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SJSU

San José State 27 at Georgia State 16

GAST
2015 · AutoNation Cure Bowl · Dec 19, 2015 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:00 · Wil Lutz punt for 70 yds, downed at the SJSt 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense−8.1Pregame prior−3.0Score differential−2.6Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:04: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 38 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +9.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: GAST +2 timeouts on the defense).
  2. FG · Q3 0:02: Austin Lopez 19 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:46: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 19 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +29.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:15: Kenny Potter run for 42 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +32.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:25: Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44 — SJSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:26SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:24GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:12SJSU 4th & 27 at SJSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:05SJSU 4th & 2 at GAST 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:56GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:55SJSU 4th & 20 at SJSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:50GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−5.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:14GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:21SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:13GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:17SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:22GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−3.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:02SJSU 4th & 2 at GAST 2, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−18.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:00GAST 4th & 19 at GAST 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−5.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:50GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.1%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 7:04GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:46GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:15SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:40SJSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2663% → 62%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
37.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 10 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.5%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler ErvinSimilar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
37.7%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+1
37.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 41 yds , Donovan Harden returns for 1 yd to the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5138% → 39%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
37.9%
Nick Arbuckle run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
38.1%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
38.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
38.5%
Wil Lutz punt for 37 yds, downed at the SJSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 5:0362% → 59%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
38.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+6
38.6%
Kenny Potter run for 6 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
38.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
38.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Thomas Tucker for 9 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
38.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 12 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
38.8%
Thomas Tucker run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-7
38.7%
Hansell Wilson run for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 49 Hansell Wilson fumbled, recovered by SJSt Josh OliverSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 24
OPP 49
-3
39.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 27
OWN 48
0
40.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1640% → 42%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Bill TeknippSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.4%
Glenn Smith run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
40.7%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
41.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 6 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
42.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
41.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:2559% → 59%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
41.1%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
41.7%
Kenny Potter run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
41.8%
Potter, Kenny pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the SJSU20 (McGee, Alonzo), PENALTY GEORGIAST unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the SJSU40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
40.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
41.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 5 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
40.8%
Kenny Potter run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
40.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
40.6%
Josh Oliver run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
40.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+12
40.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
40.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Thomas Tucker for 13 yds to the GeoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
40.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.7%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.6%
Kenny Potter run for no gain to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
40.8%
Austin Lopez 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5943% → 34%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.5%
Glenn Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
44.1%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
43.2%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 34 Kyler Neal fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Kyler NealSimilar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+85
33.7%
Wil Lutz punt for 51 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for 85 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:2634% → 45%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
33.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Ari Werts for 20 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+29
33.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Ari Werts for 29 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
34.8%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
44.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 38 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:5458% → 58%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
41.9%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 12Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+6
42.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+19
42.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 19 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
40.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Thomas Tucker for 5 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+8
39.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
50
+6
39.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-5
38.8%
Ervin, Tyler rush for 4 yards to the GEORGIAST40, PENALTY SJSU illegal formation 5 yards to the GEORGIAST49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
39.3%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-11
39.2%
Kenny Potter sacked by Mackendy Cheridor for a loss of 11 yards to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
42.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 45 yds , Donovan Harden returns for no gain to the GeoSt 40 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the GeoSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5742% → 40%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
41.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-2
41.5%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Keenan Sykes for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 13
OWN 5
0
40.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 13
OWN 5
+4
40.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 50 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for 4 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10INT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:4062% → 61%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
37.8%
Kenny Potter run for 4 yds to the GEORGIAST 47 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 16
OWN 43
+11
39.6%
Kenny Potter run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
35.9%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-15
36.2%
Potter, Kenny pass complete to Crawley, Tim for 46 yards to the GEORGIAST0, PENALTY SJSU illegal cut 15 yards to the SJSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 39
+3
39.5%
Kenny Potter pass intercepted Bruce Dukes return for 3 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3742% → 40%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
41.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 9 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Ari WertsSimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
41.5%
Penny Hart run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
41.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
39.6%
Wil Lutz punt for 47 yds, downed at the SJSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:4260% → 58%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
39.9%
Kenny Potter run for no gain to the SJSt 17Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-1
40.6%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 16Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+11
42.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 11 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
40.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-4
40.3%
Kenny Potter sacked by Shawayne Lawrence for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
41.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
42.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 68 yds, downed at the GeoSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4741% → 39%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
40.7%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+9
40.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 9 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
41.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-4
41.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Frank Ginda and Nick Oreglia for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 14
OWN 14
-5
39.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 19
OWN 9
+9
39.2%
Taz Bateman run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+9
38.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 45 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for 9 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4363% → 59%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
37.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
50
+3
36.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-8
36.1%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 11
OWN 45
-3
40.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 50 yds , Donovan Harden returns for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 2 Donovan Harden fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Donovan HardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5041% → 38%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
40.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
40.4%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
38.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Ari WertsSimilar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 8
OWN 4
0
37.8%
Wil Lutz punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:0466% → 72%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
34.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+17
34.2%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 17 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
33.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
33.6%
Thomas Tucker run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
33.6%
Thomas Tucker run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.5%
Thomas Tucker run for no gain to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
35.2%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Shane SmithSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
27.7%
Austin Lopez 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0035% → 31%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.6%
Avery Sweeting run for no gain to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
34.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-9
32.5%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Maurice McKnight and Dominic Barnes for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
30.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 70 yds, downed at the SJSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18SF
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0671% → 63%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
29.5%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 1Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+5
29.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 6
-2
30.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-2 Yards) to the SJSt 3Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 11
OWN 3
0
29.7%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 11
OWN 3
0
36.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by SJSt for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:3442% → 76%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
41.7%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+14
43.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Ari Werts for 14 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
44.0%
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd to the SJSt 19Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
75.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 19 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:1436% → 73%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
64.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 20 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
59.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
26.8%
Kenny Potter run for 42 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0941% → 38%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
39.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
41.4%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
37.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22TD
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:4577% → 96%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
22.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
21.2%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
21.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
20.4%
Kenny Potter run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+9
19.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
17.5%
Kenny Potter run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
17.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+18
17.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
12.9%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 3 Kenny Potter fumbled, recovered by SJSt Kenny PotterSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
11.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Josh Oliver for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23INT
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:344% → 4%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
3.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 4 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-7
3.0%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Travis Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+15
2.6%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan (TEAM), PENALTY SJSU personal foul (McKnight, Maurice) 15 yards to the GEORGIAST28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+33
2.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 33 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
3.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 14 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
4.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted for a 1ST down Andre Chachere return for 24 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Gabe Mobley) to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0897% → 97%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 37Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+14
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:15
Kenny Potter run for 42 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
-32.6
TD · Q4 10:46
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 19 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
+29
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:25
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44
-15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com