2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:30 · Bailey Cate punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Thomas Owens at the ODU 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:51: Christian Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +12.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:15: David Washington pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Brown return for 45 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +15.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:07: Ray Lawry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +13.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:22: David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 18 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +10.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:50: Jeremy Cox run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +7.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 9:34ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it81.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q1 6:59FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it19.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.5%average punt
- Q1 3:00FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.7%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q1 1:25ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt81.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 13:42FIU 4th & 4 at ODU 48, down 7Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it19.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:25FIU 4th & 12 at ODU 37, down 7Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.324% to convertField goal18.2%40% to makePuntTheir call18.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 4:30ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 13, up 7Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it80.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:03ODU 4th & 7 at FIU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.6%37% to convertField goal71.7%−0.932% to makePunt72.4%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:04FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snapGo for it31.0%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.1%average punt
- Q3 5:22ODU 4th & 4 at FIU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.4%47% to convertField goal69.2%−0.279% to makePunt60.1%−9.3average punt
- Q4 13:50FIU 4th & 19 at FIU 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it5.5%−2.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q4 10:43FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 45, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 5:31ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 36, up 21Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:21FIU 4th & 1 at ODU 49, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:21FIU 4th & 1 at ODU 25, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−0.271% to convertField goal1.0%66% to makePunt0.3%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 13:09ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:39FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.0%97% to makeGo for two19.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:00ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.4%97% to makeGo for two81.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:51FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.9%97% to makeGo for two25.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:15FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.3%97% to makeGo for two40.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:07ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.0%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:22ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.3%97% to makeGo for two79.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:50ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:43ODU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:23FIU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.2%
Maurice Alexander pass intercepted Aaron Young return for 1 yd to the FlaIn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2TD4 plays · 41 yds · 1:4483% → 83%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
83.2%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for 11 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3017% → 19%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.0%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Thomas Owens for 12 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
82.9%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 5 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+36
81.2%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 36 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:34
3RD & 10
50
+4
81.7%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 4 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 6
OPP 46
-5
81.7%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the ODU 49Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
81.5%
Bailey Cate punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thomas Owens at the FlaIn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:59
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
80.8%
Maurice Alexander pass incomplete to Thomas Owens, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
81.0%
Stone Wilson punt for 33 yds , Darrell Brown returns for no gain to the 50 yard line Darrell Brown fumbled, recovered by ODU Darrell Brown , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6TD7 plays · 50 yds · 2:3181% → 83%
Q1 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+9
80.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 9 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
81.1%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+11
82.9%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 11 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
82.0%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
82.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 31 yds , Isaiah Harper returns for no gain to the ODU 28 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8FUMBLE8 plays · 23 yds · 1:2582% → 83%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-4
82.8%
David Washington run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 46 David Washington fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Niko GonzalezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10FUMBLE8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0082% → 83%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
81.7%
Zach Pascal run for 2 yds to the ODU 12 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Imarjaye Albury) to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
82.5%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 11 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
82.8%
David Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 45 David Washington fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Anthony WintSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3219% → 18%
ODUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 4:30
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
81.3%
Bailey Cate punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Thomas Owens at the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13TD4 plays · 45 yds · 1:4120% → 33%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
66.6%
Christian Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14END OF HALF12 plays · 68 yds · 0:4374% → 73%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
74.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Zach Pascal for 5 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+9
75.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Zach Pascal for 9 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
75.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Zach Pascal for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+12
73.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Ray Lawry for 12 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
75.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 3 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+40
72.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 40 yds to the FlaIn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15INT TD4 plays · 15 yds · 0:4073% → 60%
ODUDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0858% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
ODUDrive 18TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1871% → 85%
FIUDrive 19MISSED FG8 plays · -19 yds · 4:1321% → 16%
Q3 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-8
78.7%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaIn 31 Maurice Alexander fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Dieugot Joseph , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:1187% → 96%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
87.2%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 34 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
93.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Darrius Scott) to the FlaIn 13Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+6
94.0%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Thomas Owens for 6 yds to the FlaIn 16Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
94.1%
Christian Alexander pass incomplete to Thomas Owens, broken up by Rashaad CowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22TD5 plays · 49 yds · 1:3696% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
ODUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 5:31
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+6
99.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 21 , Tony Gaiter IV returns for 6 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25TD14 plays · 79 yds · 3:581% → 3%
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+21
99.5%
Christian Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 21 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
99.4%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 9 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.4%
ALEXANDER, C. pass incomplete to SMITH, Jonnu, PENALTY ODU pass interference (WILLIAMS, S.) 9 yards to the ODU34, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.3%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Alex Gardner for 9 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.2%
Christian Alexander pass incomplete to Stantley Thomas, broken up by Aaron YoungSimilar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
97.0%
Christian Alexander run for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:15
David Washington pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Brown return for 45 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
-15
TD · Q3 12:07
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q2 0:51
Christian Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
-12.5