Try the model
ODU

Old Dominion 31 at UTEP 21

UTEP
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:47 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:30: Hayden Plinke 3 Yd pass from Aaron Jones (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +13.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 6:24: Aaron Jones 5 Yd Run (Jay Mattox PAT blocked) — UTEP win probability +15.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:42: Melvin Vaughn 15 Yd pass from David Washington (Brad Davis Kick) — ODU win probability +18.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:15: Ray Lawry 40 Yd Run (Brad Davis Kick) — ODU win probability +11.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:05: Ray Lawry 1 Yd Run (Brad Davis Kick) — ODU win probability +12.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 1 at UTEP 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:16ODU 4th & 18 at UTEP 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 3 at UTEP 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:06UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:31ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 20, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:59UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:23ODU 4th & 17 at UTEP 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:29UTEP 4th & 1 at ODU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−1.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:19UTEP 4th & 3 at ODU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−2.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:15UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:59UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:21ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 24, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:11UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 35, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:11UTEP 4th & 10 at ODU 20, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:29ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:00ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:30UTEP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:24UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:42ODU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:15ODU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:05ODU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:49UTEP Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ODUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0065% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.0%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 7 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
35.0%
Zach Pascal run for 9 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
35.0%
Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
35.0%
David Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+22
35.0%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 22 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
35.0%
Jeremy Cox run for no gain to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+16
35.0%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 16 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
35.0%
Jeremy Cox run for 6 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-5
35.0%
David Washington run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+8
35.0%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 8 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+2
35.0%
Jeremy Cox run for 2 yds to the UTEP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.5%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 7 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3235% → 35%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
35.1%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+3
35.1%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+37
34.9%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted Sean Carter return for 22 yds to the UTEP 33 OLDDOMINION Penalty, personal foul (Miles Fox) to the UTEP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3FG
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:0766% → 65%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
34.2%
Ray Lawry run for no gain to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-14
34.2%
David Washington sacked by Dante Lovilette and Brian Madunezim for a loss of 14 yards to the UTEP 32Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 24
OPP 32
+6
34.7%
Ray Lawry run for 6 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
34.9%
Brad Davis 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
34.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 15 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
35.0%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
35.0%
Aaron Jones run for 7 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
35.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 16 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
35.8%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the ODU 48Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
35.7%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Kent TaylorSimilar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+3
35.4%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 3 yds Eddie Sinegal fumbled, forced by C.J. Bradshaw, recovered by ODU Oshane Ximines , return to the 50 yard line , return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2667% → 66%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
50
+12
33.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 12 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
33.1%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
33.1%
David Washington pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 3 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
33.1%
David Washington pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 3 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+22
33.7%
David Washington pass intercepted for a 1ST down Dashone Smith return for 7 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
33.4%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 39Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
33.4%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 7 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
33.5%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden PlinkeSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
32.9%
Alan Luna punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Darrell Brown at the ODU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
33.6%
Ray Lawry run for 7 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 3
OWN 18
0
33.4%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Kalon BeverlySimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+2
34.1%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the ODU 20Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
34.4%
Bailey Cate punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
32.1%
Walter Dawn run for 4 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
32.2%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Eddie SinegalSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-6
31.7%
Ryan Metz sacked by Pat Toal and Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
30.8%
Alan Luna punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
32.6%
Jeremy Cox run for 9 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+29
32.0%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 29 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
31.7%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
31.7%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-8
32.2%
David Washington sacked by Alvin Jones and Foster Dixson for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 17
OPP 38
0
33.5%
Bailey Cate punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 6:1430% → 44%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
30.0%
Aaron Jones run for 7 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
30.3%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the UTEP 16Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+4
29.5%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 4 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
30.3%
Aaron Jones run for 12 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
30.6%
Aaron Jones run for 14 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
31.6%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-2
32.1%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 49Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
31.0%
Ryan Metz run for 6 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
28.7%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
