Try the model
NCSU

NC State 13 at Louisville 54

LOU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—LOU 100.0%Blanton Creque 27 Yd Field GoalAWAY 13 - HOME 54 · Q4 3:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:46 · Blanton Creque 27 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Pregame prior+3.7Home team on offense+34.3Score differential+30.0Blowout margin+16.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.2Garbage-time factor+13.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:21: Jaylen Smith 74 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick) — LOU win probability +1.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 14:48: Blanton Creque 33 Yd Field Goal — LOU win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:09: Jeremy Smith 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick) — LOU win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:57: Cole Hikutini 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick) — LOU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:09: Jamari Staples 16 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick) — LOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:20LOU 4th & 14 at NCSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21NCSU 4th & 19 at LOU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:09LOU 4th & 1 at NCSU 1, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 27, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39LOU 4th & 7 at NCSU 7, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:31NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 30, down 44
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:16LOU 4th & 2 at NCSU 42, up 44
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:15NCSU 4th & 5 at LOU 38, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:45LOU 4th & 13 at NCSU 46, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:16NCSU 4th & 13 at LOU 31, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:14LOU 4th & 1 at NCSU 1, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:28NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 45, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:46LOU 4th & 10 at NCSU 10, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:41NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 21, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:09LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 49, up 41
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:27LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:21LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:09LOU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:57LOU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:09LOU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:55NCSU Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:14NCSU Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:14LOU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:1392% → 92%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
92.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 8 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+12
92.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 12 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
92.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 16 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
92.3%
Lamar Jackson 36 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
92.2%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted by Trumaine Washington, return for 13 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4092% → 92%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
92.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 13 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
92.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
92.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
92.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 4
OPP 10
-5
92.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Lukayus McNeil) to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 9
OPP 15
-5
92.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Lukayus McNeil) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+37
91.9%
Blanton Creque 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:268% → 8%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
91.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
91.8%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
91.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
91.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:1792% → 92%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
91.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
91.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Lvile 40, James Quick fumbled, forced by Josh Jones, recovered by NCSt Josh JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 2:199% → 9%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
91.3%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 18
OPP 48
-2
91.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 20
50
+1
91.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 1 yd to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 19
OPP 49
-5
91.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 24
OWN 46
+5
91.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
91.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:5491% → 93%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
91.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 9 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+4
91.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
92.9%
Jaylen Smith 74 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:507% → 7%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
92.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-3
92.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the NCSt 29 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+5
92.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (De'Asian Richardson) to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-5
92.8%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 19, Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ryan FinleySimilar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
92.9%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
92.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:1793% → 95%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
93.3%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
93.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
93.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 12 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
93.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 18 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+12
93.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith Towbridge, broken up by Josh JonesSimilar
Q1 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
93.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Kiola Mahoni) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-2
93.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
93.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole Hikutini LOUISVILLE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Lukayus McNeil) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
94.7%
Blanton Creque 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:335% → 5%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
94.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 3 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
94.9%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
95.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Ben GrazenSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
95.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 56 yds, downed at the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:2695% → 97%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
94.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Eurndraus Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 8Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+20
95.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Shawn Boone) to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+67
95.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 67 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
95.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q2 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
95.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.4%
Jeremy Smith 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:172% → 2%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 21 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
97.7%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
50
0
97.6%
Ryan Finley run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 6
50
+21
97.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 21 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
97.8%
Jakobi Meyers pass incomplete to Stephen Louis, broken up by Jaire AlexanderSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+42
98.0%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Jonathan Greenard return for 42 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:1299% → 99%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
98.5%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+10
98.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 10 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+13
98.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
98.6%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+17
98.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 17 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.9%
Cole Hikutini 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:071% → 1%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.0%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Pharoah McKeverSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+23
99.0%
Jalan McClendon pass intercepted by Stacy Thomas, return for 23 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:2299% → 99%
Q2 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
98.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 6 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kiola Mahoni) to the NCSt 16Similar
Q2 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
0
98.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
98.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
99.2%
Jamari Staples 16 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
99.1%
Johnny Frasier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+5
99.2%
Johnny Frasier run for 5 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
99.2%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
99.2%
A.J. Cole III punt blocked by Malik Williams blocked by Malik WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:0699% → 99%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
99.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+15
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 15 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+5
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 5 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
99.3%
Blanton Creque 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 5 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
99.4%
Dakwa Nichols run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
99.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 30 yds, downed at the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
99.5%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
50
-15
99.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Seth Dawkins) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 25
OWN 35
-1
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 26
OWN 34
-6
99.5%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 32
OWN 28
+30
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 30 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
99.6%
Mason King punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 98 yds · 4:050% → 0%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
99.7%
Johnny Frasier run for no gain to the NCSt 2Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
99.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+23
99.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 23 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
99.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 32 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
99.8%
Johnny Frasier run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Reggie Gallaspy II NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Bradbury) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+9
99.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (James Hearns) to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
99.8%
Dakwa Nichols run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 14Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Kelvin Harmon 14 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Dravious WrightSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 12 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 13 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
99.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-8
99.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Tyrone Riley for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Mason King punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+20
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 20 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 70 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.8%
Ryan Finley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 21
-8
99.8%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-2
99.9%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 13
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+25
99.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+10
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 10 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
99.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Lamar Atkins run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jeremy Smith 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Gavin Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Ben GrazenSimilar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-10
100.0%
Finley, Ryan rush for 13 yards to the NCSTATE49, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Scelfo, Joe) 10 yards to the NCSTATE26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+14
100.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 14 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
Cole III, A.J. punt 37 yards to the LOUISVILLE23, downed, PENALTY LOUISVILLE running into kicker 5 yards to the NCSTATE45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-3
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:42100% → 100%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
99.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Micky Crum) to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
Malik Williams run for 4 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+35
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Devante Peete for 35 yds to the NCSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
100.0%
Williams, Malik rush for 3 yards to the NCSTATE3, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the NCSTATE16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+4
100.0%
Malik Williams run for 4 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
100.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q4 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
100.0%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
100.0%
Blanton Creque 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-6
100.0%
Ryan Finley sacked by Henry Famurewa for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 16
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 16
OWN 21
0
100.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+2
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Mason King punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
100.0%
Johnny Frasier run for 3 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+6
100.0%
Johnny Frasier run for 6 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:09
Jeremy Smith 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)
+1.8
TD · Q1 5:21
Jaylen Smith 74 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)
+1.5
FG · Q2 14:48
Blanton Creque 33 Yd Field Goal
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com