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FLA

Florida 28 at Tennessee 38

TENN
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:34 · Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense+26.5Pregame prior+1.9Score differential+11.5Garbage-time factor+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:12: Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +8.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:29: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +15.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:59: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +20.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 12:45: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 67 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +26.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:48: Josh Malone 42 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +11.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:06TENN 4th & 5 at FLA 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52TENN 4th & 1 at FLA 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:55FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:19TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:28FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:37TENN 4th & 7 at FLA 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:23TENN 4th & 5 at FLA 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:39TENN 4th & 6 at FLA 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:44FLA 4th & 3 at TENN 48, up 18
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:58FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 19, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:40FLA 4th & 19 at FLA 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−5.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:12TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:58FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−3.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:14FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−5.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:14FLA 4th & 17 at FLA 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:34FLA 4th & 1 at TENN 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:10TENN 4th & 4 at FLA 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:19FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 7, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00TENN 4th & 9 at FLA 9, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:35FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:10FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:12FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:29TENN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:59TENN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:45TENN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:48TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:27TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:17FLA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2525% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.7%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
74.6%
Mark Thompson run for 5 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+51
74.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 51 yds to the Tenn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 14:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
74.4%
Mark Thompson run for 1 yd to the Tenn 3Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 3 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:5574% → 73%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
73.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Quincy Wilson) to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
73.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+12
73.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 12 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
73.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
73.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
73.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
72.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 38 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for no gain to the Fla 2 Antonio Callaway fumbled, recovered by Tenn Dillon BatesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5873% → 72%
Q1 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
73.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Fla 1Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.8%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin Kamara, broken up by Marcus MayeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4828% → 29%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
72.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 4Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+8
71.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
71.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 11 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
71.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
70.5%
Austin Appleby run for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
70.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 2
OWN 31
-5
70.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (Johnny Townsend) to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+7
70.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 52 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 7 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3071% → 69%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
70.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
70.6%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
70.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
70.5%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Jordan Sherit for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+7
69.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
69.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
68.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 52 yds, downed at the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3931% → 31%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
69.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
68.6%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
68.8%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 5
OWN 13
-5
69.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Nick Washington) to the Fla 8Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
69.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4570% → 69%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
70.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
70.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Tyler ByrdSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
68.5%
Trevor Daniel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 3:1732% → 41%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
68.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 12 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
67.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
67.1%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+15
66.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 15 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+43
65.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 43 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
64.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 1 yd to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+5
64.0%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
59.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 15 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9INT
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:0260% → 57%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
60.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
60.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 12 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
61.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
59.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
59.9%
Jauan Jennings pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
59.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 5 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
59.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh Smith, broken up by Duke DawsonSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+21
58.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 21 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
59.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 14 yds to the Fla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
58.8%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
58.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
57.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted, touchback. Quincy Wilson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3746% → 60%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
54.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 20 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
52.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 9 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
51.9%
Mark Thompson run for 4 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
51.3%
Mark Thompson run for 7 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+36
50.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 36 yds to the Tenn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
49.5%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.8%
Mark Thompson run for no gain to the Tenn 1Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:2639% → 43%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
39.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 11 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
39.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 15 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
41.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jarrad Davis) to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
41.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 5 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+9
41.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
41.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
39.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
38.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q2 2:39
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
42.5%
Aaron Medley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:4758% → 69%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
41.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 20 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
38.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
33.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jawaan Taylor) to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+8
30.8%
Austin Appleby run for 8 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
29.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
30.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Alvin Kamara at the Tenn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
33.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2434% → 33%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
33.9%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+23
33.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 23 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
34.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
33.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Teez Tabor return for 2 yds to the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1273% → 76%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
27.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+7
25.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 7 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
24.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+12
23.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 57 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 12 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:2028% → 43%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
27.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 2 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
27.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
26.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 13 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
27.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-1
27.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Fla 28 TENNESSEE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
27.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+15
26.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 15 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
27.0%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Fla 23Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
42.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:4464% → 64%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
36.1%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-4
36.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 14
OWN 31
-5
36.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marcell Harris) to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 19
OWN 26
+5
36.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 47 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 5 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2036% → 31%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
36.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 29 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by Tenn Jalen HurdSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+5
34.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
32.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
31.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0467% → 68%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
33.0%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-2
32.4%
Mark Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 13Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-1
32.4%
Austin Appleby sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 11
OWN 12
+20
32.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 59 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 20 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:5233% → 56%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
32.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 30 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
36.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Fla 20Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
56.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3756% → 54%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
44.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
44.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 6 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
43.3%
Austin Appleby sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+4
45.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 53 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 28 TENNESSEE Penalty, Delay of Game (Alvin Kamara) to the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:2947% → 74%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
47.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 5
OWN 27
+1
49.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
48.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
47.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+67
73.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 67 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.5%
Austin Appleby pass intercepted Todd Kelly Jr. return for 1 yd to the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:3778% → 89%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
77.8%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
77.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+42
89.1%
Josh Malone 42 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2411% → 9%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
87.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-13
89.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 2 yds to the Fla 33 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Powell) to the Fla 18Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+13
91.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 45 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3890% → 98%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
50
+22
90.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 22 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
90.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+19
91.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 19 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27TD
19 plays · 86 yds · 4:033% → 9%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
96.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jawaan Taylor) to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+12
96.9%
Austin Appleby run for 12 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+6
96.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 6 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
96.7%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
96.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+17
97.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Freddie Swain for 17 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Jordan Scarlett for 1 yd to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+8
97.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Josh Hammond for 8 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
97.1%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai Lewis, broken up by Micah AbernathySimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+22
97.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C.J. Worton for 22 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
97.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 4 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
97.5%
Appleby, Austin pass incomplete to Swain, Freddie, PENALTY TENNESSEE substitution infraction 5 yards to the TENNESSEE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
97.5%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
97.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Jordan Cronkrite, broken up by Colton JumperSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Freddie Swain for 10 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0094% → 95%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
93.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
95.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+1
95.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
94.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:483% → 3%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
97.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Antonio Callaway, broken up by Derek BarnettSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
97.1%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+5
97.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 5 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
97.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to C.J. Worton, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 30DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0997% → 97%
Q4 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 5Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
97.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
97.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
97.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Fla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:45
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 67 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+26.2
TD · Q3 0:59
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+20.1
TD · Q3 7:29
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com