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FSU

Florida State 24 at NC State 20

NCSU
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:37 · A.J. Cole III punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differential
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior−1.9Home team on offense+11.5Garbage-time factor+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0Score differential+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:01: Connor Haskins 20 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:20: Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:05: Jaylen Samuels run for 23 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK) — NCSU win probability +17.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +24.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:09: Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 19 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +48.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 9:23FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:04NCSU 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:39FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:36FSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:41NCSU 4th & 2 at FSU 14, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%−0.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:43FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:01NCSU 4th & 2 at FSU 2, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06NCSU 4th & 9 at FSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:08NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:44FSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 39, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−1.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:37NCSU 4th & 10 at FSU 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:04FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 27, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:37NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:09NCSU 4th & 12 at FSU 26, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−10.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:52NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:20FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:05NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:00FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:09FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1INT
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:1926% → 29%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
26.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
26.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 2 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+7
26.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Matthew Dayes, broken up by Josh SweatSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
27.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
27.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 12 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
27.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
27.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 10 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
28.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 12 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
28.5%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Tarvarus McFadden return for no gain to the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4372% → 71%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
28.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 9 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+3
28.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
28.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
28.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+8
28.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 8 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
29.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1329% → 30%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
29.2%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+10
29.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 10 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
30.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
30.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 5
50
0
30.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 5
50
0
30.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0670% → 69%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
30.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+1
30.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
30.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
31.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:3931% → 37%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
30.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+11
31.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 11 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
32.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 10 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
32.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ermon Lane) to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
32.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
32.9%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+5
32.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (DeMarcus Walker) to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
33.6%
Ryan Finley run for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
34.0%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 28 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ryan FinleySimilar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+28
37.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:1264% → 63%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
36.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 11 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
36.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
36.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 7 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
36.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
37.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
36.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
36.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 20 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
37.2%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 13
OPP 15
0
37.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 13
OPP 15
0
39.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+32
36.9%
Ricky Aguayo 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:4637% → 40%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.0%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.2%
Ryan Finley run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+31
37.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 31 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
39.7%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+16
40.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 16 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
41.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
41.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+5
40.9%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
40.2%
Kyle Bambard 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4361% → 58%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
39.4%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
40.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Roderick Johnson) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
41.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
42.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:3144% → 51%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
43.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+3
43.8%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
44.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 16 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
45.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+10
45.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
46.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.4%
Ryan Finley run for no gain to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
45.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 4:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
50.6%
Connor Haskins 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2951% → 67%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.5%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
49.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
50.3%
Kermit Whitfield run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+38
48.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 38 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
45.9%
Whitfield, Kermit pass incomplete to Izzo, Ryan, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Jones, Josh) 13 yards to the NCSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 1:0341% → 47%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
40.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
42.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+13
41.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 13 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
42.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 15 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
45.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+23
46.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 23 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
47.3%
Ryan Finley run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 2
OPP 14
-7
47.3%
Ryan Finley sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
44.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
47.2%
Connor Haskins 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
47.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:3855% → 54%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
45.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+12
44.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
43.5%
Deondre Francois sacked by Justin Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+19
46.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 19 yds Auden Tate fumbled, forced by Airius Moore, recovered by NCSt Airius MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4551% → 48%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
50.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
50.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
49.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Cole CookSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
47.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 4:1353% → 52%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
47.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
46.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
47.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 5 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
47.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
47.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-5
50.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Roderick Johnson) to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+25
51.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 25 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
45.3%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 16
50
+11
48.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 11 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
46.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
48.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 4:2752% → 78%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
51.5%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 4 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Matthew DayesSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+3
51.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+29
50.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 29 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
54.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 11 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
56.8%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete to Louis, Stephen, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (McFadden, Tarvarus) 14 yards to the FLORIDAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
57.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
57.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+13
57.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 13 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
60.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
77.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for 23 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:5626% → 51%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
75.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 16 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
73.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 14 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
73.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+14
71.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 14 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
74.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 7 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
49.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 4:1157% → 65%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
57.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen Louis, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
61.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
61.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 5 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
64.4%
Dayes, Matthew rush for 1 yard to the NCSTATE39, PENALTY NCSTATE holding 10 yards to the NCSTATE28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+25
62.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 25 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
67.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
67.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Terronne Prescod) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 13
50
+14
65.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 14 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
68.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for no gain to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
69.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
68.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
64.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 33 yds, downed at the FlaSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:2137% → 30%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
63.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 6 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+9
62.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 9 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
62.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Cut (-9 Yards) to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 19
OWN 10
0
62.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+17
63.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 17 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
67.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
70.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds, downed at the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 3:2072% → 75%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
72.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
74.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 7
50
+2
76.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-5
77.1%
Ryan Finley sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
74.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:2328% → 86%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
72.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+27
72.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 27 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+37
68.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 37 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
62.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
13.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 19 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 1:5031% → 20%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
30.5%
Ryan Finley run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Brian Burns) to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST down. Burns ejected for targeting.Similar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
37.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+6
37.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
32.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 12 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
38.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
36.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
24.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen Samuels, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 12
OPP 26
0
20.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:0593% → 94%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 13
OWN 23
-2
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-3
6.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:09
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 19 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-48.4
TD · Q3 0:00
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-24.7
TD · Q3 3:05
Jaylen Samuels run for 23 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)
+17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com