29.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 17 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
31.3%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+24
31.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 20 yds to the ODU 7 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, targeting (Rob Thompson) to the ODU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.3%
Hayden Plinke 3 Yd pass from Aaron Jones (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.2%
Ray Lawry run for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 8:3640% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.3%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
40.9%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
39.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Kent Taylor for 10 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
42.9%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
43.2%
Walter Dawn run for 7 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
43.8%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-1
44.0%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+11
43.4%
Ryan Metz run for 11 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
45.1%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+20
44.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Aaron Jones for 7 yds to the ODU 26 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (Andre Bernhard) to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
45.1%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-5
45.1%
JONES,Aaron rush over right guard for 9 yards to the ODU1 (CARTER, Sean), PENALTY UTEP illegal procedure (DANIELS,Jerome) 5 yards to the ODU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+10
45.0%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 10 yds to the ODU 5Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
60.0%
Aaron Jones 5 Yd Run (Jay Mattox PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4245% → 71%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
54.6%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 14 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
52.2%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
52.7%
Ray Lawry run for 12 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
50.2%
Ray Lawry run for 8 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+26
49.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 26 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
48.4%
David Washington pass incomplete to Travis FulghamSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
29.5%
Melvin Vaughn 15 Yd pass from David Washington (Brad Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1936% → 37%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
36.3%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Kent TaylorSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
35.7%
Kavika Johnson run for 16 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
38.8%
Aaron Jones run for 19 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
40.5%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the ODU 38Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+5
40.4%
Walter Dawn run for 5 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+1
40.2%
Kavika Johnson run for 1 yd to the ODU 32Similar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
37.1%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Eddie Sinegal, broken up by Brandon AddisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:5970% → 84%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
29.7%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 23 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
27.4%
Ray Lawry run for 5 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+40
15.9%
Ray Lawry 40 Yd Run (Brad Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.8%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
16.9%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
15.9%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Cole Freytag, broken up by Kane MiskelSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
15.4%
Alan Luna punt for 58 yds , Darrell Brown returns for 12 yds to the ODU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 1:0684% → 96%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
15.8%
BRICKHOUSE, J. rush up middle for no gain to the ODU27 (JONES,Alvin), PENALTY ODU illegal formation 5 yards to the ODU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+77
16.3%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 77 yds to the UTEP 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.8%
Ray Lawry 1 Yd Run (Brad Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
5.4%
Ryan Metz sacked by Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 18Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 18
OWN 18
+18
5.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 18 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
5.5%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Kent Taylor, broken up by Anthony WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-4
5.4%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
5.3%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Aaron JonesSimilar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
5.3%
Alan Luna punt for 57 yds, downed at the ODU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
3.7%
Ray Lawry run for 11 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
3.7%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
3.7%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Justin RogersSimilar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
3.8%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
3.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
4.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Aaron Jones for 1 yd to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
4.2%
Ryan Metz run for 2 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
4.3%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Kent Taylor, broken up by Aaron YoungSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+13
4.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Warren Redix for 13 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
4.6%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Terry Juniel for 5 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+7
4.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Terry Juniel for 7 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
4.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 20 yds to the ODU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
5.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 5 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-5
5.3%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Jerome Daniels) to the ODU 20Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
5.2%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Eddie SinegalSimilar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
5.0%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Eddie SinegalSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 10
OPP 20
0
4.7%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden PlinkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4998% → 98%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
2.3%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
2.3%
Ray Lawry run for no gain to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
2.4%
Ray Lawry run for no gain to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+39
1.6%
Bailey Cate punt for 46 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 39 yds to the ODU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:242% → 7%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
2.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Aaron Jones for 7 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+9
2.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 9 yds to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
2.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 4 yds to the ODU 9Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
7.1%
Cole Freytag 9 Yd pass from Ryan Metz (Ryan Metz Pass to Darrin Laufasa for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
50
+9
4.4%
Ray Lawry run for 9 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+20
4.2%
Ray Lawry run for 20 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-2
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:42
Melvin Vaughn 15 Yd pass from David Washington (Brad Davis Kick)
-18.9
TD · Q3 6:24
Aaron Jones 5 Yd Run (Jay Mattox PAT blocked)
+15
TD · Q2 0:30
Hayden Plinke 3 Yd pass from Aaron Jones (Jay Mattox Kick)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com