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ARST

Arkansas State 28 at Louisiana Tech 47

LT
2015 · R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl · Dec 19, 2015 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+3.6LT 59.0%Jonathan Barnes 20 Yd Field GoalAWAY 17 - HOME 20 · Q3 10:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:00 · Jonathan Barnes 20 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense+5.1Score differential+0.5Pregame prior−3.0Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:06: Trent Taylor 13 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick) — LT win probability +8.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:22: Warren Wand 1 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick) — ARST win probability +10.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:18: Fredi Knighten 1 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick) — ARST win probability +15.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:09: Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 59 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +18.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:18: Kenneth Dixon 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick) — LT win probability +9.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 5:02LT 4th & 3 at LT 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:47ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:55LT 4th & 12 at ARST 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:54LT 4th & 19 at LT 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−2.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:24ARST 4th & 3 at LT 41, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−1.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:02ARST 4th & 21 at ARST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−4.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:00LT 4th & 3 at ARST 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−12.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:17ARST 4th & 8 at LT 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−9.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:26ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:45LT 4th & 9 at ARST 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:54ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 38, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:31LT 4th & 5 at ARST 5, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:00LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:06LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:22ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:18ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:09LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:18LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:52LT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:38ARST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:3743% → 45%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
42.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 17 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
43.0%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 7 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-1
43.2%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 35Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+8
43.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+53
43.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 53 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
43.9%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
45.2%
Kenneth Dixon 9 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2FG
18 plays · 56 yds · 5:0255% → 54%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
45.0%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
45.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-12
45.2%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 22
OWN 29
+13
45.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+8
45.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 1
50
+9
45.7%
JD McKissic run for 9 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
46.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Sterling StowersSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
46.1%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+10
46.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
46.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 16 yds to the LaTch 8 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-13
46.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 2 yds to the LaTch 2 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LaTch 17Similar
Q1 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
-15
46.5%
Knighten, Fredi pass complete to Wand, Warren for 17 yards to the LATECH0, PENALTY ARKST pass interference 15 yards to the LATECH17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
-5
46.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 37
0
47.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 37
+18
47.9%
Johnston White run for 18 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+35
46.1%
JD Houston 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5847% → 47%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
46.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 2 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
47.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for no gain to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
46.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
47.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
46.7%
Gerald Shouse punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5253% → 51%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
47.3%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
47.4%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
48.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Warren LeapheartSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 10
OWN 18
-3
48.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds , Trent Taylor returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 38 Trent Taylor fumbled, recovered by LaTch Trent TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4248% → 51%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+31
48.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for 31 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
49.1%
Dixon, Kenneth rush for 11 yards to the ARKST20, PENALTY LATECH illegal block 15 yards to the ARKST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 14
OPP 35
0
48.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 14
OPP 35
-2
48.8%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 16
OPP 37
+4
48.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+50
50.6%
Jonathan Barnes 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:4149% → 49%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
50.8%
JD McKissic run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
50.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+10
51.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 10 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+2
50.5%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
51.3%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the LaTch 37 Warren Wand fumbled, recovered by LaTch Aaron RobersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1954% → 65%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
54.3%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+12
53.8%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+45
55.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 45 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
56.7%
Kenneth Dixon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-5
56.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+13
65.1%
Trent Taylor 13 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
16 plays · 91 yds · 4:3837% → 45%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+25
63.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
62.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 9 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
62.1%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
62.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
63.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
62.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
62.7%
JD McKissic pass complete to Fredi Knighten for 9 yds to the LaTch 33 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 11
OWN 43
+29
63.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (29 Yards) to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
63.1%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+10
63.5%
Johnston White run for 10 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
64.4%
JD McKissic run for 2 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
63.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-1
63.9%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 18Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+17
65.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for 17 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.2%
Warren Wand 1 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:1760% → 59%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
59.7%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-10
60.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the LaTch 10Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 19
OWN 10
0
60.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 19
OWN 10
0
59.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 19
OWN 10
+48
58.7%
Gerald Shouse punt for 48 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 41 Blaise Taylor fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Blaise TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2141% → 38%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
58.6%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+12
59.6%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
57.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Warren LeapheartSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
58.5%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+3
58.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
61.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:4463% → 62%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
62.8%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
62.7%
Kenneth Dixon run for 11 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
63.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 8 yds to the LaTch 34 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+6
62.8%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+41
62.3%
Gerald Shouse punt for 41 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 41 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:0742% → 58%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
58.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
58.4%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 16Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+13
59.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to JD McKissic for 13 yds to the LaTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.8%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.4%
Fredi Knighten 1 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+71
51.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 71 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3854% → 50%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
46.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+2
47.6%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-10
48.6%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Vontarrius Dora for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 21
OWN 24
0
50.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaTch 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:5453% → 59%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
53.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 9 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
54.7%
Jeff Driskel run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
55.0%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+19
55.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Conner Smith for 19 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
56.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Conner Smith for 21 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Conner Smith for no gain to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Kameron McKnightSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.3%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
59.0%
Jonathan Barnes 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:3344% → 52%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
56.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+19
56.5%
Warren Wand run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+43
51.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 28 yds to the LATECH 37 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
50.9%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
51.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
52.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
47.8%
JD Houston 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:5352% → 74%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
52.2%
Kenneth Dixon run for 2 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+1
52.2%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 19Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+10
50.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
53.1%
Jeff Driskel run for 13 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
55.8%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 41Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+59
74.0%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 59 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2132% → 29%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
67.8%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+4
65.9%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
67.6%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 43 Fredi Knighten fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Fredi KnightenSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
69.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
71.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:0173% → 92%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+20
73.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 20 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+18
73.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 18 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
78.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+4
78.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+24
80.8%
Boston Scott run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
81.9%
Turner, Paul pass incomplete to Driskel, Jeff, PENALTY ARKST personal foul 8 yards to the ARKST8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LATECH.Similar
Q3 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
91.7%
Kenneth Dixon 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
88.3%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Xavier Woods return for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27 Adairius Barnes return for 23 yds to the ArkSt 48 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5892% → 94%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
92.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
92.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
92.3%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
92.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
94.1%
Jonathan Barnes 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:377% → 6%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
93.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 8 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
93.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
93.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 50 yds, downed at the LaTch 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:2995% → 99%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
94.8%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 6 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+77
95.0%
Boston Scott run for 77 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.1%
Kenneth Dixon 4 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25FG
22 plays · 70 yds · 8:5495% → 99%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
94.8%
Kenneth Dixon run for 11 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
95.3%
Kenneth Dixon run for 3 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
95.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
95.9%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Jake Swalley for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+7
95.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 8
50
+13
96.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 13 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
96.8%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+3
97.1%
Jeff Driskel run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+8
97.1%
Jeff Driskel run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+16
97.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 16 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
97.6%
Boston Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+9
97.8%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-6
97.9%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+7
98.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
98.3%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
98.7%
Blake Martin run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.8%
Blake Martin run for no gain to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
99.4%
Jonathan Barnes 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.3%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
99.3%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+17
99.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 17 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
99.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 17 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.2%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Adairius Barnes return for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.4%
Ryan Higgins run for 3 yds to the LaTch 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:09
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 59 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
+18.2
TD · Q2 0:18
Fredi Knighten 1 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick)
-15.9
TD · Q2 7:22
Warren Wand 1 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com