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MICH

Michigan 41 at Florida 7

FLA
2015 · Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl · Jan 1, 2016 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:54: Drake Johnson 4 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +3.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:58: Treon Harris 2 Yd pass from Antonio Callaway (Neil MacInnes Kick) — FLA win probability +4.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:49: Jehu Chesson 31 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +7.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:47: Grant Perry 3 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +11.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:48: Sione Houma 2 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +7.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 10:23FLA 4th & 7 at MICH 20, tied
    Close callWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:03MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:38FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:01MICH 4th & 3 at FLA 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−6.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:21FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:46FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:56FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 42, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:42MICH 4th & 6 at FLA 7, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:11FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 21, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:54MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:58FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:49MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:47MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:48MICH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:32MICH Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1INT
14 plays · 55 yds · 4:2940% → 42%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.3%
Treon Harris run for 9 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
40.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
40.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
40.7%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+4
40.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+17
40.9%
Treon Harris run for 17 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
41.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Ahmad FulwoodSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+26
41.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 26 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
42.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
42.3%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
42.2%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+1
42.0%
Johnny Townsend pass intercepted Channing Stribling return for 1 yd to the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:1758% → 62%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
41.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+11
41.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 11 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
41.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
41.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
41.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 24 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
41.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+12
41.4%
Drake Johnson run for 12 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
41.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Fla 4Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.4%
Drake Johnson 4 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2940% → 46%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.5%
Treon Harris run for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
39.5%
Treon Harris run for 1 yd to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
39.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
39.4%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 15 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
40.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+27
40.7%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 27 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
41.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Chris Thompson for 20 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
40.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 2Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.9%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.6%
Treon Harris 2 Yd pass from Antonio Callaway (Neil MacInnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4457% → 56%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
43.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-4
42.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 6 yds to the Mich 45 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
43.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
42.8%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
43.8%
Kenny Allen punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2245% → 45%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
45.0%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
45.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+10
44.9%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 10 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.0%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
45.9%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+5
45.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 5 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
45.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4555% → 65%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
44.7%
Smith, De'Veon rush for loss of 5 yards to the MICHIGAN15, PENALTY FLORIDA face mask 15 yards to the MICHIGAN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.3%
Sione Houma run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
44.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+24
45.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 24 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
43.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
42.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
42.5%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
35.4%
Jehu Chesson 31 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:3138% → 40%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
38.2%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 17 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
39.3%
Treon Harris run for 20 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
40.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
40.1%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+7
38.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 7 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.1%
Treon Harris pass intercepted, touchback. Jarrod Wilson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:5464% → 69%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Joe KerridgeSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
35.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
35.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 12 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
34.4%
Drake Johnson run for 17 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
33.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+24
33.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for 24 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
31.6%
Sione Houma run for 8 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
31.0%
Sione Houma run for 4 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
30.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Johnson for 2 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
30.0%
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
31.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
31.1%
Kenny Allen 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9END OF HALF
10 plays · 50 yds · 0:4831% → 32%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
31.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 8 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
32.2%
Treon Harris run for 3 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
31.4%
Treon Harris sacked by Royce Jenkins-Stone for a loss of 15 yards to the Fla 18 FLORIDA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Fla 18Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 25
OWN 18
+7
30.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 18
OWN 25
+21
29.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 21 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
31.7%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 26 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:5770% → 87%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
30.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+17
29.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
50
-1
28.6%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+11
28.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 11 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
27.4%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
27.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+12
27.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 12 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
26.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
26.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
26.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
27.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
26.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Mich Jake RudockSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
24.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.4%
Grant Perry 3 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0917% → 15%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
16.5%
Treon Harris sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 9Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 19
OWN 9
-2
15.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 7Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 21
OWN 7
+11
15.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 11 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
15.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 2:2288% → 97%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
12.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+45
12.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 45 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
10.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
10.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Fla 2Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.1%
Sione Houma 2 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:495% → 4%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
4.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
4.4%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
4.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+11
4.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 61 yds , Amara Darboh returns for 11 yds to the Mich 35 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:2697% → 99%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
3.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+9
3.0%
Jake Rudock run for 9 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
2.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Sione HoumaSimilar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
3.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Quincy Wilson) to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
2.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
2.5%
Jake Rudock run for 4 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+24
2.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Khalid Hill for 24 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
2.3%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
2.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+12
2.3%
Drake Johnson run for 12 yds to the Fla 13 Drake Johnson fumbled, forced by Marcus Maye, recovered by MichSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
2.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
2.0%
Jake Rudock run for 2 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
0.6%
Drake Johnson 8 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
0.4%
Treon Harris run for 22 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
0.3%
Treon Harris run for 1 yd to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
0.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 9
OWN 42
-1
0.3%
Taven Bryan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:45100% → 100%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.4%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+17
0.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ian Bunting for 17 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
0.3%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
0.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+14
0.3%
Jake Rudock run for 14 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
0.2%
Sione Houma run for 5 yds to the Fla 6Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-1
0.2%
Sione Houma run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 7Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
0.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
0.2%
Kenny Allen 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
0.2%
Josh Grady pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 7 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
-3
0.2%
Josh Grady run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Josh Grady pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+47
0.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 57 yds, downed at the FLORIDA 22 FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (Demarcus Robinson) to the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18END OF GAME
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:29100% → 100%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
0.2%
Drake Johnson run for 9 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
0.2%
Sione Houma run for 5 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for no gain to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
0.1%
Sione Houma run for 7 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+11
0.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for 11 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
0.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+14
0.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for 14 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:47
Grant Perry 3 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)
-11.3
TD · Q3 3:48
Sione Houma 2 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)
-7.3
TD · Q2 8:49
Jehu Chesson 31 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com