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NCSU

NC State 17 at Clemson 24

CLEM
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:55 · Kyle Bambard 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 13Pregame prior+38.7Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.3Time remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:10: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:03: Deshaun Watson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +14.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:29: Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +25.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 30 — CLEM win probability +25.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 10 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +17.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:55NCSU 4th & 14 at CLEM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:17CLEM 4th & 5 at NCSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:18CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:26NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:32CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:55CLEM 4th & 1 at NCSU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:03NCSU 4th & 6 at CLEM 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:27CLEM 4th & 14 at NCSU 33, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:56NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−4.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:49NCSU 4th & 20 at CLEM 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−4.4
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−10.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 0:10CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:51NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:03CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:29NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 3:5510% → 11%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+39
90.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 39 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
90.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-5
90.0%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Clem 34Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+6
89.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
89.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 6 yds to the Clem 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
89.6%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Will Richardson) to the Clem 27Similar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
89.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Pharoah McKeverSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 15
OPP 27
-5
89.5%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Will Richardson) to the Clem 32Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 20
OPP 32
0
89.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 20
OPP 32
+6
89.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the Clem 26Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+43
89.5%
Kyle Bambard 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:4189% → 89%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
89.4%
Wayne Gallman run for 5 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
89.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 6 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
89.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 6 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
89.3%
Deshaun Watson run for 6 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
89.3%
Wayne Gallman run for 9 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+18
89.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 18 yds Wayne Gallman fumbled, forced by Dravious Wright, recovered by NCSt Airius MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1611% → 12%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
88.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+38
88.6%
Gavin Locklear pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 38 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
87.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+13
87.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 13 yds to the Clem 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
87.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Clark Eyers) to the Clem 29Similar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
87.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 20
OPP 29
-15
87.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (Joe Scelfo) to the Clem 44Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 35
OPP 44
0
87.5%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 35
OPP 44
0
87.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 35
OPP 44
0
87.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 4:1388% → 87%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
87.6%
Adam Choice run for 1 yd to the Clem 16Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+11
87.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
87.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 3 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
87.3%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+9
87.0%
Deshaun Watson run for 9 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Deon CainSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
87.2%
Deshaun Watson run for 8 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+11
87.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mike Stevens) to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
87.4%
Adam Choice run for 3 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+20
87.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 6 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (C.J. Riley) to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
87.4%
C.J. Fuller run for 4 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
87.3%
Deshaun Watson run for 1 yd to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
87.0%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Jordan LeggettSimilar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
86.9%
Greg Huegel 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:2113% → 14%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
86.8%
Ryan Finley run for 17 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
86.1%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+15
86.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 15 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
85.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Clem 47Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
85.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+13
85.8%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted K'Von Wallace return for 13 yds to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2087% → 86%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.7%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
86.5%
C.J. Fuller run for 8 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-3
86.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 48Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
85.7%
Andy Teasdall punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4614% → 14%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
85.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
85.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
86.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
86.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 46 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for no gain to the Clem 35 Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, recovered by Clem Ray-Ray McCloudSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:1885% → 85%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
85.4%
Adam Choice run for 3 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
85.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 5 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
85.5%
C.J. Fuller run for 1 yd to the Clem 44Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+10
84.7%
Christian Wilkins run for 10 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.6%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis ScottSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
85.5%
Deshaun Watson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+21
85.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 21 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
85.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 16 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.4%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.3%
C.J. Fuller run for 4 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.2%
Deshaun Watson run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.7%
Deshaun Watson run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 88 yds · 5:3516% → 24%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
84.3%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+7
84.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+9
84.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 9 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
83.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
83.4%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+11
83.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 11 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
82.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 24 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
81.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+27
81.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 27 yds to the Clem 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
79.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Clem 14Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-5
79.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 19Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 14
OPP 19
-10
80.9%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 24
OPP 29
+18
80.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 18 yds to the Clem 11Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
75.9%
Kyle Bambard 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:4479% → 88%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 8 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
80.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 14 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
81.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 7
50
+21
81.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 21 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
81.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 5 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-9
