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FLA

Florida 13 at Florida State 31

FSU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.7FSU 68.8%Eddy Pineiro 41 Yd Field GoalAWAY 6 - HOME 10 · Q3 10:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:26 · Eddy Pineiro 41 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense+1.6Pregame prior+8.6Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:46: Dalvin Cook 17 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:26: Eddy Pineiro 41 Yd Field Goal — FLA win probability +3.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:38: Travis Rudolph 46 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Logan Tyler Kick) — FSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:51: Freddie Stevenson 27 Yd Run (Logan Tyler Kick) — FSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:45: Marcell Harris 12 Yd Fumble Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +7.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:59FLA 4th & 2 at FSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:14FSU 4th & 9 at FLA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:10FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:47FSU 4th & 5 at FLA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.3%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:57FLA 4th & 1 at FSU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−2.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:19FLA 4th & 4 at FSU 21, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:14FSU 4th & 7 at FLA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:42FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:55FSU 4th & 10 at FLA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:43FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:17FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:26FLA 4th & 7 at FSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−7.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:40FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:11FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:13FLA 4th & 19 at FLA 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FLA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 4:46FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:38FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:51FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:45FLA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:00FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:5630% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
70.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 13 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
69.9%
Antonio Callaway run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
69.7%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Lamical Perine for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+25
69.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Lamical Perine for 25 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.4%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q1 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
69.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:3869% → 69%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
69.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+3
69.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+10
69.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 10 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
69.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 8 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+19
69.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
69.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 3 yds to the FLORIDA 48 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Duke Dawson) to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
69.7%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+3
69.6%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
69.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
68.7%
Ricky Aguayo 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:3732% → 32%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
68.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
68.1%
Austin Appleby sacked by Josh Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 27 Austin Appleby fumbled, forced by Josh Sweat, recovered by FlaSt DeMarcus Walker , return for 3 yds to the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:2470% → 73%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
69.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+17
72.6%
Dalvin Cook 17 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2128% → 28%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
71.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-2
71.8%
Brandon Powell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 10Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
72.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 9
OWN 10
+38
72.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 38 yds , Nyqwan Murray returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:1773% → 73%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
72.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
72.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
72.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 9 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
72.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the Fla 35Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+26
73.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 26 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
73.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Fla 5Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
72.8%
Ricky Aguayo 22 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 7:2227% → 28%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
72.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.9%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
73.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
73.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 4 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
72.9%
Austin Appleby run for 1 yd to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
72.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 5
50
+4
72.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
73.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
72.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+7
71.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
72.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
72.4%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
73.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
72.1%
Eddy Pineiro 38 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:4674% → 74%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
74.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 9 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-3
75.5%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
75.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 8 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
75.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Izzo) to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+13
74.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 13 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
75.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
75.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
73.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2227% → 25%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
73.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
73.5%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-8
74.4%
Austin Appleby sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 9Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 16
OWN 9
+5
75.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 55 yds , Nyqwan Murray returns for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:2976% → 74%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
75.5%
Francois, Deondre pass complete to Cook, Dalvin for loss of 1 yard to the FLORIDAST40, PENALTY FLORIDA roughing passer (Jefferson, Cece) 15 yards to the FLORIDA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
76.1%
Deondre Francois run for 5 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+12
76.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 12 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
76.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
76.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
75.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
74.3%
Ricky Aguayo 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Marcell HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4027% → 26%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
73.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+9
74.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0276% → 74%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.6%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
75.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 3 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
75.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
74.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 30 yds, downed at the Fla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2026% → 25%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
74.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 4 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
73.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 37Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
74.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
75.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 52 yds, downed at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4076% → 76%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
75.6%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+15
75.5%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Chauncey Gardner return for 15 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5430% → 31%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
70.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
70.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
72.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
68.8%
Eddy Pineiro 41 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4572% → 84%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
71.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
72.2%
Deondre Francois run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
73.1%
Kermit Whitfield run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
74.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
73.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
74.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+1
74.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 1 yd to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+46
84.3%
Travis Rudolph 46 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Logan Tyler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:2117% → 13%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 21Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+16
83.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 16 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
83.2%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
84.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (Austin Appleby) to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
86.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
86.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:4286% → 97%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
86.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+6
86.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 6 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+18
85.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
87.6%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+3
87.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+17
87.7%
Deondre Francois run for 17 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
88.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
89.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+27
97.0%
Freddie Stevenson 27 Yd Run (Logan Tyler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:564% → 11%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
96.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 10 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
96.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
96.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-3
96.5%
Austin Appleby sacked by Brian Burns and Josh Sweat for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 14
OPP 39
-12
89.0%
Marcell Harris 12 Yd Fumble Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0391% → 90%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
91.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-9
91.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Travis Rudolph) to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 15
OWN 34
0
90.8%
Kermit Whitfield run for no gain to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+6
90.4%
Deondre Francois run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+2
90.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 44 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 2 yds to the Fla 42 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rayshad Jackson) to the Fla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:519% → 7%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+22
91.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 22 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
90.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
91.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-11
92.1%
Austin Appleby sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 11 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 19
OWN 22
0
93.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4193% → 95%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
93.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
94.1%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+10
94.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 10 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
94.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+15
95.2%
Deondre Francois run for 15 yds to the Fla 38 Deondre Francois fumbled, forced by Marcell Harris, recovered by Fla Teez TaborSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:505% → 3%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-12
95.2%
Austin Appleby sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 12 yards to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 22
OWN 26
+5
96.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 5 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 17
OWN 31
-5
97.0%
Austin Appleby sacked by Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 26 Austin Appleby fumbled, forced by Derrick Nnadi, recovered by FlaSt DeMarcus Walker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 2:0297% → 99%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
96.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 14 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
96.8%
Freddie Stevenson run for 3 yds to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
97.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the Fla 8Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
99.2%
Deondre Francois 8 Yd Run (Logan Tyler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:551% → 2%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ermon Lane) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
98.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 14 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
98.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 10 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
98.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 7 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+7
98.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 7 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
98.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:38
Travis Rudolph 46 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Logan Tyler Kick)
+9.9
TD · Q4 12:51
Freddie Stevenson 27 Yd Run (Logan Tyler Kick)
+8.1
TD · Q4 10:45
Marcell Harris 12 Yd Fumble Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com