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W&M

William & Mary 14 at NC State 48

NCSU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadW&M aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreW&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:04 · Hunter Windmuller punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+36.2Score differential+31.2Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.5Blowout margin+17.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:22: Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka KICK) — W&M win probability +1.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:48: Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:20: Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:24: Steve Cluley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka KICK) — W&M win probability +3.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:34: Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4W&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q2 13:28W&M 4th & 17 at W&M 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  2. Q3 13:24NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  3. Q3 12:09W&M 4th & 15 at W&M 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  4. Q3 6:28W&M 4th & 13 at W&M 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:56NCSU 4th & 1 at W&M 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:30W&M 4th & 7 at W&M 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 1 at W&M 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:09W&M 4th & 2 at W&M 33, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:46W&M 4th & 1 at W&M 40, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:38NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 37, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:04W&M 4th & 7 at W&M 27, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7W&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:36NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:22W&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:43NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:48NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:20NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:24W&M Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:34NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:14NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:02NCSU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2497% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
97.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
97.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
97.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
50
+14
97.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 14 yds to the WmMry 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
97.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 22 yds to the WmMry 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
97.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the WmMry 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
97.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the WmMry 5Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
96.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Haskins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:143% → 5%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.8%
Albert Funderburke run for 1 yd to the WmMry 26Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
96.8%
Albert Funderburke run for 3 yds to the WmMry 29Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
96.8%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 9 yds to the WmMry 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
96.8%
Jonathan Dunn run for 1 yd to the WmMry 39Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+16
96.8%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 16 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
96.8%
Albert Funderburke run for 7 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+7
96.8%
Jonathan Dunn run for 7 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
96.8%
Jonathan Dunn run for 4 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+8
96.8%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Daniel Kuzjak for 8 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
96.8%
Albert Funderburke run for 3 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
95.1%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:3995% → 95%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
95.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27 NC STATE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+4
95.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 4 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+11
95.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 11 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
95.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
95.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 8 yds to the NCSt 49 WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+6
95.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Cole Cook for 6 yds to the WmMry 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
95.6%
Ryan Finley sacked by Arman Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the WmMry 49Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+4
95.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 4 yds to the WmMry 45Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+17
95.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 17 yds to the WmMry 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
95.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the WmMry 26Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
95.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the WmMry 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+7
94.4%
Ryan Finley run for 7 yds to the WmMry 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.5%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
94.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the WmMry 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
94.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the WmMry 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:056% → 5%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.5%
Steve Cluley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-8
94.6%
Jalen Christian run for 2 yds to the WmMry 43 WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WmMry 47Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
95.1%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 18
OWN 47
-2
94.9%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Kendell Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 45Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+3
95.0%
Kendell Anderson run for 3 yds to the WmMry 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5INT
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
94.7%
Jalan McClendon run for 6 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+13
94.7%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 13 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
94.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
94.9%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+24
94.7%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 24 yds to the WmMry 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
95.0%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Maurice Trowell for 6 yds to the WmMry 34 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Kelvin Harmon) to the WmMry 44Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 14
OPP 44
+4
94.9%
Jalan McClendon run for a loss of 3 yards to the WmMry 43 Jalan McClendon fumbled, recovered by NCSt Reggie Gallaspy II , return for 4 yds to the WmMry 43Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+5
94.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the WmMry 38Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+9
94.9%
Jalan McClendon pass intercepted Corey Parker return for 9 yds to the WmMry 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 6INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
94.0%
Albert Funderburke run for 2 yds to the WmMry 30Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+11
94.0%
Steve Cluley pass intercepted Jerod Fernandez return for 11 yds to the WmMry 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:3095% → 96%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
94.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the WmMry 17Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 1
OPP 17
-9
94.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the WmMry 16 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WmMry 26Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
94.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 2 yds to the WmMry 24Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+21
94.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 21 yds to the WmMry 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
94.7%
NC STATE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the WmMry 8Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
94.7%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the WmMry 6Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
