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FLA

Florida 13 at Vanderbilt 6

VAN
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:08 · Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, downed at the Vandy 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior−20.9Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:27: Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +7.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 8:17: Eddy Pineiro 26 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +8.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:07: Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Vandy 5 — FLA win probability +13.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:56: Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 8 — VAN win probability +8.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 22 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined — FLA win probability +10.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:13VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:07FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:08FLA 4th & 7 at VAN 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:28VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:23VAN 4th & 23 at VAN 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:13VAN 4th & 3 at FLA 19, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%−0.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:39FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:54VAN 4th & 5 at FLA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−11.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:47FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:17FLA 4th & 4 at VAN 9, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%−1.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−15.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:17VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.2%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:56VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 43, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−3.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:14FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:27FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
26.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
26.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 0
0
26.6%
Townsend,J. punt 45 yards to the VANDY27, Kalija Lipscomb return to the VANDY27, out-of-bounds (Maye,M.), PENALTY UF illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY VANDY illegal block off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
26.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds, downed at the Vandy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
27.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Jarrad DavisSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
27.5%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
27.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
27.4%
Sam Loy punt for 60 yds, downed at the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
28.0%
Mark Thompson run for no gain to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
28.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 3 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+5
28.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
28.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
28.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
29.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
29.0%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
29.2%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
50
+15
29.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, PENALTY UF pass interference (Washington,N.) 15 yards to the UF35, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
29.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
29.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+6
29.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Teez Tabor return for 6 yds to the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
30.1%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
29.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 5 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
29.8%
Lamical Perine run for 7 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+10
29.6%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.5%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Taurean FergusonSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
29.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
29.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
30.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, downed at the Vandy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
31.5%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+7
31.4%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
31.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 10 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
31.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-10
31.7%
K. Blasingame rush for 6 yards to the VANDY33 (Davis,K.;Anzalone,A.), PENALTY VANDY holding (Justin Skule) 10 yards to the VANDY17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 17
OWN 17
0
31.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 17
OWN 17
+6
31.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 6 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 11
OWN 23
-6
30.8%
Sam Loy punt for 42 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:5467% → 66%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
32.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 6 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
32.0%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
32.5%
Mark Thompson run for 4 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
32.2%
Austin Appleby sacked by Adam Butler for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+13
33.2%
[SH], Appleby,A. pass incomplete to Hammond,J., PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Torren McGaster) 13 yards to the UF46, 1ST DOWN UF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
31.9%
Brandon Powell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+2
32.6%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-5
32.7%
Austin Appleby sacked by Adam Butler for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
33.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 51 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for no gain to the Vandy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
35.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
35.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+5
35.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive offside (Cece Jefferson) to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
36.0%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Quincy Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 10Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 18
OWN 10
0
35.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus MayeSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 18
OWN 10
-5
35.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Barrett Gouger) to the Vandy 5Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 23
OWN 5
0
34.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 23
OWN 5
0
34.5%
Sam Loy punt for 48 yds, downed at the Fla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:0166% → 74%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
34.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 11 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
33.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 24 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
33.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
33.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Landon Stokes) to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
33.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 5 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
25.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:1428% → 35%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
28.3%
Darrius Sims run for 17 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
29.7%
Josh Crawford run for 9 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+1
30.6%
Josh Crawford run for 1 yd to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
30.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Bailey McElwainSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
30.3%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Fla 48Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+11
29.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 11 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
30.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph Webb, broken up by Alex AnzaloneSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
30.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 11 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
31.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
31.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
30.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+38
35.0%
Tommy Openshaw 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:1368% → 76%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
31.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+10
32.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 10 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+20
30.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 20 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
30.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 5 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
29.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 3 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+6
30.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 6 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
29.7%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+42
24.1%
Eddy Pineiro 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.0%
Darrius Sims run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
29.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 11 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
29.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
29.0%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
28.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, broken up by Jarrad DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+2
27.0%
Sam Loy punt for 37 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 2 yds to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
26.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 6 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
25.7%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
26.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 3 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
25.9%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Tyrie Cleveland, broken up by Ryan WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
26.3%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
27.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+14
28.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 62 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 14 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:5728% → 35%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
27.9%
Ralph Webb run for 21 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
29.2%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
30.8%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
50
+4
31.3%
Kyle Shurmur run for 4 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
31.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Caleb Scott) to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
29.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 10
50
+10
28.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 10 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
31.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 11 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
33.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
32.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 16 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
33.0%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-5
33.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Bailey McElwain, PENALTY VANDY illegal formation 5 yards to the UF12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
33.0%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
31.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+27
35.0%
Tommy Openshaw 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
30.7%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 32 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (C'yontai Lewis) to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 18
OWN 22
0
31.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for no gain to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+15
31.7%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 15 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
30.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
32.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:0033% → 32%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+21
33.3%
Ralph Webb run for 21 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
34.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
34.3%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+14
32.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 14 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
37.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
37.2%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
50
-4
36.6%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
31.6%
Sam Loy punt for 41 yds, downed at the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17FG
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:5270% → 82%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+33
30.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 33 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
27.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 3 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
26.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
26.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
26.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 16 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
25.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 12 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
25.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
25.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Vandy 9Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
26.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
18.3%
Eddy Pineiro 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · -11 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.5%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
23.4%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, PENALTY UF personal foul (Jefferson,C.) 15 yards to the VANDY40, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
26.1%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
24.8%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 4 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+2
25.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 4
OWN 46
-5
24.1%
Sam Loy run for a loss of 16 yards to the Vandy 14 Sam Loy fumbled, forced by Bryan Cox, recovered by Vandy Sam Loy , return for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 14 Sam Loy fumbled, forced by Bryan Cox, recovered by Fla Antonneous ClaytonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
11.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-8
11.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+12
11.8%
Austin Appleby run for 12 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Vandy 1Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.0%
Team run for no gain to the Vandy 7 Team fumbled, recovered by Vandy Torren McGasterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
19.4%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 8Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
18.9%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Duke DawsonSimilar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+18
17.8%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 18 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
20.5%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 14 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
23.0%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
23.4%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
20.8%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
19.4%
Sam Loy punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1691% → 94%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
9.3%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 22 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
9.4%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-1
6.0%
Mark Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 23Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
6.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds, downed at the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
12.7%
Wade Freebeck pass intercepted Nick Washington return for no gain to the Vandy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0295% → 95%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
4.6%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-2
4.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 15
OWN 46
-1
5.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:07
Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Vandy 5
-13.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 22 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined
-10.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:56
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 8
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com