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GAST

Georgia State 14 at Air Force 48

AF
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:05 · Brandon Wright punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Pregame prior+35.3Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.3Blowout margin+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:08: Luke Strebel 31 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +1.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:48: Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +2.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:45: Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK) — GAST win probability +4.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. TD · Q2 2:16: Tyler Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +2.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:58: Timothy McVey run for 18 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:49GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59AF 4th & 1 at GAST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08AF 4th & 8 at GAST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:08GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:10AF 4th & 1 at GAST 1, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:05GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:45AF 4th & 7 at AF 38, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:52GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:21GAST 4th & 10 at AF 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:21GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 44, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:22AF 4th & 11 at AF 44, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:44GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 36, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:51GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 21, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:02GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:49AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:48AF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:45GAST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:16AF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:58AF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:21AF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:51AF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:586% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
93.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 34 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
93.6%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
93.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Haji Dunn Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+17
93.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 17 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
93.6%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
93.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+22
92.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 22 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.0%
Kendrick Dorn run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
93.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
93.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FG
14 plays · 38 yds · 6:5193% → 91%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
92.9%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 8
50
+5
92.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
92.9%
Tyler Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
92.9%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
93.0%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
93.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
92.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
93.0%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
93.0%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+3
92.9%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
93.0%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-4
93.0%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
92.9%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
91.3%
Luke Strebel 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
91.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
91.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
91.4%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
91.5%
Brandon Wright punt for 60 yds, downed at the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
16 plays · 87 yds · 5:2691% → 91%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
90.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+6
90.7%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
90.7%
Tyler Williams run for 18 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.0%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.9%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
90.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
91.2%
Timothy McVey run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
91.2%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
91.2%
Shayne Davern run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
91.2%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+6
90.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
90.2%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
90.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
90.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 1 D.J. Johnson fumbled, forced by Shawanye Lawrence,Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
90.6%
Luke Strebel 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Ari WertsSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-5
89.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+6
89.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 6 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
90.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn Smith, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
90.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:2691% → 93%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
90.8%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+21
90.8%
Nate Romine pass complete to Tyler Williams for 21 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
90.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
90.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
90.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:489% → 13%
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
91.1%
Aaron Winchester run for 1 yd to the AFA 2 Aaron Winchester fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Aaron Winchester , return for 3 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.0%
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.4%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
89.6%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.5%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
89.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
89.4%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
89.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Glenn Smith at the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5812% → 11%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
88.2%
Aaron Winchester run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 12
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+7
89.4%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Kendrick Dorn for 7 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
89.4%
O Holdensen punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:0989% → 92%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
89.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+14
88.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 14 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+32
89.1%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 32 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
90.0%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
90.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+10
89.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
90.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
92.4%
Tyler Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:498% → 8%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+40
92.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Robert Davis for 40 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
90.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
90.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
91.5%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
92.2%
Rogier Ten Lohuis 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
92.7%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
92.7%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0293% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
92.7%
Nate Romine run for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
93.1%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+24
93.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 24 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
93.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
97.9%
Timothy McVey run for 18 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:3798% → 100%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
97.9%
Nate Romine run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
97.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
97.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
97.9%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+28
97.8%
Timothy McVey run for 28 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.9%
Shayne Davern run for no gain to the GeoSt 7 Shayne Davern fumbled, recovered by AFA Nate RomineSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
97.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
Tyler Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 0%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
99.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
99.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Keith Rucker for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Ari Werts, broken up by Haji Dunn Jr.Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-5
99.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Gabe Mobley) to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Brandon Wright punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.7%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+8
99.7%
Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
99.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, clipping (James Rast) to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+10
99.7%
Tyler Williams run for 10 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+4
99.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 26 yds, downed at the GeoSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.7%
Kendrick Dorn run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
99.7%
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
99.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Sebastian Willer) to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+6
99.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
Kendrick Dorn run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
99.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Gabe Mobley) to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn Smith, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
99.7%
O Holdensen punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 7:59100% → 100%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.8%
Nate Romine run for 7 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
99.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
99.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
99.8%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+1
99.9%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+27
99.9%
Nate Romine run for 27 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+3
99.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
99.8%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
99.9%
Aaron Winchester sacked by Grant Ross for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
O Holdensen punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Parker Wilson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
99.9%
Parker Wilson run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
99.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
99.9%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-2
99.9%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 13
OPP 15
-1
99.9%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:58
Timothy McVey run for 18 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q2 8:45
Kendrick Dorn run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
-4.1
TD · Q2 2:16
Tyler Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com