2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:03 · Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Nate Terry
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:20: Devin Singletary run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +9.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:02: David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 6 yds for a TD, (D. Washington Run For Two-point Conversion) — ODU win probability +14.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:57: David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 45 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +14.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:51: David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +12.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:03: David Washington pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 84 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +12.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:13FAU 4th & 1 at ODU 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.6%59% to convertField goal34.3%−0.394% to makePunt33.6%−0.9average punt
- Q1 7:00ODU 4th & 2 at FAU 2, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snapGo for it62.0%48% to convertField goalTheir call61.7%−0.394% to makePunt60.4%−1.6average punt
- Q1 3:11ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 49, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt56.7%−1.0average punt
- Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 1 at FAU 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.6%70% to convertField goal53.1%−1.534% to makePunt53.2%−1.4average punt
- Q2 13:44FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 32, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it40.3%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.9%average punt
- Q2 11:39ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 21, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.4%−1.030% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.5%average punt
- Q2 3:16ODU 4th & 8 at FAU 8, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snapGo for it38.6%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call39.2%90% to makePunt34.5%−4.6average punt
- Q2 1:00FAU 4th & 4 at ODU 13, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snapGo for it59.5%−0.246% to convertField goalTheir call59.7%85% to makePunt52.4%−7.4average punt
- Q3 11:02ODU 4th & 3 at FAU 6, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.1%46% to convertField goal36.6%−1.591% to makePunt24.8%−13.4average punt
- Q3 11:02FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snapGo for it44.8%−0.939% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q3 4:35FAU 4th & 8 at ODU 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snapGo for it29.8%−1.430% to convertField goalTheir call31.2%85% to makePunt19.4%−11.8average punt
- Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 31, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it17.0%−1.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q4 13:03FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 43, down 18Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.7%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.0%average punt
- Q4 10:43ODU 4th & 4 at FAU 37, up 18Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%48% to convertField goal95.0%−0.840% to makePuntTheir call95.0%−0.9average punt
- Q4 9:10FAU 4th & 2 at ODU 10, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%55% to convertField goal5.0%−0.288% to makePunt1.4%−3.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 10:13FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.8%97% to makeGo for two35.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:11FAU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.1%97% to makeGo for two43.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:44ODU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.6%97% to makeGo for two59.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:20FAU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.3%97% to makeGo for two51.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:02ODU Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick51.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call51.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:57ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.8%97% to makeGo for two68.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:51ODU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:03ODU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1TD14 plays · 57 yds · 4:4726% → 30%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
26.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 4 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+16
26.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 16 yds to the ODU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
26.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 10 yds to the ODU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2FG10 plays · 77 yds · 3:1370% → 70%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
29.7%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 7 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+38
29.5%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 38 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
29.0%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 11 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
29.0%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 15 yds to the FlAtl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD11 plays · 63 yds · 3:4931% → 39%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
31.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 14 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4TD13 plays · 70 yds · 4:2763% → 67%
FAUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
ODUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3764% → 60%
Q2 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-3
39.0%
David Washington sacked by Haiden Nagel and Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD3 plays · 27 yds · 0:3340% → 49%
ODUDrive 8FG18 plays · 67 yds · 7:0453% → 48%
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
47.4%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 16 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
46.2%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 8 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
45.3%
WASHINGTON, D. pass incomplete to FULGHAM, Travis, PENALTY FAU holding (LEWIS, Shelton) 10 yards to the FAU36, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
44.5%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 10 yds to the FlAtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9MISSED FG9 plays · 59 yds · 2:1653% → 58%
ODUDrive 10MISSED FG8 plays · 59 yds · 1:0042% → 47%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
57.8%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 17Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+16
58.3%
David Washington pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 16 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
56.9%
David Washington pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 15 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
56.7%
WASHINGTON, D. pass intercepted by KITTLES, Richie at the FAU17, KITTLES, Richie return to the FAU22, PENALTY FAU offside (NAGEL, Haiden) 5 yards to the FAU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
53.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 10 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5844% → 61%
FAUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 11:02
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
42.2%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler Cameron, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD7 plays · 91 yds · 3:2558% → 77%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
41.8%
David Washington pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 6 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+29
42.7%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 29 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
38.4%
David Washington pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 5 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
37.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 4 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
22.9%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 45 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14FG6 plays · 40 yds · 1:2231% → 36%
ODUDrive 15TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4467% → 84%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 8 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
30.0%
David Washington pass complete to Kesean Strong for 4 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+15
30.0%
COX, Jeremy rush for loss of 3 yards to the FAU41 (BURDEN, K;INTERNICOLA, Ni), PENALTY FAU personal foul (WHITFIELD, D.) 15 yards to the FAU23, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
28.6%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 9 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+12
28.6%
WASHINGTON, D. pass incomplete to PASCAL, Zach, PENALTY FAU pass interference (KITTLES, Richie) 12 yards to the FAU2, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5118% → 16%
ODUDrive 17TD2 plays · 86 yds · 0:5683% → 96%
FAUDrive 18DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
5.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 11 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
6.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 8 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-3
6.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
6.2%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Nate Terry, broken up by Rob ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
3.5%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Herb MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20DOWNS14 plays · 89 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+20
3.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 20 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-8
4.5%
Jason Driskel sacked by Shadow Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+29
4.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 29 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
5.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 17 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
5.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 9 yds to the ODU 9 OLDDOMINION Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21END OF GAME14 plays · 58 yds · 4:0498% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:57
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 45 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q3 11:02
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 6 yds for a TD, (D. Washington Run For Two-point Conversion)
-14.4
TD · Q3 0:51
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)
-12.8