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NCSU

NC State 28 at Mississippi State 51

MSST
2015 · Postseason · Dec 30, 2015 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:19 · Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 12 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 184Home team on offense+35.7Score differential+31.2Pregame prior+0.7Garbage-time factor+10.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.8Blowout margin+17.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:17: Fred Ross 33 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +8.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:16: Pharoah McKever 82 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:43: Jaylen Samuels 48 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:20: Jacoby Brissett 3 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:16: Brandon Holloway 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves PAT failed) — MSST win probability +8.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:42NCSU 4th & 2 at MSST 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:14MSST 4th & 5 at NCSU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:35NCSU 4th & 1 at MSST 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−2.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03NCSU 4th & 1 at MSST 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.9%−1.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:43NCSU 4th & 1 at MSST 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:50MSST 4th & 1 at NCSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−1.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:39NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:14MSST 4th & 3 at NCSU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:35MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:04NCSU 4th & 12 at MSST 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:55MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:00MSST 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−2.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−6.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:47NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:57MSST 4th & 5 at NCSU 41, up 16
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:23NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 17, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:27NCSU 4th & 10 at MSST 49, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:19NCSU 4th & 10 at MSST 26, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:45NCSU 4th & 1 at MSST 1, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:33MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:31MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:17MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:16NCSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:43NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:20NCSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:16MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:41MSST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:38MSST Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:45NCSU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted Gerri Green return for no gain to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:1868% → 68%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
67.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
67.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 8 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+4
67.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
68.0%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the NCSt 14Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
68.4%
Fred Ross 14 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:3732% → 32%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
68.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 21 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
68.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
68.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+6
68.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
68.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0769% → 69%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
68.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 14 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+26
68.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 26 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
69.3%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
69.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-2
69.6%
Dak Prescott sacked by Eurndraus Bryant and Monty Nelson for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
69.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, downed at the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 5:0031% → 30%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
69.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+7
69.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 7 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+3
69.7%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
69.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
69.7%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+11
70.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 11 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
69.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+10
69.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
69.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Cory Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
70.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted Brandon Bryant return for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:0670% → 75%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+39
70.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 39 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
75.4%
De'Runnya Wilson 28 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7DOWNS
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:0726% → 25%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
74.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
74.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Maurice TrowellSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+25
74.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 25 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
73.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
73.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
73.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
75.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
75.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 7 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
74.3%
Jacoby Brissett run for 1 yd to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
75.0%
Dakwa Nichols run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
74.8%
Bra'Lon Cherry run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:3777% → 87%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
77.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
77.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+18
77.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 18 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
78.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
87.0%
Fred Ross 33 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:1314% → 22%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
85.8%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Beniquez Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+82
77.8%
Pharoah McKever 82 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10INT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:1078% → 79%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
78.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
78.8%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+6
78.6%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42 Dak Prescott fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
79.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 20
OWN 32
-1
79.0%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 21
OWN 31
+15
79.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
80.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
79.5%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
79.3%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Niles Clark return for no gain to the NCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:0221% → 28%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
78.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
78.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
78.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+48
72.0%
Jaylen Samuels 48 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:0273% → 83%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+39
73.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 39 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
75.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
75.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 8 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
74.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
75.4%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
76.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 13 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.2%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.8%
Dak Prescott run for no gain Dak Prescott fumbled, recovered by MisSt Justin Malone for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0018% → 17%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
82.1%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Richie Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+6
82.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
82.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Maurice TrowellSimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
82.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:0686% → 88%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
85.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
86.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 9 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
86.3%
Dak Prescott run for 15 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
86.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
86.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 7 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
83.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
87.6%
Westin Graves 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
89.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2086% → 85%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q3 14:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
85.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:0714% → 11%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
86.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 9 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+9
85.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 9 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
86.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+11
86.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 11 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Maurice TrowellSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
87.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-4
87.0%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-2
88.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 12
OPP 43
-2
89.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds , Fred Ross returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 22 Fred Ross fumbled, recovered by MisSt NC STATE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:0590% → 91%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
90.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
90.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+11
91.0%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
91.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
91.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Ashton ShumpertSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
90.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:3011% → 23%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
89.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 7 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
88.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 10 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+40
89.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 40 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.7%
Jacoby Brissett 3 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
16 plays · 74 yds · 5:3882% → 94%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
81.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
82.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 2 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
81.9%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
82.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 6 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
83.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
84.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+3
83.9%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+11
83.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
84.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
84.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
84.3%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+7
83.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 17 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+12
85.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.8%
Brandon Holloway 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:099% → 8%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-4
91.3%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Beniquez Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
92.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael RamosSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
92.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2294% → 95%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
93.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
94.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+19
94.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 19 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.3%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
95.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
95.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
94.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:077% → 5%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
93.4%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by J.T. Gray for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+3
94.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
94.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
94.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:1496% → 99%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
95.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+55
98.9%
Brandon Holloway 55 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 1:591% → 1%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
98.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 7 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
98.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+24
98.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCStSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 11
50
+6
98.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 6 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-15
98.9%
NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+10
99.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 10 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
98.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Maurice TrowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:4299% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+11
99.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.5%
Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+33
99.9%
Aeris Williams 33 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27TD
19 plays · 65 yds · 4:150% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 9 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 8
50
+11
99.9%
Dakwa Nichols run for 11 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Dakwa Nichols run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+9
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 9 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Cole CookSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+12
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 12 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 7 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Dakwa Nichols run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Jaylen Samuels 1 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:20
Jacoby Brissett 3 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)
-11.9
TD · Q2 12:17
Fred Ross 33 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)
+8.4
TD · Q3 1:16
Brandon Holloway 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves PAT failed)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com