Try the model
UNT

North Texas 0 at Florida 32

FLA
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:01 · Eric Keena punt for 52 yds, downed at the Fla 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+45.7Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:32: Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:00: Lamical Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:11: Mason Fine pass incomplete — UNT win probability +1.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:34: Luke Del Rio pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 3 yds to the Fla 29 — FLA win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:46: Mark Thompson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 14:00FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:49FLA 4th & 5 at UNT 5, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01UNT 4th & 17 at UNT 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:49FLA 4th & 2 at UNT 5, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:11UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 4, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:46UNT 4th & 19 at UNT 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:45FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 46, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:13UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 16, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:15FLA 4th & 2 at UNT 8, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 13, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:45UNT 4th & 21 at FLA 47, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:12FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 18, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:25UNT 4th & 6 at FLA 46, down 19
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:00UNT 4th & 3 at FLA 26, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:34UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 16, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:37UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 30, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:05FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 32, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:35UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 46, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 12:32FLA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:00FLA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:46FLA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:15FLA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5599% → 98%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.5%
Mark Thompson run for 11 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
98.4%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
98.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 57 yds , Anthony Wyche returns for no gain to the NoTex 7 Anthony Wyche fumbled, recovered by NoTexSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2SF
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:252% → 2%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
98.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 7Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-7
98.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Caleb Brantley for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:5698% → 98%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
98.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
98.3%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+13
98.3%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 13 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
98.2%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 14 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
98.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
98.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 19 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
98.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
98.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 8Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.0%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.9%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
97.9%
Eddy Pineiro 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:422% → 2%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffrey WilsonSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
97.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 6 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-7
97.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Keivonnis Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
97.6%
Eric Keena punt for 52 yds, downed at the Fla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:0198% → 97%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
97.5%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
97.4%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+9
97.3%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for 9 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+53
97.3%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Josh Hammond for 53 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
97.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-1
97.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 9Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+4
97.0%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to C.J. Worton for 4 yds C.J. Worton fumbled, recovered by Fla Jordan ScarlettSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 2
OPP 5
0
96.9%
Mark Thompson run for no gain to the NoTex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:323% → 3%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
96.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+1
96.8%
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd to the NoTex 6Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 6
-2
96.7%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 4Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 11
OWN 4
+1
96.7%
Eric Keena punt for 43 yds , Brandon Powell returns for 1 yd to the NoTex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:2897% → 98%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
96.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+10
96.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 10 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
96.7%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Ahmad Fulwood for 15 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-9
96.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the NoTex 11 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 21Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 19
OPP 21
+15
96.5%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 15 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
97.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:393% → 3%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
96.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-12 Yards) to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+5
96.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NoTex 18Similar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+19
97.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 19 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
96.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 11 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
96.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 19
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 19
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffrey WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Eric Keena punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4597% → 97%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
97.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+13
96.9%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 13 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
96.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
97.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 27 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
96.9%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
96.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
96.7%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to C.J. WortonSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
96.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:074% → 4%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
96.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 16Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
96.5%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+6
96.5%
Eric Keena punt for 42 yds , Brandon Powell returns for 6 yds to the Fla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:0397% → 98%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
96.6%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Lamical Perine for 29 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
96.6%
Lamical Perine run for 12 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
96.6%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
96.5%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 4 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
97.6%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.5%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Marcell Harris return for 25 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2898% → 98%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.1%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to C.J. WortonSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
98.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
98.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 2
OPP 8
0
98.0%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:513% → 3%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
97.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
97.6%
Andrew Tucker run for 1 yd to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+4
97.5%
Andrew Tucker run for 4 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+5
97.4%
Eric Keena punt for 55 yds , Brandon Powell returns for 5 yds to the Fla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:103% → 2%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
50
-1
97.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+15
97.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
97.1%
Willy Ivery run for 6 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-10
97.0%
Tyler Wilson sacked by Marcus Maye for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 14
OPP 40
-7
97.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Jarrad Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 21
OPP 47
0
97.6%
Eric Keena punt for 36 yds, downed at the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:1898% → 98%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
98.4%
Lamical Perine run for 13 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
98.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 15
OWN 19
0
98.4%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for no gain to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+4
98.2%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 4 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-5
98.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 16
OWN 18
0
98.1%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 16
OWN 18
+9
98.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 59 yds , Anthony Wyche returns for 9 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:303% → 3%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.5%
Willy Ivery run for no gain to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
97.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
97.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 35 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTexSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+15
97.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.3%
Willy Ivery run for 4 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
97.4%
Willy Ivery run for no gain to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
97.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Tyler WilsonSimilar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+4
97.5%
Eric Keena punt for 40 yds , Brandon Powell returns for 4 yds to the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:5298% → 99%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
98.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+22
98.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 22 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
98.5%
Luke Del Rio pass intercepted Nate Brooks return for 12 yds to the Fla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:113% → 3%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+2
97.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
97.4%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:4898% → 100%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
98.4%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 3 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
98.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+10
98.5%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Freddie Swain for 10 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
98.5%
Del Rio, Luke pass incomplete to Powell, Brandon, PENALTY NORTHTEXAS personal foul 15 yards to the NORTHTEXAS44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-13
98.6%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Fla 42 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 23
OWN 43
+5
98.5%
Austin Appleby run for 5 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+36
98.7%
Mark Thompson run for 36 yds to the NoTex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
98.7%
Mark Thompson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 15Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-5
98.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 20Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+20
99.7%
Mark Thompson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
98.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
98.7%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to O'Keeron RutherfordSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 7
OWN 21
-5
99.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+7
99.5%
Eric Keena punt for 39 yds , Brandon Powell returns for 7 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
99.8%
Mark Thompson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Mark Thompson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
99.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+11
99.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Brandon Powell for 11 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
99.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Josh Hammond for 19 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
99.9%
Mark Thompson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 11Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (6 Yards) to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
100.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 22Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
100.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 8 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Eric Keena punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
100.0%
Lamical Perine run for 7 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
100.0%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+18
100.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 51 yds , O'Keeron Rutherford returns for 18 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
100.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 4 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
100.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 4 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
100.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Willy Ivery run for no gain to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:15100% → 100%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:11
Mason Fine pass incomplete
-1.3
TD · Q2 3:00
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
+1.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:34
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 3 yds to the Fla 29
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com