2016 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2016 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadHAMP aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreHAMP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:37 · Dwayne Garrett run for no gain to the Hampt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:58: David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 26 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK) — ODU win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Shakim Alonzo 4 Yd pass from Jaylian Williamson (Anthony Prevost Kick) — HAMP win probability +3.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: HAMP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:47: Dwayne Garrett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Brown KICK) — HAMP win probability +4.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: HAMP has the ball).
- SAFETY · Q3 6:19: Christian Faber-Kinney run for a loss of 28 yards for a SAFETY — ODU win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HAMP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:30: Jayl Williamson pass intercepted for a TD Aaron Young return for 15 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK) — ODU win probability +3.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HAMP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9HAMP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 10:13HAMP 4th & 4 at HAMP 29, down 7Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.1%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:13ODU 4th & 1 at HAMP 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.9%59% to convertField goal94.7%−0.294% to makePunt94.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 7:37HAMP 4th & 1 at HAMP 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:35ODU 4th & 7 at HAMP 41, up 7Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it94.0%37% to convertField goal93.9%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call93.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:22HAMP 4th & 19 at HAMP 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q2 12:18ODU 4th & 7 at HAMP 34, up 14Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.7%37% to convertField goal94.6%−0.147% to makePuntTheir call94.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:44HAMP 4th & 6 at HAMP 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 9:14ODU 4th & 2 at HAMP 45, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.5%57% to convertField goal93.7%−0.825% to makePunt94.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:51HAMP 4th & 16 at HAMP 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 1:38ODU 4th & 4 at HAMP 4, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call97.3%−0.193% to makePunt95.7%−1.8average punt
- Q2 1:38HAMP 4th & 10 at HAMP 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 0:00HAMP 4th & 4 at ODU 4, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%40% to convertField goal2.9%−0.293% to makePunt1.3%−1.8average punt
- Q3 8:42ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 39, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snapGo for it90.5%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.9%average punt
- Q3 6:06ODU 4th & 2 at HAMP 48, up 12Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snapGo for it93.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:24HAMP 4th & 8 at HAMP 23, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q4 14:48HAMP 4th & 3 at HAMP 25, down 26Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:33ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 49, up 26Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:05HAMP 4th & 8 at HAMP 29, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:53ODU 4th & 1 at HAMP 8, up 33Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%70% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−0.290% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7HAMP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 14:37ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:37HAMP Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.3%97% to makeGo for two5.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:39ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:36ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:58ODU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00HAMP Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.1%97% to makeGo for two5.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:47HAMP Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.3%97% to makeGo for two8.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:30ODU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53ODU Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:13ODU Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1TD2 plays · 59 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
96.1%
David Washington pass complete to Ray Lawry for 59 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 2TD7 plays · 71 yds · 2:524% → 5%
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+47
96.0%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 47 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD4 plays · 59 yds · 0:5196% → 96%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
95.5%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 28 yds to the Hampt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
ODUDrive 5DOWNS7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
HAMPDrive 6DOWNS9 plays · 43 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+14
95.2%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 14 yds to the Hampt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+17
95.2%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Shakim Alonzo for 17 yds to the Hampt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
95.1%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Shakim Alonzo for 5 yds to the Hampt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
HAMPDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
94.4%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Shakim Alonzo for 7 yds to the Hampt 16Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+5
94.4%
BELL,Ronald rush for no gain to the HAM16 (WILSON, Anthony), PENALTY ODU offside defense 5 yards to the HAM21, 1ST DOWN HAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
94.4%
WILLIAMSON,Jayl pass incomplete to ALONZO,Shakim, PENALTY ODU personal foul (COWARD, Rashaad) 15 yards to the HAM36, 1ST DOWN HAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.3%
Jayl Williamson run for no gain to the Hampt 27 Jayl Williamson fumbled, recovered by Hampt Yahkee JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 19
OWN 27
0
94.5%
Christian Faber-Kinney punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9TD6 plays · 60 yds · 1:5894% → 96%
Q2 13:36
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+10
95.7%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 10FUMBLE4 plays · 11 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
95.1%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Twarn Mixson for 6 yds to the Hampt 32Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
95.1%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 6 yds to the Hampt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
