2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:37 · Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the ODU 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:41: Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +1.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:12: Ray Lawry run for 27 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +5.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:12: Marcus Cox run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +5.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Bentlee Critcher kickoff for 65 yds , Josh Marriner return for 28 yds to the ODU 28 — ODU win probability +1.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:50: Jalin Moore run for 10 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST down — APP win probability +2.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ODU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 15:00APP 4th & 2 at ODU 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.0%50% to convertField goal90.9%−0.193% to makePunt90.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:10ODU 4th & 5 at APP 16, down 7Close callWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.0%−<0.139% to convertField goal10.1%81% to makePunt9.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:04ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:49APP 4th & 3 at ODU 3, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call91.1%−0.493% to makePunt88.7%−2.8average punt
- Q2 14:42ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 23, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q2 13:14APP 4th & 5 at ODU 9, up 17Close callWent for it · 92.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.6%−0.136% to convertField goal92.7%89% to makePunt90.5%−2.1average punt
- Q2 5:05ODU 4th & 13 at ODU 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.4%−0.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.0%average punt
- Q2 0:38ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.1%average punt
- Q2 0:21APP 4th & 7 at APP 38, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.3%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%average punt
- Q3 14:53ODU 4th & 3 at APP 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.4%53% to convertField goal6.6%−0.851% to makePunt6.1%−1.3average punt
- Q3 14:53ODU 4th & 9 at APP 15, down 17Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.7%−0.729% to convertField goal7.4%83% to makePunt3.5%−3.9average punt
- Q3 8:50APP 4th & 10 at ODU 49, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q3 5:00ODU 4th & 5 at APP 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%41% to convertField goal5.1%−0.156% to makePunt4.1%−1.0average punt
- Q4 15:00APP 4th & 15 at APP 49, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q4 12:22ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 26, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q4 11:37APP 4th & 1 at ODU 46, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.2%70% to convertField goal95.8%−1.423% to makePunt96.3%−0.9average punt
- Q4 11:37APP 4th & 12 at ODU 47, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q4 8:28ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 39, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:11APP 4th & 2 at ODU 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%57% to convertField goal97.9%−0.354% to makePunt97.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:19APP 4th & 2 at ODU 21, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%57% to convertField goal98.1%−0.174% to makePunt97.1%−1.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:58APP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:41APP Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:12ODU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.1%97% to makeGo for two11.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:12APP Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:57APP Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAPPDrive 1TD9 plays · 72 yds · 4:0289% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+40
89.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 40 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-5
89.3%
Capel,Jaquil pass complete to Lamb,Taylor for 7 yards to the ODU5 (ROTIMI, Bunmi), PENALTY APP illegal formation 5 yards to the ODU17, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2DOWNS11 plays · 59 yds · 2:4811% → 12%
Q1 10:58
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
88.6%
David Washington pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 5 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
88.5%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by John LawSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 5
OPP 16
0
88.4%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Mondo WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD9 plays · 84 yds · 4:2289% → 91%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
88.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 15 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
88.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 4 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
88.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 5 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+30
88.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 30 yds to the ODU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3710% → 10%
Q1 2:04
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
89.8%
David Washington pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Okon GodwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5FG7 plays · 41 yds · 1:4991% → 92%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
90.7%
Lamb,Taylor pass incomplete to Capel,Jaquil, PENALTY ODU pass interference (DAVILA, Justice) 15 yards to the ODU29, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+21
90.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 21 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
91.4%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 1 yd to the ODU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8TD8 plays · 92 yds · 3:128% → 13%
Q2 11:24
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+18
92.0%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 18 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
93.3%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 7 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
93.4%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 26 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9INT7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
88.6%
Lamb,Taylor rush for 7 yards to the ODU34, PENALTY APP holding (Duffield,Levi) 2 yards to the ODU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+3
88.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 3 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
88.3%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Denzel Williams return for no gain to the ODU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+16
88.5%
Ray Lawry run for 1 yd to the ODU 18 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Eric Boggs) to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
88.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1289% → 94%
ODUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:345% → 6%
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
95.0%
David Washington pass incomplete OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0894% → 94%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
94.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 8 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15INT13 plays · 57 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
92.1%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 13 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+20
92.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 20 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+16
91.7%
David Washington pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 16 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-15
90.8%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Zach Pascal) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 19
OPP 25
+6
91.6%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 6 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+4
91.9%
David Washington pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 4 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 9
OPP 15
0
91.8%
David Washington pass intercepted, touchback. Clifton Duck return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
94.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 6 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-1
95.1%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Anthony Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-2
94.9%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Anthony Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 57 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
94.9%
WASHINGTON, D. pass incomplete to DUHART, J., PENALTY APP roughing passer (Sims,Antonious) 15 yards to the ODU28, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
94.3%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 7 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
94.3%
David Washington pass complete to Joey Verhaegh for 8 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+18
94.0%
Josh Marriner run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Caleb Fuller) to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
93.8%
David Washington pass complete to Josh Marriner for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 1:0996% → 96%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
96.4%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Anthony Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
50
-1
96.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 49
+9
95.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 36 yds , Darrell Brown returns for 9 yds to the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 12:22
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
96.2%
David Washington pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Mondo WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-5
96.2%
David Washington sacked by Antonious Sims for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 26 OLDDOMINION Penalty, intentional grounding (David Washington) to the ODU 26Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
96.5%
Bailey Cate punt for 34 yds , Jaquil Capel returns for no gain to the AppSt 45 Jaquil Capel fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
ODUDrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 29 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
97.1%
David Washington pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 5 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
97.1%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 3 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
97.0%
David Washington pass complete to Josh Marriner for 8 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
96.9%
David Washington pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD14 plays · 39 yds · 5:1598% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23END OF GAME6 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
Tyreim Blake sacked by Antonious Sims for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 24Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
99.6%
Tyreim Blake pass complete to Eri'Reon Hayes for 17 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Tyreim Blake pass incomplete to Josh Marriner, broken up by Devin PapenheimSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.6%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to DAVILA, Justice (Williams,Mondo), PENALTY APP roughing passer (Sims,Antonious) 15 yards to the APP44, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
99.6%
Tyreim Blake sacked by Dezmin Reed for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:12
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 8:12
Ray Lawry run for 27 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)
-5
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:50
Jalin Moore run for 10 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST down
+2.9