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USM

Southern Miss 35 at Old Dominion 51

ODU
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:56 · Bailey Cate punt for 30 yds, downed at the SoMis 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense+2.9Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Pregame prior+7.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:58: Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +5.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:05: Keon Howard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +10.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:55: David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 5 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +12.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:19: David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 39 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +7.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:55: Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +5.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 14 at USM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35USM 4th & 11 at USM 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 32, up 14
    Close callPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:58USM 4th & 5 at ODU 45, down 21
    Close callPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:25USM 4th & 1 at USM 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.7%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:25USM 4th & 5 at ODU 47, down 21
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:28USM 4th & 2 at ODU 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:54ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 40, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:41USM 4th & 13 at ODU 22, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:06ODU 4th & 3 at USM 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:55USM 4th & 1 at ODU 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:55ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 34, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:42ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 35, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:05ODU 4th & 6 at USM 42, up 16
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:02ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:45ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:58ODU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:05USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:55ODU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:19ODU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:29ODU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:54USM Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:07USM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:55USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:53USM Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ODUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
58.0%
Zach Pascal run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
58.0%
David Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
58.0%
David Washington pass incomplete to Kesean Strong, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
58.0%
Bailey Cate punt for 39 yds, downed at the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
58.0%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+8
58.0%
Keon Howard run for 8 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.0%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
58.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+23
58.0%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 5 Keon Howard fumbled, forced by Sean Carter, recovered by ODU TJ Ricks , return for 23 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4759% → 60%
Q1 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
58.6%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.6%
David Washington pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Xavier ThigpenSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.9%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
59.5%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 28 Keon Howard fumbled, forced by TJ Ricks, recovered by ODU TJ RicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:0460% → 63%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
60.2%
Zach Pascal run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+22
60.2%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 22 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.6%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
61.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+1
62.0%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
62.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 11
OWN 32
-3
62.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds , Isaiah Harper returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
64.1%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 6 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
64.2%
Ray Lawry run for no gain to the ODU 30Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+2
63.9%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
63.8%
Bailey Cate punt for 30 yds, downed at the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
64.5%
Isaiah Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
64.8%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Brandon Addison return for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:0267% → 73%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
67.3%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for 28 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
67.3%
WASHINGTON, D. pass incomplete to FULGHAM, Travis, PENALTY USM pass interference (ARMSTRONG, C.) 13 yards to the USM2, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
67.3%
Zach Pascal run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.6%
Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
72.1%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
72.2%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+11
72.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Julian Allen for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
50
+2
71.7%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-2
71.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Julian Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 10
50
+5
72.3%
Keon Howard run for 5 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
72.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2176% → 76%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
76.0%
Ray Lawry run for 5 yds to the ODU 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
76.5%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+3
76.1%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 23
-5
75.6%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ODU 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
75.5%
Bailey Cate punt for 46 yds, downed at the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:5422% → 29%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
78.2%
Keon Howard run for 10 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.0%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
78.3%
Keon Howard run for 14 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
77.6%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+20
76.8%
Keon Howard run for 20 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
76.8%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 17Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+15
81.5%
Keon Howard run for 15 yds to the ODU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.0%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:0475% → 88%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
75.4%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
50
0
75.6%
David Washington pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
50
+1
75.5%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+15
74.9%
COX, Jeremy rush for loss of 1 yard to the 50 yardline, fumble forced by RUFF, Sherrod, fumble by COX, Jeremy recovered by ODU CASEY, Cullen at 50 yardline, PENALTY USM face mask (RILEY, Draper) 15 yards to the USM34, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
75.7%
David Washington pass complete to Kesean Strong for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+22
75.8%
David Washington run for 22 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.2%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 5 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:2315% → 14%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Aaron YoungSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
85.2%
Tez Parks run for 7 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
84.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+5
86.1%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
85.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 8
50
0
85.6%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Julian AllenSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 8
50
+3
86.2%
Keon Howard run for 3 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
86.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 39 yds, downed at the ODU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 2:0591% → 98%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
90.5%
Zach Pascal run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 6Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+9
90.5%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 9 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+46
90.5%
Ray Lawry run for 46 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
97.7%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 39 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
97.7%
Keon Howard run for 9 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-5
97.2%
Keon Howard sacked by Anthony Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+27
97.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 27 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:268% → 4%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+36
91.8%
Ito Smith run for 36 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
89.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
89.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+4
88.6%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+1
96.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:5399% → 99%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.5%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
98.5%
Jeremy Cox run for 2 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+67
98.9%
Jeremy Cox run for 67 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:301% → 1%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
98.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 14 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Devonta FosterSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.8%
Keon Howard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+17
98.8%
Keon Howard run for 17 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
98.8%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
98.6%
Ito Smith run for 15 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
98.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the ODU 16Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
98.6%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+11
98.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 11 yds to the ODU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
98.5%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the ODU 1Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Ray Lawry run for no gain to the ODU 35Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Ray Lawry run for no gain to the ODU 35Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.4%
Ray Lawry run for 5 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Bailey Cate punt for 42 yds, downed at the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 4:341% → 3%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.5%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+13
99.5%
Keon Howard run for 13 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tez Parks for 9 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+16
99.4%
Tez Parks run for 16 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to George PayneSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.4%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+22
99.4%
Keon Howard run for 22 yds to the ODU 19 Keon Howard fumbled, forced by TJ Ricks, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.3%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the ODU 18Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
99.4%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the ODU 17Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
99.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 8
OPP 17
-5
99.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Oliver Bates) to the ODU 22Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+20
99.1%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds to the ODU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5498% → 99%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
98.2%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 13 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
98.2%
David Washington sacked by C.J. Perry and Dylan Bradley for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+5
98.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 9
50
+6
99.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 2:362% → 7%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
98.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 18 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+54
98.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 54 yds to the ODU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.0%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
98.0%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the ODU 2Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.2%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the ODU 1Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
96.1%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 24Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
96.0%
David Washington pass incomplete to Travis FulghamSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+10
96.0%
David Washington run for 10 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
95.8%
Bailey Cate punt for 50 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for no gain to the SoMis 15 Allenzae Staggers fumbled, recovered by SoMis Allenzae StaggersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25SF
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:555% → 4%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-12
95.1%
Keon Howard sacked by Tim Ward for a loss of 12 yards to the SoMis 3Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 22
OWN 3
0
95.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Marquise Ricard, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 22
OWN 3
-1
95.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-1 Yards) to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 23
OWN 2
-2
96.3%
Keon Howard sacked by Bunmi Rotimi and Miles Fox for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
97.0%
Ray Lawry run for 4 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-2
97.0%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 33Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+2
97.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 2 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
96.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -29 yds · 1:274% → 0%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-18
96.3%
Keon Howard sacked by Miles Fox and Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 18 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 28
OWN 18
+2
96.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 26
OWN 20
+7
99.6%
Keon Howard sacked by Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 13 yards Keon Howard fumbled, recovered by ODU Rashaad Coward , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
97.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 55 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4798% → 99%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.4%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-2
98.4%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+3
98.5%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
99.2%
Bailey Cate punt for 29 yds, downed at the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 30FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
99.1%
Keon Howard sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 5 Keon Howard fumbled, recovered by ODU C.J. Bradshaw , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 7Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:55
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 5 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 10:05
Keon Howard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-10.5
TD · Q2 1:19
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 39 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com