95.1%
Yahkee Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hampt 37 Yahkee Johnson fumbled, forced by Bunmi Rotimi, recovered by ODU Marvin BranchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q2 12:18
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
95.4%
Bailey Cate punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Twarn Mixson at the Hampt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:005% → 5%
ODUDrive 13TD10 plays · 53 yds · 4:1696% → 98%
Q2 9:14
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+4
95.3%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 4 yds to the Hampt 45Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+4
95.2%
David Washington pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 4 yds to the Hampt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+12
95.4%
David Washington pass complete to Zach Pascal for 12 yds to the Hampt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+26
97.8%
David Washington pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 26 yds for a TD, (Chris Kirtley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
ODUDrive 15FG9 plays · 53 yds · 1:4098% → 98%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
98.0%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Zach Pascal for 9 yds to the Hampt 48Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
98.1%
Shuler Bentley pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Chaka DiarrassoubaSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+34
98.0%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 34 yds to the Hampt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
98.1%
Shuler Bentley pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 6 yds to the Hampt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 2%
ODUDrive 17FUMBLE5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
98.2%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Treshawn Council for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line Blake LaRussa fumbled, recovered by Hampt Devin Vandyke , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 18TD13 plays · 50 yds · 0:333% → 7%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
50
+28
97.4%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
97.1%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, offside defense (Bunmi Rotimi) to the ODU 17Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+11
97.3%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 11 yds to the ODU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.2%
Shakim Alonzo 4 Yd pass from Jaylian Williamson (Anthony Prevost Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 19TD15 plays · 72 yds · 6:075% → 9%
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+7
95.2%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 7 yds to the Hampt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+12
95.5%
Twarn Mixson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 12 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+26
95.3%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 26 yds to the ODU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
94.8%
Jayl Williamson pass incomplete to Rashawn Proctor, broken up by TJ RicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-15
92.3%
WASHINGTON, D. pass incomplete to PASCAL, Zach, PENALTY ODU pass interference (PASCAL, Zach) 15 yards to the ODU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
92.2%
David Washington pass incomplete to Jeremy Cox, broken up by Alvester ColemanSimilar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
91.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Twarn Mixson at the Hampt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 21SF5 plays · -23 yds · 1:278% → 6%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 0
OWN 20
+15
94.0%
Christian Faber-Kinney punt for 65 yds , Marques Little returns for 15 yds to the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
HAMPDrive 23INT TD3 plays · -2 yds · 1:166% → 3%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
94.3%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Twarn Mixson for 5 yds to the Hampt 10Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 5
OWN 10
-7
94.1%
Jayl Williamson sacked by Tim Ward for a loss of 7 yards to the Hampt 3 HAMPTON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+15
97.1%
Jayl Williamson pass intercepted for a TD Aaron Young return for 15 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Jayl Williamson pass incomplete to Twarn Mixson, broken up by Justice DavilaSimilar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
96.9%
Jayl Williamson pass complete to Jack Willenbrock for 2 yds to the Hampt 23Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+22
97.0%
Christian Faber-Kinney punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 47 , Darrell Brown returns for 22 yds to the ODU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25TD5 plays · 53 yds · 1:2298% → 100%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.7%
David Washington pass complete to Joey Verhaegh for 32 yds for a TD, (Joe Tillman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:48
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Christian Faber-Kinney punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
HAMPDrive 28FUMBLE5 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:04
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+17
99.8%
Jayl Williamson sacked by Daniel Appouh for a loss of 9 yards to the Hampt 19 Jayl Williamson fumbled, recovered by ODU Marvin Branch , return for 0 yards , return for 17 yds to the Hampt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 29TD2 plays · 19 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
HAMPDrive 30PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Brandon Cox pass complete to Ronald Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the Hampt 29Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+39
99.9%
Christian Faber-Kinney punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Hampt 27 , Isaiah Harper returns for 39 yds to the OLDDOMNION 32 HAMPTON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Christian Faber-Kinney) to the Hampt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 31MISSED FG6 plays · 19 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
HAMPDrive 32FUMBLE10 plays · 49 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
100.0%
Brandon Cox sacked by Daniel Appouh for a loss of 3 yards to the Hampt 17Similar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
100.0%
Brandon Cox pass complete to Ronald Bell for 9 yds to the Hampt 44Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-1
99.9%
Brandon Cox pass complete to Ronald Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 37Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Brandon Cox run for no gain to the ODU 31 Brandon Cox fumbled, recovered by ODU Christian ByrumSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 33END OF GAME1 play · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:47
Dwayne Garrett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Brown KICK)
-4.5
TD · Q2 0:00
Shakim Alonzo 4 Yd pass from Jaylian Williamson (Anthony Prevost Kick)
-3.1
TD · Q3 2:30
Jayl Williamson pass intercepted for a TD Aaron Young return for 15 yds for a TD, (Brad Davis KICK)
+3