Try the model
ND

Notre Dame 3 at NC State 10

NCSU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:33 · A.J. Cole III punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior−1.7Home team on offense+16.5Garbage-time factor+9.0Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. SACK · Q3 1:45: DeShone Kizer sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 22 — ND win probability +8.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q4 12:43: Tyler Newsome punt blocked by Pharoah McKever blocked by Pharoah McKever Dexter Wright return for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +27.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:20: Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NDame 49 — NCSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:01: Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 02:01 — NCSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: Jalan McClendon run for 7 yds to the NCSt 27 — NCSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:32ND 4th & 7 at ND 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50NCSU 4th & 10 at ND 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:12NCSU 4th & 10 at ND 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:35ND 4th & 1 at ND 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:20NCSU 4th & 11 at ND 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:16ND 4th & 21 at ND 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:14NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:26NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:14ND 4th & 3 at ND 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:24NCSU 4th & 1 at ND 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−2.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:55NCSU 4th & 5 at ND 34, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%−0.2
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:52NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 40, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:04ND 4th & 8 at NCSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−8.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:39ND 4th & 12 at NCSU 24, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.0%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−9.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:00NCSU 4th & 1 at ND 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−6.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:51ND 4th & 13 at ND 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−6.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:11NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−6.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:43ND 4th & 14 at ND 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−6.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:33NCSU 4th & 1 at ND 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−6.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−4.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:55ND 4th & 2 at NCSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−4.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−4.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:05ND 4th & 2 at NCSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−2.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−6.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:52ND 4th & 8 at NCSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−5.9
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5861% → 60%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
39.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 6 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
39.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-3
39.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
39.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 42 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for no gain to the NCSt 23 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2MISSED FG
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:1640% → 42%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
50
0
39.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
50
+10
39.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 10 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
40.1%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+11
40.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 11 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
40.7%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-5
40.7%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 26 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCStSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+13
41.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 13 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
41.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
41.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 4 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-5
41.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
41.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
41.2%
Kyle Bambard 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
41.5%
Kyle Bambard 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:3059% → 58%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
41.2%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
41.1%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
41.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Durham Smythe for 6 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
41.4%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
41.4%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
41.4%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
42.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:0643% → 45%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
42.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 11 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
43.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 23 yds to the NCSTATE 29 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
44.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NDame 18Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-7
45.0%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+5
43.9%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
45.4%
Kyle Bambard 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2854% → 52%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-19
45.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 29
OWN 6
+2
46.6%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+6
47.3%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
47.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 69 yds, downed at the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5146% → 46%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
46.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
46.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-7
46.4%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 17 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCStSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
45.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 29 yds, downed at the NCSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5255% → 55%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
45.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 10 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
45.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+3
45.0%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
45.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
45.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the NCSt 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCSt B.J. Hill , return for 1 yd to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
48.4%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 22 Nyheim Hines fumbled, forced by Asmar Bilal, recovered by NDame D.J. MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9INT
12 plays · 3 yds · 2:3255% → 52%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
45.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
45.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 15
OPP 27
0
46.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 15
OPP 27
0
47.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 15
OPP 27
-5
49.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 20
OPP 32
+15
49.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
45.4%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
45.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 11 yds to the NCSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
45.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
-8
46.2%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
46.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+25
48.5%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted Jarius Morehead return for 25 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5351% → 50%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
50.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-6
51.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
50.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Matthew Dayes for no gain to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
49.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds, downed at the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0251% → 49%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
49.2%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
48.7%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
49.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
50.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 39 yds, downed at the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:0552% → 54%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
51.8%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+28
52.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 28 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
54.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
54.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
55.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+7
54.2%
Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
56.2%
Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+6
56.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
55.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
54.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thaddeus MossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5046% → 45%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
53.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-2
54.1%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+3
55.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4954% → 54%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.4%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
54.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+3
54.4%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-15
53.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2852% → 55%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
48.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
48.3%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-2
49.9%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
45.5%
Justin Yoon 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1350% → 50%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
49.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
49.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 22 Matthew Dayes fumbled, forced by Devin Studstill, recovered by NDame James OnwualuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:1658% → 53%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
41.8%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Kentavius Street for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
42.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
44.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 12
OPP 24
0
47.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18DOWNS
15 plays · 51 yds · 7:1250% → 57%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
50.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+20
50.8%
Jalan McClendon run for 20 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
54.1%
Jalan McClendon run for 6 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
55.3%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
54.8%
Jalan McClendon run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+1
53.0%
Jalan McClendon run for 1 yd to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+16
55.5%
Jalan McClendon run for 16 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
57.1%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 11 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
57.5%
Jalan McClendon run for 5 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
57.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NDame 7Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
55.8%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
57.7%
Jalan McClendon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 5Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
58.0%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-16
56.7%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 16 yards to the NDame 18 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ryan FinleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5452% → 48%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
48.4%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
49.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
50.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to C.J. SandersSimilar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
52.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4954% → 50%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
53.6%
Jalan McClendon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 32 Jalan McClendon fumbled, forced by Devin Studstill, recovered by NCSt Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
52.9%
Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
51.2%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
49.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 39 yds, downed at the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT TD
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5952% → 21%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
48.5%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
49.8%
DeShone Kizer run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
51.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 14
OWN 25
+16
79.0%
Tyler Newsome punt blocked by Pharoah McKever blocked by Pharoah McKever Dexter Wright return for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1525% → 26%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
75.5%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
74.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 6 yds to the NCSt 49 DeShone Kizer fumbled, forced by Shawn Boone, recovered by NCSt B.J. HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4784% → 84%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
84.4%
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
84.6%
Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
85.0%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
84.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24DOWNS
19 plays · 60 yds · 7:2421% → 13%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
78.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
76.6%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.4%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
79.5%
Josh Adams run for 12 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
79.7%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Kentavius Street for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+3
82.3%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+7
82.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 7 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+7
82.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 7 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
80.7%
Malik Zaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+3
81.7%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+6
83.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+2
82.6%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
79.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 11 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
77.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
78.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 8
OPP 16
-4
86.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Mike McGlinchey for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:3095% → 96%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
94.7%
Jalan McClendon run for 7 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+24
95.9%
Matthew Dayes run for 24 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 11
50
-3
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 47
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q4 12:43
Tyler Newsome punt blocked by Pharoah McKever blocked by Pharoah McKever Dexter Wright return for 16 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+27.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:20
Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NDame 49
+10
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:01
Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 02:01
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com