
22.6%
NC STATE Penalty, clipping (Clark Eyers) to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 18
OPP 32
+19
20.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 19 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
23.9%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
23.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
22.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-5
21.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Thaddeus Moss) to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+25
22.3%
Connor Haskins 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1187% → 98%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
13.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 8 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
12.5%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
12.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, delay of game (Brad Kaaya) to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+3
13.1%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
12.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon Richards, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+15
13.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jack Tocho) to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
11.5%
Mark Walton run for 11 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
11.2%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
1.8%
Mark Walton run for 24 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
1.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-1
1.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-1
1.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:50
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q3 14:05
Mark Walton run for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 7:11
Mark Walton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com