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WAKE

Wake Forest 16 at NC State 33

NCSU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:31 · Dom Maggio punt for 51 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 5 yds to the NCSt 34 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Nicholas Lacy) to the NCSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Home team on offense+16.5Pregame prior+8.7Score differential+5.6Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Time remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:23: Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:12: Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 36 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED) — NCSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:12: Mike Weaver 29 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +4.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:25: John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +9.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:53: Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WAKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:26WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54NCSU 4th & 3 at WAKE 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:47WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:47NCSU 4th & 1 at WAKE 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:45WAKE 4th & 7 at NCSU 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:12WAKE 4th & 3 at NCSU 11, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:07NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 21, up 17
    Close callPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:03WAKE 4th & 8 at NCSU 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:58NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:05WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:59WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:41NCSU 4th & 10 at WAKE 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:31WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:02NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 30 at NCSU 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:02WAKE 4th & 3 at NCSU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−1.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:48WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:32NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:23NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:12NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:25WAKE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:53NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2871% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 12 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
71.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 39 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.1%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
71.1%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+12
71.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 12 yds to the WFrst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
71.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the WFrst 6Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
72.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.6%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
71.6%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
71.8%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:4472% → 73%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
72.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 11 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
72.2%
Jakobi Meyers pass complete to Cole Cook for 27 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
72.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 5 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+7
72.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the WFrst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
72.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the WFrst 2Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
72.2%
Jalan McClendon run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 3Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
72.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Matthew DayesSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
72.5%
Kyle Bambard 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
72.0%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+12
72.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 12 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
71.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 1 yd to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+2
71.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 2 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
71.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete, broken up by B.J. HillSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
72.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:2473% → 80%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
73.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 17 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
73.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
73.3%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+41
73.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 41 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
73.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+1
73.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the WFrst 15Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
73.4%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the WFrst 15Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+2
73.0%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
73.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
73.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for no gain to the WFrst 13Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
80.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:3221% → 23%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
79.0%
John Wolford sacked by Jack Tocho for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 18Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+35
79.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 35 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
78.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 12 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
79.2%
Rocky Reid run for 1 yd to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
79.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 2 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
79.6%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
77.2%
Mike Weaver 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3379% → 89%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.8%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
78.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
78.8%
Ryan Finley run for 10 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
79.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
79.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
79.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Maurice Trowell for no gain to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
79.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 13 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
88.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 36 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:5112% → 17%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
88.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 26 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.7%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
87.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 9 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-15
87.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+23
88.4%
John Wolford run for 23 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.3%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+20
87.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 5 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Josh Jones) to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
86.7%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
86.7%
NC STATE Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+1
86.7%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
87.2%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
82.8%
Mike Weaver 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
85.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+7
85.6%
Ryan Finley run for 7 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
85.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen Louis, broken up by Chris StewartSimilar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
84.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates at the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:3816% → 19%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
84.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Mike Stevens) to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
83.4%
John Wolford run for 14 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
82.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 10 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
82.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 2 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
82.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck Wade, broken up by Dravious WrightSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
83.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck Wade, broken up by Josh JonesSimilar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
81.1%
Mike Weaver 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Matthew DayesSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
82.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
82.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
81.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:0518% → 18%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
82.3%
Matt Colburn run for 22 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck Wade, broken up by Niles ClarkSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
82.0%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-1
81.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt Colburn for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+6
82.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 52 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 6 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
82.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Marquel Lee) to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
82.4%
Ryan Finley sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+5
82.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 5 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
84.8%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 7Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+5
84.9%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 4
OPP 0
-11
82.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 4 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (-15 Yards) to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
83.6%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
83.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.3%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam Serigne, broken up by Josh JonesSimilar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
83.3%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q3 14:59
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
84.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:1686% → 91%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
86.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 24 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
86.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 12 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
86.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+17
86.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 17 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
86.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
86.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Maurice TrowellSimilar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
90.7%
Kyle Bambard 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
89.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck WadeSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+14
89.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 14 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck WadeSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
89.8%
John Wolford run for 10 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.9%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
89.2%
Rocky Reid run for 1 yd to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-8
89.5%
John Wolford sacked by Josh Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+5
90.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 51 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 5 yds to the NCSt 34 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Nicholas Lacy) to the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
92.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 13Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+8
92.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
92.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon Cherry, broken up by Thomas BrownSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+6
91.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 54 yds , Jessie Bates returns for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:109% → 17%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
91.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 6 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+15
91.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 15 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
91.1%
John Wolford sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+40
91.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 40 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.7%
John Wolford run for no gain to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
91.7%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
82.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 2:1885% → 86%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
85.2%
NC STATE Penalty, illegal cut (Garrett Bradbury) to the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+10
85.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Gavin Locklear for 10 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+32
85.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 17 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
86.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-15
86.0%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Joe Scelfo) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+23
86.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 23 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
88.7%
NC STATE Penalty, illegal cut (Garrett Bradbury) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
50
0
88.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 25
50
0
87.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 25
50
-5
86.9%
NC STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 30
OWN 45
0
86.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen Louis, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 30
OWN 45
0
86.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates at the WFrst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 59 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
88.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
88.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 8 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+7
88.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+35
87.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 20 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Shawn Boone) to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
85.0%
John Wolford sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 49 John Wolford fumbled, recovered by WFrst Ryan Anderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+11
86.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 11 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
85.3%
John Wolford run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+2
86.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 2 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:5189% → 98%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
88.6%
NC STATE Penalty, sideline interference (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
88.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+14
88.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 14 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
89.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 29 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
90.0%
Ryan Finley run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
89.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+8
89.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 8 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
90.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
90.0%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the WFrst 7Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
98.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
97.3%
Kyle Kearns pass incomplete to Steven ClaudeSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
97.3%
Kyle Kearns pass complete to Chuck Wade for 15 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Kyle Kearns pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Jack TochoSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
Kyle Kearns pass complete to Cam Serigne for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Kyle Kearns pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 50 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for no gain to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
98.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
98.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
98.2%
Dakwa Nichols run for 9 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.3%
Johnny Frasier run for no gain to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+14
98.3%
Johnny Frasier run for 14 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
98.3%
Johnny Frasier run for 1 yd to the WFrst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:12
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 36 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED)
+9.1
TD · Q3 2:25
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
-9
TD · Q4 5:53
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com