2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSCST aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSCST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:39 · Greg Huegel 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:20: Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:18: Nick Schuessler pass complete to Diondre Overton for 45 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SCST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 4:36SCST 4th & 8 at SCST 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 1:39CLEM 4th & 9 at SCST 9, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%89% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:46SCST 4th & 15 at SCST 20, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 12:07SCST 4th & 7 at SCST 28, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 6:43SCST 4th & 6 at SCST 28, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q2 3:43CLEM 4th & 10 at SCST 25, up 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%66% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:09SCST 4th & 9 at CLEM 33, down 45Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.132% to convertField goal0.2%49% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:59SCST 4th & 3 at SCST 32, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 8:28CLEM 4th & 1 at SCST 35, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.245% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:29CLEM 4th & 4 at SCST 4, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%40% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:28SCST 4th & 11 at SCST 37, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:43SCST 4th & 5 at SCST 48, down 59Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:04CLEM 4th & 8 at SCST 38, up 59Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%35% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.138% to makePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:57SCST 4th & 16 at SCST 27, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 4:28CLEM 4th & 9 at SCST 48, up 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 1:28SCST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 11:33CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:20CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:20CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:18CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:41CLEM Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:56CLEM Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:29CLEM Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:55CLEM Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD11 plays · 69 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q1 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+9
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 9 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 5 yds to the SCSt 39Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+22
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 22 yds to the SCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 7 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 1 yds · 2:580% → 0%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Caleb York pass complete to Kanome Mcintosh for 2 yds to the SCSt 27Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.8%
Caleb York pass complete to Kanome Mcintosh for 7 yds to the SCSt 34Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+16
99.8%
Caleb York pass complete to Lynard Jamison for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
50
-3
99.8%
Caleb York sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 3 yards to the SCSt 47Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 18
OWN 42
-11
99.7%
Caleb York sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 11 yards to the SCSt 31Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 34
OWN 26
+5
99.7%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 55 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 5 yds to the Clem 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD10 plays · 76 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q1 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+23
99.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 3 yds to the SCSt 47Similar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
99.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 12 yds to the SCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
99.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 15 yds to the SCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q1 4:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD4 plays · 64 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 7INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:190% → 0%
CLEMDrive 8FG4 plays · -7 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q1 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
99.8%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Shaquan Brock for a loss of 3 yards to the SCSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 9DOWNS5 plays · -5 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Caleb York pass complete to Tra'Quan Dubose for no gain to the SCSt 25Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
Caleb York sacked by Scott Pagano for a loss of 5 yards to the SCSt 20Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+31
99.8%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 50 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 31 yds to the SCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD3 plays · 39 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the SCSt 35Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the SCSt 36Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+36
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 36 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q2 12:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+20
99.9%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 41 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 20 yds to the SCSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD7 plays · 49 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q2 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+10
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Cornell Powell for 10 yds to the SCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
S CAROLINA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SCSt 17Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 17 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:500% → 0%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
99.9%
Caleb York pass complete to Austin Ruger for 7 yds to the SCSt 21Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Caleb York pass complete to LeBron Morris for 5 yds to the SCSt 28Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+30
99.9%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 45 yds , Adrien Dunn returns for 30 yds to the SCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14MISSED FG8 plays · 18 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 15DOWNS14 plays · 42 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q2 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
Caleb York pass complete to Lynard Jamison for 9 yds to the SCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the SCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+8
99.9%
Caleb York pass complete to Lynard Jamison for 8 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q3 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cornell Powell at the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD15 plays · 65 yds · 4:25100% → 100%
Q3 10:09
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+16
99.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Deon Cain for 16 yds to the SCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+16
99.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Adam Choice for 16 yds to the SCSt 35Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+22
99.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Cannon Smith for 22 yds to the SCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
S CAROLINA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (6 Yards) to the SCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
S CAROLINA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (3 Yards) to the SCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 19FUMBLE9 plays · 19 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q3 5:24
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+21
100.0%
Dondre Brown run for 6 yds to the SCSt 23 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-3
100.0%
Caleb York sacked by Albert Huggins for a loss of 3 yards to the SCSt 37Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 33 yds , Cornell Powell returns for no gain to the Clem 30 Cornell Powell fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD7 plays · 70 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 7 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 3:540% → 0%
Q4 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Amir Trapp at the Clem 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 46 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 23FUMBLE4 plays · -6 yds · 1:550% → 0%
CLEMDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
100.0%
Tucker Israel pass complete to Jack Swinney for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 48Similar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
100.0%
Tucker Israel pass complete to Grant Radakovich for 8 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+2
100.0%
Carson King punt for 37 yds , Ahmaad Harris returns for 2 yds to the SCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 1:28
4TH & 5
50
+6
100.0%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 33 yds , Amir Trapp returns for 6 yds to the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 31 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:20
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q1 3:18
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Diondre Overton for 45 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+0.1