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MIZ

Missouri 14 at Florida 40

FLA
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+4FLA 96.5%Luke Del Rio pass complete to TyrieCleveland for 20 yds for a TD,(Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 7 - HOME 26 · Q3 3:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:47 · Luke Del Rio pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+9.9Home team on offense+25.7Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:45: Eddy Pineiro 24 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +2.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:25: Drew Lock pass intercepted for a TD Teez Tabor return for 39 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +4.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:14: Drew Lock pass intercepted for a TD Quincy Wilson return for 78 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +10.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:32: Josh Augusta run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +9.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:47: Luke Del Rio pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FLA win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05FLA 4th & 7 at MIZ 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:05MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:02FLA 4th & 9 at MIZ 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:10MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:21FLA 4th & 8 at MIZ 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:20MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:56FLA 4th & 14 at MIZ 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:56MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:45FLA 4th & 7 at MIZ 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:45MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:54MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 32, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:32FLA 4th & 2 at MIZ 45, up 13
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:34MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:47MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 25, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00FLA 4th & 10 at MIZ 45, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:43MIZ 4th & 2 at FLA 45, down 26
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:25FLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:14FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:32MIZ Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:47FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:43FLA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:23MIZ Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:17FLA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
79.8%
Drew Lock run for 2 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+10
79.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 24 , Antonio Callaway returns for 10 yds to the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:5480% → 79%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
79.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+6
79.5%
Brandon Powell run for 6 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+46
79.5%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 46 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
79.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
79.6%
Mark Thompson run for 9 yds to the Misso 20 Mark Thompson fumbled, forced by Thomas Wilson,Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
79.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
79.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Antonio Callaway) to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
79.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+8
79.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Misso 14Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
79.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
78.7%
Eddy Pineiro 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.4%
Marvin Zanders run for no gain to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
78.4%
Marvin Zanders run for 4 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
78.5%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+4
78.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 31 , Antonio Callaway returns for 4 yds to the Fla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
78.3%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+10
78.3%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 10 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
78.6%
Brandon Powell run for 8 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+8
78.7%
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
78.7%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Antonio Callaway, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
78.7%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-2
78.6%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Mark Herndon for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 40Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
78.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
77.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 6 yds to the Misso 14Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 14
-5
76.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 9Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-1
77.0%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 8Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 8
-4
77.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Misso 4Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 14
OWN 4
+9
77.3%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
77.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 31 yds, downed at the Misso 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
77.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
77.4%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Tyrie Cleveland, broken up by John GibsonSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
77.1%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
76.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
75.7%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
75.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
76.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
76.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:1976% → 75%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
76.4%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 13 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
77.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+12
76.3%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for 12 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
76.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+8
76.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
77.1%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete, broken up by Marcell FrazierSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
77.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-5
76.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 36
0
75.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+53
74.8%
Eddy Pineiro 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
75.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
76.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
76.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 50 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 3 yds to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1575% → 79%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
75.4%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
75.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+8
74.9%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for 8 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
75.8%
Mark Thompson run for 13 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
76.6%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-2
76.8%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Ahmad Fulwood for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 9
50
+13
75.7%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 13 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
76.8%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 32 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
77.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Antonio Callaway) to the Misso 10Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.1%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
77.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
79.2%
Eddy Pineiro 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.4%
Alex Ross run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
77.5%
Alex Ross run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 22Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
78.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-10
78.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12INT
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
79.2%
Mark Thompson run for 9 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
79.9%
Luke Del Rio pass intercepted Aarion Penton return for no gain to the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
84.6%
Drew Lock pass intercepted for a TD Teez Tabor return for 39 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14INT TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:1115% → 7%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