81.7%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Monty Nelson for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
79.5%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis ScottSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+16
77.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 16 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
81.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 4 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
87.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0214% → 15%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
86.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 23 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
84.9%
Jalan McClendon sacked by Carlos Watkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
78.8%
Deshaun Watson pass intercepted for a TD Mike Stevens return for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13FUMBLE
15 plays · 78 yds · 4:1479% → 79%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
78.6%
C.J. Fuller run for 5 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
78.6%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis ScottSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+8
77.2%
Deshaun Watson run for 8 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
78.4%
C.J. Fuller run for 3 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
78.5%
C.J. Fuller run for 4 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+9
78.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 9 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
79.3%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Ray-Ray McCloudSimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
78.5%
Adam Choice run for 3 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+11
77.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Tyshon Dye for 11 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
79.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 5 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+10
79.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 10 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
79.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+19
79.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 19 yds to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
79.3%
Tyshon Dye run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 5 Tyshon Dye fumbled, forced by Dravious Wright, recovered by NCSt Dravious WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2026% → 25%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
73.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Garrett Bradbury) to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+1
73.8%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the NCSt 4Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 4
-2
73.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Thaddeus Moss) to the NCSt 2Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 13
OWN 2
0
73.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 13
OWN 2
0
74.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 13
OWN 2
0
75.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3878% → 78%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
78.0%
C.J. Fuller run for 4 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
77.7%
C.J. Fuller run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+8
77.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 8 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
78.2%
C.J. Fuller run for 3 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+70
78.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 21 yds Mike Williams fumbled, forced by Niles Clark, recovered by NCSt Shawn Boone , return for 70 yds to the Clem 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1434% → 30%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
66.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+17
66.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 17 yds to the Clem 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
65.5%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 11Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-8
65.3%
Ryan Finley sacked by Scott Pagano for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 19Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
-1
68.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 20Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
70.4%
Kyle Bambard 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Christian WilkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:3972% → 90%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
72.1%
C.J. Fuller run for 10 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
72.2%
Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
71.8%
C.J. Fuller run for 2 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+8
71.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 8 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
73.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jack Tocho) to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
74.5%
C.J. Fuller run for 1 yd to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
74.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
73.8%
Adam Choice run for 4 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
75.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 12 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
74.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 12 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.6%
Deshaun Watson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:2916% → 45%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
83.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 11 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
82.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
82.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 13 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
80.7%
Ryan Finley sacked by Austin Bryant and Carlos Watkins for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 48Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+15
84.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 15 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
81.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
82.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+4
84.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
80.4%
Ryan Finley run for 12 yds to the Clem 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
80.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
80.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 11 yds to the Clem 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 25 yds · 4:2667% → 60%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
66.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to C.J. Fuller for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 23Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
65.2%
C.J. Fuller run for no gain to the Clem 23Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+29
62.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 29 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
69.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 12 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
69.7%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Deon CainSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
69.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+4
68.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 4 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
70.4%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Darian Roseboro for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-11
70.0%
CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Leggett) to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 23
OPP 37
-10
66.2%
CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Fruhmorgen) to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 33
OPP 47
0
65.1%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Hunter RenfrowSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 33
OPP 47
0
62.6%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Jordan LeggettSimilar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 33
OPP 47
0
59.8%
Andy Teasdall punt for 18 yds, downed at the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20DOWNS
20 plays · 55 yds · 6:1545% → 61%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
55.4%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
55.6%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+10
55.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cordrea Tankersley) to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
50.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 3
50
+5
48.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
48.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
46.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
46.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 5 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
44.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
42.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the Clem 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
39.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the Clem 19Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
38.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the Clem 13Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+1
39.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Clem 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
36.9%
Ryan Finley sacked by Dexter Lawrence for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 16Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+33
39.4%
Kyle Bambard 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
64.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 30Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+4
63.4%
Deshaun Watson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+6
64.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
62.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 4 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
59.4%
C.J. Fuller run for 2 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
64.7%
C.J. Fuller run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+11
64.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-9
64.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 10 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
82.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 10 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted, touchback. Marcus Edmond return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:29
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-25.7
KEY PLAY · OT 0:00
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 30
+25.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com