94.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the WmMry 3Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 8INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.4%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Jack Armstrong for 9 yds to the WmMry 34Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
95.1%
Kendell Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WmMry 33Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
95.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Shawn Boone) to the WmMry 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.2%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to DeVonte DedmonSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
95.3%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Kendell AndersonSimilar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+8
95.4%
Steve Cluley sacked by Kentavius Street for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kentavius Street) to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
95.1%
Kendell Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
95.3%
Steve Cluley pass intercepted Josh Jones return for 9 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:0996% → 98%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+16
96.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 16 yds to the WmMry 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
96.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
96.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+21
95.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 6 yds to the WmMry 38 for a 1ST down WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Marcus Harvey) to the WmMry 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
95.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the WmMry 16Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+16
98.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 11TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:362% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
97.8%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, false start (Andrew Caskin) to the WmMry 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Daniel KuzjakSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+15
97.9%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Justin Jones) to the WmMry 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
97.7%
Albert Funderburke run for 13 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
97.7%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 32 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.0%
Steve Cluley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
95.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 3 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
95.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
94.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 41 yds, fair catch by DeVonte Dedmon at the WmMry 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.8%
Albert Funderburke run for 3 yds to the WmMry 33Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
94.8%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 2 yds to the WmMry 35Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-15
94.9%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, personal foul (Andrew Caskin) to the WmMry 20Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+5
95.2%
Kendell Anderson run for 5 yds to the WmMry 25Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:0495% → 99%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
95.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+10
95.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 10 yds to the WmMry 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the WmMry 43Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
95.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the WmMry 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
95.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the WmMry 33Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+10
95.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for 10 yds to the WmMry 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
95.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for 4 yds to the WmMry 19Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
95.5%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the WmMry 14Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+6
95.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 6 yds to the WmMry 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
98.3%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Jalen ChristianSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
98.3%
Steve Cluley run for 2 yds to the WmMry 15Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-5
98.3%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WmMry 10Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
98.3%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Daniel KuzjakSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 13
OWN 10
0
98.3%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WmMry 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
98.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 30 yds to the WmMry 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the WmMry 1Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the WmMry 1Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the WmMry 1Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.4%
Ryan Finley run for no gain to the WmMry 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
98.6%
Steve Cluley run for 1 yd to the WmMry 2Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
98.7%
Kendell Anderson run for 2 yds to the WmMry 4Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
98.7%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to DeVonte Dedmon, broken up by Jack TochoSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+13
98.7%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 42 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 13 yds to the WmMry 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:2999% → 100%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the WmMry 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
99.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the WmMry 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
99.1%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the WmMry 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+4
99.0%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the WmMry 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the WmMry 14Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Albert Funderburke run for 1 yd to the WmMry 26Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
99.9%
Albert Funderburke run for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 24Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
99.9%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Jonathan Dunn for 9 yds to the WmMry 33Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 9 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+29
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 29 yds to the WmMry 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Dakwa Nichols run for 2 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
Dakwa Nichols run for 11 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 7 yds to the WmMry 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
Johnny Frasier run for 8 yds to the WmMry 36Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Johnny Frasier run for 6 yds to the WmMry 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Johnny Frasier run for no gain to the WmMry 30Similar
Q4 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Johnny Frasier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Jonathan Dunn run for no gain to the WmMry 31Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Jonathan Dunn run for 2 yds to the WmMry 33Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Tommy McKee pass complete to Jonathan Dunn for 7 yds to the WmMry 40Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Stephen MorrisonSimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
100.0%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-10
100.0%
Jalan McClendon sacked by Josh Dulaney for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
99.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 39 yds, downed at the WmMry 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
100.0%
Tommy McKee run for 6 yds to the WmMry 30Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Brehon Britt run for no gain to the WmMry 30Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-3
100.0%
Tommy McKee run for a loss of 3 yards to the WmMry 27Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
Johnny Frasier run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Johnny Frasier run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
Johnny Frasier run for 3 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:24
Steve Cluley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q3 6:34
Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 0:20
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com