Try the model
NEV

Nevada 17 at Hawai'i 38

HAW
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Aloha Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Alex Boy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:23: Rigoberto Sanchez 27 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +2.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:43: Steven Lakalaka run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +7.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:48: Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 16 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +13.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:48: John Ursua run for 5 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +14.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:10: Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 8 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +5.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 5 at HAW 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:23HAW 4th & 10 at NEV 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:07HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 21 at NEV 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:28NEV 4th & 5 at HAW 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:04NEV 4th & 12 at HAW 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:07NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:59NEV 4th & 7 at HAW 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:02NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:09HAW 4th & 24 at HAW 24, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:02HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:43HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:48HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:48HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:10HAW Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:02HAW Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:09NEV Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:02NEV Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 66 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.9%
Tyler Stewart run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
40.9%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+55
40.9%
James Butler run for 55 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
40.9%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jeremy Macauley) to the Hawa 19Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+6
40.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 6 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
40.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the Hawa 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+8
40.9%
Ty Gangi run for 8 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
40.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2FG
13 plays · 81 yds · 6:0642% → 45%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
42.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+22
42.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 22 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
42.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 12 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
42.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 9 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+18
42.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 18 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
42.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 20 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
42.7%
HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Dejon Allen) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+4
42.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+3
42.6%
Dru Brown run for 3 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-10
42.4%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (John Wa'a) to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
+5
42.3%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside (Patrick Choudja) to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+8
42.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Makoa Camanse-Stevens for 8 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
45.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
45.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 3 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
45.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 4 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 3
OWN 25
-11
45.4%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Malachi Mageo for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 14Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 14
OWN 14
0
46.1%
Alex Boy punt for 50 yds, downed at the Hawa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
46.1%
Dru Brown sacked by Jordan Silva for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 30Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+9
45.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 9 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
45.7%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+3
45.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 50 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 3 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 1:3754% → 54%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
46.5%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
46.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+9
47.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 9 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.4%
James Butler run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.5%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
46.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+19
47.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 19 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
45.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 4 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 44
0
47.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 44
0
47.8%
Alex Boy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
45.4%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the Hawa 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-15
45.6%
NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Austin Corbett) to the Nevad 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:0547% → 58%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
47.4%
Dru Brown run for 17 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
47.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+11
47.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 11 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
48.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 15 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
50.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
50.1%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+10
49.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 10 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
50.6%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+26
50.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 26 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.0%
Steven Lakalaka run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 6:1543% → 41%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
56.1%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
56.3%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
55.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 6 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
55.3%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
55.7%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
53.5%
HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Travis Wilson) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+9
60.1%
Tyler Stewart run for 9 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
58.9%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+7
58.5%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
57.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Austin Carrow for 11 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
57.5%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Hawa 14Similar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 5
OPP 14
-1
57.5%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 15Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
57.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the Hawa 14Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
58.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Trayvon HendersonSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
58.9%
Brent Zuzo 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 1:3561% → 78%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
60.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the Hawa 23 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Leo Koloamatangi) to the Hawa 13Similar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 18
OWN 13
+11
60.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 11 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+15
60.6%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Dameon Baber) to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
62.0%
Dru Brown run for 5 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
62.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 8 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+32
63.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Makoa Camanse-Stevens for 32 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
78.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 16 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:3329% → 25%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
70.8%
HAWAII Penalty, roughing passer (Makani Kema-Kaleiwahea) to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
69.2%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Meffy Koloamatangi for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
72.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
74.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
74.8%
Brent Zuzo 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
78.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 27 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1275% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
74.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 59 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
75.8%
Steven Lakalaka run for 5 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
75.8%
Steven Lakalaka run for 6 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.3%
John Ursua run for 5 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 19 yds · 0:3512% → 12%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
87.7%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
86.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+3
87.0%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
86.9%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+6
86.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
86.9%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
86.8%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-15
86.1%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 21
OWN 34
-10
87.8%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Keala Santiago for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 31
OWN 24
+17
88.0%
Tyler Stewart run for 17 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
88.0%
Alex Boy punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD
6 plays · 95 yds · 2:4893% → 99%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+44
92.6%
Paul Harris run for 44 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
93.3%
Paul Harris run for 15 yds to the HAWAII 36 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kendall Johnson) to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
93.5%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 8 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+3
93.4%
Paul Harris run for 3 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
93.5%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 8 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.0%
James Butler run for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
98.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 1
50
+6
98.7%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.8%
James Butler run for no gain to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to James Butler, broken up by Jahlani TavaiSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 3 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
99.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 3:0799% → 100%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.4%
Paul Harris run for 6 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+38
99.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 38 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
99.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Kalakaua Timoteo for 13 yds Kalakaua Timoteo fumbled, forced by Malik Reed, recovered by Hawa John Wa'a for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
Steven Lakalaka run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Kaiwi Chung run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Dejaun ButlerSimilar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Alex Boy punt for 46 yds, downed at the Hawa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:21100% → 100%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.6%
Paul Harris run for no gain to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
99.6%
Paul Harris run for 15 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.7%
Dru Brown run for 4 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
99.7%
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
50
+15
99.6%
Dru Brown run for 15 yds to the Nevad 35 Dru Brown fumbled, forced by Malik Reed, recovered by Nevad Asauni RufusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
99.7%
James Butler run for 25 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 7 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
99.7%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
99.7%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Hawa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+15
99.7%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Dejaun Butler) to the Hawa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
99.7%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 9Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 9 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 8 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
99.8%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Leo Koloamatangi) to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+10
99.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 10 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
99.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 36Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-5
99.8%
HAWAII Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 17
OWN 31
-7
99.8%
Dru Brown sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 24Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 24
OWN 24
+8
99.8%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 53 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 8 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:110% → 1%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 29 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Jerico Richardson) to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+31
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 31 yds to the Hawa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Dejon Allen) to the Hawa 20Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the Hawa 21Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
99.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
99.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 7 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+14
99.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 14 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+10
99.3%
Tyler Stewart run for 10 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-12
99.3%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Trayvon Henderson for a loss of 12 yards to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 22
OWN 42
+14
99.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 14 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+7
99.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 7 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:48
John Ursua run for 5 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q2 0:48
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 16 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q2 8:43
Steven Lakalaka run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com