85.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
85.1%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+15
85.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 15 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
84.8%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+19
85.0%
Ish Witter run for 19 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
84.1%
Ish Witter run for 17 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
83.3%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
83.1%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+78
93.3%
Drew Lock pass intercepted for a TD Quincy Wilson return for 78 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:206% → 7%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.0%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
93.6%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
93.5%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
93.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 22 , Antonio Callaway returns for 1 yd to the Fla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:3595% → 95%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
95.0%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for 9 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
95.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
95.1%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 11 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
95.3%
Del Rio,L. pass incomplete to Goolsby,D., PENALTY UF holding (Taylor,Ja.) 10 yards to the UF36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+6
94.7%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 6 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 14
OWN 42
0
94.8%
Luke Del Rio pass intercepted John Gibson return for no gain to the Misso 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
95.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
95.3%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 2 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+2
95.2%
Luke Del Rio pass intercepted John Gibson return for 2 yds to the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:035% → 15%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
94.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 36 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
94.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 9 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.2%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.8%
Josh Augusta run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.9%
Mark Thompson run for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
88.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
87.9%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
87.4%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for 9 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.2%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
88.1%
Mark Thompson run for 8 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
88.0%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
88.5%
Mark Thompson run for 7 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
88.0%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
87.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1612% → 10%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
88.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
88.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 23
-5
88.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Kevin Pendleton) to the Misso 18Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
90.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
90.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:3591% → 97%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
91.3%
Mark Thompson run for 1 yd to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+31
91.2%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Lamical Perine for 31 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
91.4%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Tyrie Cleveland, broken up by Cam HiltonSimilar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
91.3%
Lamical Perine run for 7 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-5
91.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
96.5%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean Culkin, broken up by Marcus MayeSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 59 yds, downed at the Fla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0296% → 97%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+29
96.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 29 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
96.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 5
50
+5
96.6%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 5 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
96.7%
Luke Del Rio sacked by Donavin Newsom for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 15
50
+5
96.5%
Mark Thompson run for 5 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
97.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Mark HerndonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 35 yds, downed at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
95.7%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
95.7%
Drew Lock run for 8 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+3
95.7%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
95.6%
Lock, Drew sideline pass incomplete to Mason, D, PENALTY UF holding (Tabor,J.) 10 yards to the MU31, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
95.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 14 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
95.4%
Drew Lock run for 8 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-4
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Alex AnzaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2498% → 100%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
98.1%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
98.1%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+33
99.8%
J. Scarlett run for 33 yds for a TD, (E. Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
99.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 21 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-5
99.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Tyler Howell) to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+7
99.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 7
50
+5
99.8%
Lock, Drew deep pass incomplete to Mason, D, PENALTY UF offside (Jefferson,C.) 5 yards to the UF45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27FUMBLE
6 plays · 86 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.8%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+13
99.8%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 13 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.8%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+59
99.8%
Lamical Perine run for 59 yds to the Misso 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.8%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Misso 1 Jordan Scarlett fumbled, forced by Charles Harris, recovered by Misso Marcell FrazierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 5:100% → 2%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
99.9%
Josh Augusta run for 2 yds to the Misso 3Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
99.9%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+6
99.9%
Marvin Zanders run for 6 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
99.9%
Marvin Zanders run for 5 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+2
99.9%
Marvin Zanders run for 2 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Ish Witter run for 8 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
99.9%
Marvin Zanders pass complete to Jason Reese for 24 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.9%
Marvin Zanders pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 1 yd to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+12
99.9%
Marvin Zanders run for 12 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Misso Marvin ZandersSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+34
99.9%
Marvin Zanders pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 34 yds to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.9%
Marvin Zanders run for 7 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.8%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 61 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
99.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 38 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
99.9%
Marvin Zanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 42 Marvin Zanders fumbled, recovered by Misso Marvin ZandersSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+15
99.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 15 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
99.9%
Ish Witter run for 13 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Marvin Zanders pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:14
Drew Lock pass intercepted for a TD Quincy Wilson return for 78 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q3 12:32
Josh Augusta run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 3:25
Drew Lock pass intercepted for a TD Teez Tabor return for 39 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com