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ARST

Arkansas State 20 at Utah State 34

USU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2016 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.2USU 77.1%Brock Warren 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 4:51
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:51 · Brock Warren 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+21.9Home team on offense+2.6Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:04: Damion Hobbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +4.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:01: Tonny Lindsey run for 28 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +4.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:18: Warren Wand run for 4 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +4.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:18: Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 44 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +8.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:34: Brock Warren 30 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +5.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USU 4th & 10 at USU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:22ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:23USU 4th & 16 at ARST 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:29ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:51USU 4th & 10 at ARST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:01ARST 4th & 11 at USU 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:43USU 4th & 2 at USU 37, up 24
    Close callPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:50ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 42, down 24
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:39USU 4th & 14 at USU 42, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:23ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 15, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:59USU 4th & 1 at ARST 43, up 24
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:09USU 4th & 25 at USU 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:34USU 4th & 13 at ARST 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−6.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:05ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:40USU 4th & 20 at USU 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−4.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:29ARST 4th & 6 at USU 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−5.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:20USU 4th & 9 at USU 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:28ARST 4th & 5 at USU 5, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%−2.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−6.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:29USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:04USU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:01USU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:18ARST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:18ARST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:29USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
76.1%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
76.1%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
76.1%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+48
76.1%
Aaron Dalton punt for 38 yds ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
76.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Blake Mack for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
76.0%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+8
76.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Blake Mack for 8 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
76.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-2
76.0%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 9 Chad Voytik fumbled, recovered by UthSt Siua Taufa , return for 10 yds to the ArkSt 9 , return for 7 yds to the ArkSt 45 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (-9 Yards) to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:0276% → 77%
Q1 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
75.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
75.9%
Damion Hobbs run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 4 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
76.3%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
76.3%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 10
OWN 8
-4
76.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 14
OWN 4
0
76.4%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 14
OWN 4
+5
76.5%
Damon Foncham punt for 38 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
76.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-7
76.7%
Kent Myers sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 16
OPP 43
0
76.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
76.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.4%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Kendall Sanders, broken up by Daniel GraySimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
76.5%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
76.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
76.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:1577% → 77%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
76.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
77.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
77.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 13 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
77.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
77.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
76.9%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
77.1%
Brock Warren 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
76.7%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-2
76.8%
Chad Voytik sacked by Derek Larsen and Travis Seefeldt for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 10
OPP 0
+34
76.0%
Chad Voytik pass intercepted Jontrell Rocquemore return for 19 yds to the ArkSt 24 UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:2278% → 83%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
78.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+19
78.1%
Kent Myers run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
78.1%
Kent Myers run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 1 Kent Myers fumbled, forced by Chris Odom,Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.0%
Damion Hobbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:0418% → 16%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.8%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.8%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 11 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for no gain to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-4
81.7%
Justice Hansen sacked by Justus Te'i and Ricky Ali'ifua for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
82.0%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
83.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:5284% → 89%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
83.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 16 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
84.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+15
84.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
84.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 12 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
89.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 28 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
87.9%
Johnston White run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+33
87.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 33 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
87.3%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-5
87.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 14
50
-5
87.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 19
OWN 45
-3
87.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 22
OWN 42
+11
88.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 11 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
87.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
90.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 7Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+7
90.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for 7 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+15
90.3%
MYERS, Kent pass incomplete to HORNE, Landon (Odom, Chris), PENALTY ASU roughing passer 15 yards to the USU29, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
90.5%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
90.6%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+1
90.5%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
90.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
90.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 14 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
90.2%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
90.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+7
90.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 7 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
90.2%
Damon Foncham punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1693% → 93%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
92.2%
Kent Myers run for 19 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
92.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-5
92.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
93.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete, broken up by Chris OdomSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
93.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 45 yds, downed at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
92.0%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-5
91.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
91.9%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
92.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendall SandersSimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
92.1%
Damon Foncham punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5895% → 95%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.7%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
94.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+11
94.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Aaron Dalton punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
92.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 18
OWN 10
+9
92.8%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:427% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.4%
Hansen, Justice pass intercepted by LEAVITT, Dallin at the ASU41, LEAVITT, Dallin return to the ASU34, PENALTY USU pass interference 15 yards to the ASU40, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.1%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+18
93.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 18 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
92.9%
Justice Hansen sacked by Brock Carmen for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 44
-5
93.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+5
93.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+9
93.5%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Mack, Blake (LEAVITT, Dallin), PENALTY USU pass interference 9 yards to the USU35, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
92.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 27 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
92.3%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.8%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-10
91.8%
MYERS, Kent pass complete to TARVER, R. for 7 yards to the ASU49, out-of-bounds (Wagner, Nehemia), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the USU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+3
91.3%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 17
OWN 37
-8
91.2%
Kent Myers sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 25
OWN 29
0
90.5%
Aaron Dalton punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1110% → 19%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
90.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 33 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
89.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Chase Christiansen for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+44
81.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 44 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:4083% → 89%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
82.5%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
82.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Jaren Colston-GreenSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+5
81.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 5 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
82.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+68
82.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 68 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
84.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad Lewis, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
84.6%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
83.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Braelon RobertsSimilar
Q3 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
89.3%
Brock Warren 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:2912% → 10%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
88.0%
Justice Hansen run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
88.0%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
88.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, broken up by Devin CentersSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-2
89.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
89.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
91.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
91.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+7
91.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 7 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.9%
Justen Hervey run for no gain to the UthSt 41Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
91.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Braelon Roberts, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-10
91.4%
Kent Myers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Kyle Wilson for a loss of 10 yards to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
90.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25FG
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:368% → 13%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
91.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 31 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
90.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+12
90.3%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
90.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 22 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
90.0%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.0%
Cameron Echols-Luper pass incomplete to Justice HansenSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
87.0%
J.D. Houston 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
87.7%
Kent Myers pass intercepted Blaise Taylor return for no gain to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
85.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 14 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
84.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
85.3%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Dallin Leavitt return for no gain to the UthSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
88.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 10Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+1
88.3%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 11Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-1
87.7%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 10Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
87.3%
Aaron Dalton punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5714% → 16%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
86.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 7 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+11
86.5%
Warren Wand run for 11 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
86.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
86.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
86.5%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the UthSt 2Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
87.5%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 7:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
84.5%
J.D. Houston 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30TD
17 plays · 91 yds · 6:5390% → 99%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
89.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 9 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+3
90.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
90.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
89.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 12 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
90.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
90.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 1 yd to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+30
89.8%
Kent Myers run for 30 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
91.8%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-1
91.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+5
95.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+20
95.5%
Kent Myers run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
96.1%
Justen Hervey run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+13
96.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
98.7%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:18
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 44 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)
-8.1
FG · Q3 5:34
Brock Warren 30 yd FG GOOD
+5.8
TD · Q1 2:04
Damion Hobbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com