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HAW

Hawai'i 34 at Air Force 27

AF
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.7AF 98.8%Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds, faircatch by John Ursua at the Hawa 22AWAY 3 - HOME 24 · Q4 11:51
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:51 · Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTPlay 128Pregame prior+8.2Home team on offense+29.5Score differential+22.2Garbage-time factor+12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:45: Steve Brosy punt for 53 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 16 — AF win probability +2.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:21: Nate Romine run for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 11 Nate Romine fumbled, forced by Jahlani Tavai, recovered by Hawa Meffy Koloamatangi — AF win probability +4.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:02: Rigoberto Sanchez 35 Yd Field Goal — AF win probability +2.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:51: Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 22 — AF win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:49: Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 13 — HAW win probability +3.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:25HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:45AF 4th & 3 at AF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:22AF 4th & 1 at HAW 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−1.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:29HAW 4th & 7 at AF 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:29AF 4th & 9 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:47HAW 4th & 17 at HAW 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:40AF 4th & 6 at HAW 30, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:17AF 4th & 5 at HAW 25, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:17HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:21AF 4th & 22 at AF 18, up 11
    Numbers favored punt by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:02HAW 4th & 16 at AF 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:02AF 4th & 1 at HAW 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−2.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:51AF 4th & 5 at AF 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:49HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:3514% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 4 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
85.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 9 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
85.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 7 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
85.2%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Ammon Barker, broken up by Lochlin DeeksSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
85.2%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
85.3%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:0085% → 87%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
85.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
85.1%
Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-1
85.1%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
87.2%
Steve Brosy punt for 53 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3INT
8 plays · 56 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
87.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+3
87.0%
Dru Brown run for 3 yds to the Hawa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
87.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 20 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.9%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
86.9%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Haji Dunn Jr.Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-15
87.0%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Marcus Kemp) to the Hawa 31Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 25
OWN 31
-6
87.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Paul Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 31
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1988% → 88%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
88.0%
Timothy McVey run for 17 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
88.4%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
50
+4
88.5%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
88.4%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-1
87.7%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:4713% → 13%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
86.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 29 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
86.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Makoa Camanse-Stevens for 3 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
86.0%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+9
86.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 9 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
86.0%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Metuisela 'UngaSimilar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
86.0%
Dru Brown run for 3 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
86.8%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
87.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6DOWNS
12 plays · 25 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.7%
Tyler Williams run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
88.6%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (Rojesterman Farris II) to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
89.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
89.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
88.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
89.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
89.2%
Tyler Williams run for 4 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-5
89.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal shift (Timothy McVey) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 9
50
0
88.9%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 9
50
0
88.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 49 yds, downed at the Hawa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7FG
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:0011% → 13%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+41
88.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 41 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
87.9%
Dru Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 37 Dru Brown fumbled, recovered by Hawa Dru BrownSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
88.4%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-2
88.5%
Dru Brown sacked by Santo Coppola and Claude Alexander III for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
87.5%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 48 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for no gain to the AFA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
87.0%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 14Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 13
OWN 14
-2
86.9%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+16
86.7%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rojesterman Farris II) to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.1%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
87.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-1
86.9%
D.J. Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 36 D.J. Johnson fumbled, forced by Kory Rasmussen, recovered by Hawa Damien PackerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1714% → 13%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
86.5%
Paul Harris run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-1
85.8%
Paul Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+16
86.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 16 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
85.7%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Ammon BarkerSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
85.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 13 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.7%
Steven Lakalaka run for 3 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.7%
Steven Lakalaka run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.6%
Steven Lakalaka 1 Yd Run (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2087% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
86.9%
Nate Romine run for 41 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
87.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
87.7%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-3
87.3%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
86.6%
Luke Strebel 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12Uncategorized
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
85.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+27
85.5%
Dru Brown pass intercepted Jesse Washington return for 27 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:1788% → 87%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
88.1%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+8
88.1%
Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
88.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-1
88.1%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 27Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+2
87.6%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
87.3%
Luke Strebel 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14INT
10 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.7%
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
86.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 10 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.2%
Paul Harris run for 4 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
85.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 10 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.0%
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
85.0%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-5
85.6%
HAWAII Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 48Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
86.8%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
87.4%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0088% → 91%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
87.6%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
88.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
87.7%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
87.9%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-15
87.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (Jake Barnhorst) to the AFA 18Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 22
OWN 18
0
86.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 22
OWN 18
-9
91.0%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 11 Nate Romine fumbled, forced by Jahlani Tavai, recovered by Hawa Meffy KoloamatangiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 23 yds · 2:1112% → 8%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
88.3%
Paul Harris run for 1 yd to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+3
88.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 3 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-10
89.2%
Dru Brown sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+35
91.7%
Rigoberto Sanchez 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FUMBLE
13 plays · -9 yds · 3:2994% → 95%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
93.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 20 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.4%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
94.2%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
94.1%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
93.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
94.4%
Nate Romine run for 12 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
94.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
95.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+6
94.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
95.0%
Ronald Cleveland run for 5 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+11
95.0%
Shayne Davern run for 11 yds to the Hawa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.2%
Shayne Davern 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18FG
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:427% → 8%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
92.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 23 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
91.9%
Dru Brown run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
91.3%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
91.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 4 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
91.9%
John Ursua 40 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:0095% → 99%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
95.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.1%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:561% → 4%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
98.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+11
98.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 11 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the Hawa 41Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+3
99.0%
Dru Brown run for 3 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
95.6%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
24 plays · 5 yds · 8:1896% → 99%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
96.3%
Shayne Davern run for 12 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.4%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
96.5%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
96.5%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
96.7%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
96.7%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
96.7%
Parker Wilson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
96.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
96.8%
Parker Wilson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
96.7%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
96.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
96.8%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
96.8%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Hawa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
98.3%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
98.4%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the Hawa 20Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+6
98.8%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
98.8%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the Hawa 12Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-3
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 15Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+32
99.4%
Luke Strebel 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT TD
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
97.0%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
96.9%
Tyler Williams run for 6 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
93.8%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
95.8%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the Hawa 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
95.8%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the Hawa 5Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
93.6%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
95.7%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.5%
N. Romine run for 5 yds for a TD, (L. Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23MISSED FG TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:002% → 3%
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
97.6%
Marcus Kemp 13 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
97.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.2%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
97.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 15:003% → 2%
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
97.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the AFA 13Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.7%
Marcus Kemp 25 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 11
0
99.3%
N. Romine pass intercepted by Rogers.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
99.5%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.5%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
99.5%
Shayne Davern run for no gain to the Hawa 11Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
99.4%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 11
0
99.3%
Nate Romine pass intercepted Jalen Rogers return for no gain to the Hawa 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-99.3
FG · Q3 6:21
Nate Romine run for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 11 Nate Romine fumbled, forced by Jahlani Tavai, recovered by Hawa Meffy Koloamatangi
+4.2
TD · Q4 11:51
Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 22
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com