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BC

Boston College 21 at NC State 14

NCSU
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:50 · A.J. Cole III punt for 36 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 15 yds to the BC 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior+8.3Home team on offense+2.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 10:02: Mike Knoll 29 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +7.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:31: Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 23 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +24.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:43: Davon Jones pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 14 yds for a TD, (Patrick Towles pass for Two-Point Conversion) — BC win probability +49.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:34: Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 32 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST down — NCSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:34: Jon Hilliman run for 16 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST down — BC win probability +14.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:53NCSU 4th & 5 at BC 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45NCSU 4th & 7 at BC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54BC 4th & 4 at NCSU 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:40BC 4th & 14 at NCSU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:35NCSU 4th & 6 at BC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:32BC 4th & 1 at NCSU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−2.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:06NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:06BC 4th & 10 at NCSU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−5.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:19NCSU 4th & 1 at BC 29, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:02BC 4th & 11 at NCSU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−9.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:31BC 4th & 7 at BC 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:01NCSU 4th & 5 at BC 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−1.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:57BC 4th & 11 at BC 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−3.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:50NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:38BC 4th & 9 at NCSU 36, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:54NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:16BC 4th & 1 at NCSU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−4.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−8.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:24NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:35BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:31NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:43BC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    71.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.4%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+21
82.4%
Myles Willis run for 21 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
82.4%
Jeff Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
50
0
82.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by James Smith-WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
50
0
82.4%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
50
0
82.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
81.9%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 12
+7
81.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 7 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+32
81.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 17 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (William Harris) to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
82.0%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+7
81.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 7 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
82.0%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
81.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
81.0%
Davon Jones run for 2 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+5
81.1%
Davon Jones run for 5 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+7
81.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 7 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.0%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
81.0%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+20
81.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Davon Jones for 20 yds Davon Jones fumbled, forced by Bradley Chubb, recovered by NCSt Dravious WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
80.6%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the BC 48Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
80.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 4 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
80.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
80.6%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
80.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
80.6%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
80.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+17
80.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 33 yds NC STATE Penalty, kick catching interference (-16 Yards) to the BC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:3121% → 25%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
78.9%
Myles Willis run for 6 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
78.6%
Myles Willis run for 5 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
78.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 21 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
78.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+7
78.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 7 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
78.1%
NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Jerod Fernandez) to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
78.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+5
78.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 5 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
76.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff Smith BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
75.5%
Mike Knoll 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
76.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
76.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen Samuels, broken up by Zach AllenSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
75.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
75.0%
Jeff Smith run for 1 yd to the BC 32Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
75.1%
Patrick Towles run for 7 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
74.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 7 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.3%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
74.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+7
74.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 7 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
74.1%
Patrick Towles sacked by Kentavius Street for a loss of 15 yards to the NCSTATE 46 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, intentional grounding (Patrick Towles) to the BC 46Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
75.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 25
OWN 46
+2
74.9%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 23
OWN 48
+9
75.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 9 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:3173% → 77%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
72.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 8 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 21
0
73.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim Hines, broken up by Zach AllenSimilar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+79
76.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 79 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4923% → 30%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+60
69.6%
Jeff Smith run for 60 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
71.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 30 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
73.6%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 15
50
+9
72.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 9 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
73.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Dravious Wright, broken up by Gabriel McClarySimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-8
72.1%
Ryan Finley sacked by Matt Milano for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
68.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Tommy Sweeney, broken up by Bradley ChubbSimilar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
68.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+5
68.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
69.2%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
71.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
70.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Dakwa Nichols for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+2
70.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 2 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
70.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 1:4232% → 35%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-10
67.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Darian Roseboro for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 3 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, intentional grounding (Patrick Towles) to the BC 3Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 20
OWN 3
+2
68.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+15
68.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
66.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 9 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+29
65.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 29 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
64.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 17 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
63.3%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
64.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tyler Rouse for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
64.9%
Mike Knoll 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Justin JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:4769% → 65%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
68.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 9 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
69.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+9
69.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 9 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
69.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 6 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
70.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
68.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 3 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
65.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
63.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
66.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
69.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-10
68.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Will Richardson) to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-9
65.2%
Ryan Finley sacked by Harold Landry for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 21 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by BC Zach Allen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:2840% → 46%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
60.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
60.2%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+2
61.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
60.2%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+2
60.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
61.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
54.0%
Mike Knoll 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:4657% → 59%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
59.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen Louis, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
55.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 12 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.7%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Ty Schwab return for no gain to the BC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
52.1%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Josh Jones return for no gain to the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
76.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 23 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.3%
Jeff Smith run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
70.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
70.3%
Jeff Smith run for 3 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
69.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Charlie Callinan BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
70.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
72.2%
Mike Knoll punt for 39 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for no gain to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:2071% → 71%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
71.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 24 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
74.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+1
74.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49 NC STATE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+11
72.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 11 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
75.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the BC 39Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
74.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
74.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
70.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 29%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-13
67.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 37 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chris Lindstrom) to the BC 22Similar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 23
OWN 22
+7
68.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 7 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+5
69.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 5 yds Tommy Sweeney fumbled, forced by Dravious Wright, recovered by BC Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
69.8%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the BC 34Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
70.8%
Mike Knoll punt for 37 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for no gain to the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:1769% → 67%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
69.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+3
71.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
71.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-5
72.4%
NC STATE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Cole Cook) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
70.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon Cherry, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
68.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+15
66.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 36 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 15 yds to the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
65.1%
NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jerod Fernandez) to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
61.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
62.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
62.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 5 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
61.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
61.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Tyler RouseSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
62.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
65.3%
Mike Knoll punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
67.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-2
66.9%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
65.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
64.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
64.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 46 yds, downed at the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:3338% → 89%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
62.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+21
60.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 21 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
58.3%
Myles Willis run for 6 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+2
55.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
57.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
60.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
55.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive holding (Elijah Johnson) to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 20
OPP 39
0
59.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+25
60.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 25 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
11.3%
Davon Jones pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 14 yds for a TD, (Patrick Towles pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
28.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 32 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
30.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
30.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 0
OPP 6
+4
31.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (4 Yards) to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
30.8%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 3Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
30.7%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the BC 3Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
29.0%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted, touchback. Kamrin Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29Uncategorized
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
14.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 16 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
13.2%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 32Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+5
14.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (B.J. Hill) to the BC 37Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-2
13.4%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:43
Davon Jones pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 14 yds for a TD, (Patrick Towles pass for Two-Point Conversion)
-49.3
TD · Q3 8:31
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 23 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+24.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:34
Jon Hilliman run for 16 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST down
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com