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NCSU

NC State 30 at East Carolina 33

ECU
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-7.5ECU 39.6%Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds for a TD,(Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 13 - HOME 12 · Q2 6:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:25 · Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+19.0+9.50−9.5−19.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior−6.4Home team on offense−4.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:26: Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for 25 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +11.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:07: Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 80 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:04: James Summers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +24.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:04: Ryan Finley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +25.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:49: Anthony Scott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +32.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09ECU 4th & 6 at NCSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:22NCSU 4th & 1 at ECU 27, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:02NCSU 4th & 8 at ECU 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:02ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 34, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 2 at NCSU 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:00ECU 4th & 11 at NCSU 26, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:07ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:31ECU 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.4%−1.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:18ECU 4th & 6 at NCSU 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 40, down 1
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:47NCSU 4th & 5 at ECU 11, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:05NCSU 4th & 4 at ECU 13, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−11.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:49NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:41ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:39ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:15NCSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:25NCSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:26ECU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:07NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:04ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:04NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:49ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
39.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
39.5%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
39.5%
Ryan Finley sacked by Dayon Pratt for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
39.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds, downed at the ECaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:3041% → 42%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
40.5%
Anthony Scott run for 7 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+12
40.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 12 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for no gain to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+33
40.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 33 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
40.7%
Quay Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
40.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for 6 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
40.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q1 10:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
41.9%
Davis Plowman 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:4759% → 57%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
41.5%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+28
41.6%
Gavin Locklear pass complete to Stephen Louis for 28 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
41.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
41.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
41.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+44
42.6%
Connor Haskins 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:4343% → 47%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+39
42.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for 39 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
43.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for no gain to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
43.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+12
43.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for 12 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+27
46.8%
James Summers run for 27 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:3754% → 52%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
46.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 8 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+14
45.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 14 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
45.4%
Finley, R. middle pass incomplete to Louis, S. (FULP, Bobby), PENALTY ECU personal foul (FULP, Bobby) 16 yards to the ECU27, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
44.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+1
45.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 1 yd to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
45.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
48.5%
Connor Haskins 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 6:0248% → 59%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
48.2%
James Summers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
48.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
47.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
47.6%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
48.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for no gain to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
48.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+17
48.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 17 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
49.2%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Jack TochoSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
51.0%
Philip Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+5
50.2%
NELSON, Philip sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY ST offside defense (Chubb, B.) 5 yards to the ST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+4
50.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 4 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+5
50.0%
Philip Nelson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
51.3%
Anthony Scott run for 7 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-8
51.3%
Philip Nelson sacked by James Smith-Williams and Airius Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
50.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
58.8%
Davis Plowman 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:4544% → 53%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
55.9%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+10
55.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 10 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
55.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
55.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+14
55.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 14 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
54.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+37
47.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 37 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
51.7%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted Jack Tocho return for no gain to the ECaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:3952% → 60%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
48.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 12 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
48.0%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
48.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Garrett Bradbury) to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+34
49.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 34 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
47.0%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5944% → 59%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.4%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29 Anthony Scott fumbled, forced by Shawn Boone,Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+28
44.7%
Devin Anderson run for 28 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
47.3%
NC STATE Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
48.2%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+4
48.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 4 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
59.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for 25 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
42.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 80 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.8%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
44.6%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
43.4%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete, broken up by Jerod FernandezSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
42.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
41.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
41.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Matthew DayesSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+1
42.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 1 yd Bra'Lon Cherry fumbled, forced by Dayon Pratt, recovered by ECaro Travon SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 15 yds · 2:5548% → 48%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
48.4%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
48.2%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+8
47.5%
Philip Nelson run for 8 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
46.5%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
49.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+5
47.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 5 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
47.2%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+5
44.5%
PLOWMAN, Davis field goal attempt from 45 MISSED - wide left,, clock 00:24, PENALTY ST roughing the kicker (Stevens, Mi.) 5 yards to the ST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
48.3%
Davis Plowman 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
44.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
45.3%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
45.2%
Anthony Scott run for 6 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+8
44.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
45.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-5
45.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Messiah Rice) to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+6
45.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+8
44.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
45.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
44.2%
Ryan Finley run for 6 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+54
42.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 54 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
39.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-1
39.7%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 11Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
41.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+1
43.2%
A.J. Cole III run for 1 yd to the ECaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
46.0%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 9Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+6
45.4%
Anthony Scott run for 6 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+4
44.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for 4 yds Anthony Scott fumbled, forced by B.J. Hill, recovered by NCSt Kentavius StreetSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0660% → 63%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
39.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for no gain to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
40.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 6 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
41.3%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
37.4%
Kyle Bambard 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0141% → 64%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
40.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Devin Anderson for 2 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
40.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 4 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
42.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 12 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
44.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 13 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
46.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 6 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+13
46.5%
Zay Jones run for 13 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
39.8%
NELSON, Philip pass complete to BAGGETT, Steve for 8 yards to the ST7 (Moore, A.), PENALTY ECU holding off-setting, PENALTY ST roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
64.2%
James Summers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 6:0042% → 72%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
58.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 7 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+19
58.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 19 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
56.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
54.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
54.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 13 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
53.3%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+8
54.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 8 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
55.3%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
53.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen Samuels, broken up by DaShawn BentonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
53.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 13 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
53.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
28.0%
Ryan Finley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 7:1537% → 77%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
36.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
37.4%
James Summers run for no gain to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
36.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+7
38.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
40.3%
Devin Anderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+18
37.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 18 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
42.2%
Philip Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+5
41.4%
Devin Anderson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+15
41.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 15 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
44.2%
Devin Anderson run for 14 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
44.2%
Devin Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 15Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+4
43.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for 4 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+3
41.8%
NELSON, Philip middle pass incomplete to JONES, Zay, PENALTY ST pass interference (Stevens, Mi.) 3 yards to the ST8, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
44.2%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.7%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
67.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 7 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+3
66.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
66.7%
Finley, R. pass complete to Dayes, M. for 9 yards to the ST23 (GREEN, Pat), PENALTY ST ineligible downfield on pass (Jones, T.) 5 yards to the ST9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 15
OWN 9
0
67.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete, broken up by Justin BrownSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+16
67.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 16 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
68.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
70.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 61 yds, downed at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:5484% → 87%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
83.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 6 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+5
85.7%
Devin Anderson run for 5 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
85.7%
Devin Anderson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-2
87.7%
Devin Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+7
86.4%
Devin Anderson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+2
86.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 30 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
86.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 2 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+14
85.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 14 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Matthew DayesSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
83.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Matthew DayesSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+22
85.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 22 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:49
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
+32.5
TD · Q4 13:04
Ryan Finley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-25.3
TD · Q3 4:04
James Summers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
+24.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com