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BALL

Ball State 31 at Georgia State 21

GAST
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2016 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:45 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 49 yds , Penny Hart returns for no gain to the GeoSt 26 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the GeoSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Pregame prior−15.7Home team on offense+2.5Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 14 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +6.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:10: James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +12.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:43: Teddy Williamson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +18.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:46: Darian Green run for 8 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +9.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:24: Aaron Winchester run for 13 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +7.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:06GAST 4th & 2 at BALL 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:02BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20BALL 4th & 6 at GAST 31, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:45BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:01GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:06GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:34BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:41GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:28BALL 4th & 3 at GAST 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:10BALL 4th & 1 at GAST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:53GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:25BALL 4th & 4 at GAST 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−9.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:19GAST 4th & 10 at BALL 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−2.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at GAST 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−5.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−20.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:44GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:48GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:26BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:43BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:46BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:24GAST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1INT TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1270% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
29.8%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to HOGUE, Jordan for 26 yards to the GSU32 (Smith, Jerome;Shaw, Michael), PENALTY BALL holding (MILLER, Drake) 10 yards to the BALL32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
29.8%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+9
29.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 9 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+48
30.7%
Riley Neal pass intercepted for a TD Jerome Smith return for 48 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.7%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
30.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
30.7%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Jerome Smith return for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3732% → 33%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
31.8%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
31.7%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+11
31.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 11 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 2
OPP 24
-2
32.9%
Emiere Scaife run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
32.7%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
32.6%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
32.7%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
32.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
33.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 5 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
33.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+7
33.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 7 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
33.9%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35 Glenn Smith fumbled, forced by Anthony Winbush, recovered by BalSt Anthony WinbushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5266% → 65%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
34.0%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
34.1%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
34.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
35.4%
Morgan Hagee 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
35.8%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Corey Hall return for 11 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4465% → 67%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
35.0%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
34.6%
Darian Green run for no gain to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
35.0%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
34.7%
Teddy Williamson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
34.6%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
35.0%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
34.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+15
34.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 15 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.9%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:2535% → 43%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
35.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 9 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
36.0%
Kendrick Dorn run for no gain to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
35.6%
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
50
+6
36.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 6 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
36.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn Smith, broken up by Sean WigginsSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
35.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
36.2%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-5
36.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+16
35.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kyler Neal for 16 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
36.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 24 yds to the BalSt 3 GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Penny Hart) to the BalSt 18Similar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 1
OPP 18
+4
36.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 4 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
43.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 14 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
41.3%
Teddy Williamson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
40.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Darian GreenSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-5
41.2%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
42.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
42.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 49 yds , Penny Hart returns for no gain to the GeoSt 26 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
42.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (Conner Manning) to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+4
42.2%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Rucker, Keith, PENALTY BALL pass interference (RYAN, Zack) 4 yards to the GSU14, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
42.2%
Conner Manning run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 12 Conner Manning fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Conner ManningSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+9
42.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 9 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
41.6%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 3
OWN 21
+15
41.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 55 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 15 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
42.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
41.7%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
41.8%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
43.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
44.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
44.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
44.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 5 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
45.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-7
44.9%
Conner Manning sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+6
43.8%
Kendrick Dorn run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+12
43.5%
Brandon Wright punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 39 , Aaron Hepp returns for 12 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
45.5%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
44.8%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
45.1%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
46.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Glenn Smith at the GeoSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
48.7%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
48.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd Boyd GEORGIA ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+5
47.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 5 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
46.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16TD
15 plays · 44 yds · 6:1854% → 63%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
46.3%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
46.4%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
46.6%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+4
47.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
45.1%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
45.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 8 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+2
46.0%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
44.7%
Riley Neal sacked by Alonzo McGee for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 16
OPP 29
0
46.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Darian GreenSimilar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 16
OPP 29
+20
48.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 20 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
44.7%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
44.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
46.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 3 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.1%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
43.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
44.3%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
44.4%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+15
43.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 15 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
46.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
46.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
44.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
42.6%
Brandon Wright punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:0759% → 63%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
41.2%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
40.7%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Vinnie Palazeti) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+4
41.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Danny Pinter for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+14
41.4%
Darian Green run for 14 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
38.7%
James Gilbert run for 23 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
37.1%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+4
38.5%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-1
39.9%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
36.6%
Morgan Hagee 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
40.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+7
42.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 7 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
42.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 5 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
43.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
43.9%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
41.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
39.6%
Brandon Wright punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 79 yds · 6:2962% → 63%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
37.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 21 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
35.0%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
35.3%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+9
35.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
34.3%
Darian Green run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+6
34.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
33.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 4 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
33.0%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+7
34.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 7 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
33.0%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+9
33.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 9 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
33.0%
GREEN, Darian rush for 2 yards to the GSU5 (Ringer, Kaleb), PENALTY GSU offside defense (Cheridor, M.) 2 yards to the GSU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
33.0%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.7%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.3%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Sam Brunner, broken up by Bobby BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
40.8%
Aaron Winchester run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+2
40.6%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+10
39.0%
Aaron Winchester run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
41.5%
Aaron Winchester run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
42.2%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (Corey Hall) to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
45.2%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
45.6%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
42.1%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
41.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:3267% → 88%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
33.2%
Darian Green run for 17 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
32.2%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+46
30.1%
Riley Neal run for 46 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
11.6%
Teddy Williamson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
14.9%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
14.4%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-2
13.9%
Aaron Winchester run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:4788% → 98%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
11.6%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
11.4%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
11.3%
James Gilbert run for 23 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
11.1%
Darian Green run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.1%
Darian Green run for 8 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:153% → 10%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
2.8%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Penny Hart for 18 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
2.8%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
2.9%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+21
2.9%
Aaron Winchester run for 21 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
3.4%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Robert Davis for 2 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
3.4%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Ari Werts for 2 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+13
3.3%
Glenn Smith run for 13 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
10.4%
Aaron Winchester run for 13 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:1395% → 96%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
5.1%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
4.2%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
4.1%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+43
4.3%
James Gilbert run for 43 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:43
Teddy Williamson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-18.5
TD · Q2 0:10
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q4 4:46
Darian Green run for 8 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com