Try the model
FLA

Florida 15 at Alabama 29

ALA
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Georgia Dome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:33 · Austin Hardin 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by D.J. Pettway Cyrus Jones return for 8 yds to the Alab 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+32.2Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:26: Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +4.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:04: Adam Griffith 30 Yd Field Goal — ALA win probability +4.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:49: ArDarius Stewart 32 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +6.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:02: C.J. Worton 46 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Treon Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion) — FLA win probability +5.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:54: Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Fla 48 — ALA win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10FLA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:47FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13ALA 4th & 19 at ALA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:05FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:16ALA 4th & 19 at ALA 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:33FLA 4th & 6 at ALA 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:06ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 45, up 2
    Close callPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:35FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 8, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:10FLA 4th & 30 at FLA 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:53ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 26, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:45ALA 4th & 5 at FLA 11, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−6.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:28FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:13FLA 4th & 18 at FLA 17, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:28ALA 4th & 2 at FLA 38, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.8%−2.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:04ALA 4th & 1 at FLA 13, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%−2.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−9.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:36FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:07ALA 4th & 7 at FLA 7, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−4.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:16FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 16, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:48FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:01ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 44, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:35ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:49FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 11:53FLA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:26ALA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:49ALA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:50ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:02FLA Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5313% → 13%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to C'yontai Lewis, broken up by Reggie RaglandSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-2
87.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 55 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1787% → 86%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
87.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 9 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+2
86.9%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
86.8%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+14
86.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 14 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
86.7%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
86.6%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-10
86.2%
Jake Coker sacked by Bryan Cox for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 37 Jake Coker fumbled, forced by Bryan Cox, recovered by Alab Jake Coker at the Alab 33Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
85.8%
JK Scott punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3SF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5514% → 14%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
85.9%
Treon Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 10Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
85.8%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Valdez ShowersSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+3
85.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
86.2%
TEAM punt blocked by Keith Holcombe for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3786% → 85%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin Ridley, broken up by Vernon Hargreaves IIISimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
85.9%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-7
85.5%
Jake Coker sacked by Jonathan Bullard for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 19
OWN 29
-10
85.1%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds, Antonio Callaway fumbled, recovered by Callaway at the Fla 7, returns 1 yard to the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2715% → 15%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
85.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+46
85.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Antonio Callaway for 46 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
84.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+18
84.6%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 18 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
84.1%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+4
84.4%
Treon Harris pass complete to Valdez Showers for 4 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+8
84.6%
Austin Hardin 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by D.J. Pettway Cyrus Jones return for 8 yds to the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0985% → 84%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
85.0%
Ridley, Calvin rush left for 2 yards to the ALABAMA40, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal motion (Ridley, Calvin) 5 yards to the ALABAMA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+1
84.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+6
84.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 6 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
84.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
84.2%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds, downed at the Fla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1016% → 16%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
84.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 5Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+3
83.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
84.0%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 4
OWN 8
+15
84.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 49 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 15 yds to the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:2284% → 85%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
84.4%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+6
84.4%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
84.6%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Fla 28 Derrick Henry fumbled, forced by Jarrad Davis, recovered by Fla Marcus MayeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:3017% → 16%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
83.0%
Treon Harris pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 15 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
82.2%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
82.8%
Treon Harris sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 20
OWN 33
-10
83.7%
Treon Harris sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 30
OWN 23
+2
83.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 55 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 2 yds to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1183% → 79%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.2%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Kenyan DrakeSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
82.9%
Calvin Ridley run for 2 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
82.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+85
78.5%
Antonio Callaway 85 Yd Punt Return (Neil MacInnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 5:5579% → 79%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.0%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
78.9%
Jake Coker run for 17 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
79.7%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
79.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
50
+7
78.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
79.2%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-1
79.0%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+8
78.7%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
78.9%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+10
78.7%
Jake Coker run for 10 yds to the Fla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
78.3%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
78.1%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+4
76.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 4 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
78.8%
Adam Griffith 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0224% → 23%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
76.1%
Taylor, Kelvin rush over left tackle for 2 yards to the FLORIDA22, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Jordan, Tyler) 10 yards to the FLORIDA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+8
76.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 8 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-8
75.9%
Treon Harris sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 10Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+8
76.2%
Treon Harris run for 8 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+9
76.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 49 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 9 yds to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 0:4977% → 85%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+55
77.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 55 yds to the Fla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
78.8%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Fla 2Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.9%
Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0416% → 15%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
83.8%
Treon Harris pass complete to Treon Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 18 FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Treon Harris) to the Fla 12Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+5
83.8%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
84.2%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+4
84.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 57 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 4 yds to the Alab 30, ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Tony Brown) to the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 1:0082% → 83%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
82.4%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
82.5%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 6:4182% → 86%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
81.8%
ArDarius Stewart run for 5 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+12
81.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 12 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
82.5%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-5
82.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+4
81.3%
Jake Coker run for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
80.8%
Coker, Jake pass right sideline incomplete to Howard, O.J. thrown to the ALABAMA35, PENALTY FLORIDA roughing passer (Davis, Jarrad) 15 yards to the FLORIDA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
82.8%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
82.8%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+3
82.3%
Jake Coker run for 3 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+16
81.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 16 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
83.0%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+1
82.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Fla 16Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+3
82.0%
Jake Coker run for 3 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+30
85.9%
Adam Griffith 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2416% → 14%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Demarcus Robinson) to the Fla 20Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
85.2%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Antonio CallawaySimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+3
85.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Alab 23 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Daylon Charlot) to the Alab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:1185% → 95%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
85.1%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+6
85.8%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
86.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 6 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
87.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+7
88.0%
Jake Coker run for 7 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
88.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+7
89.0%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.1%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
89.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+32
95.1%
ArDarius Stewart 32 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:187% → 7%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
92.7%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-1
92.6%
Treon Harris pass intercepted Marlon Humphrey return for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:5895% → 96%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
95.4%
Derrick Henry run for 19 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
96.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+14
96.4%
Derrick Henry run for 14 yds to the Fla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
96.4%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 4Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
96.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 7Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.4%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius Stewart, broken up by Vernon Hargreaves IIISimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
96.3%
Adam Griffith 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:297% → 6%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
93.4%
Treon Harris sacked by Da'Shawn Hand and A'Shawn Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 16Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
93.5%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
93.7%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Kelvin TaylorSimilar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
93.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, downed at the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:1897% → 100%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
97.1%
Derrick Henry run for 21 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
97.2%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+11
97.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 11 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
97.7%
Kenyan Drake run for 7 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
97.8%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+7
97.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 7 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
97.8%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
97.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
99.6%
Richard Mullaney 9 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.1%
Treon Harris run for no gain to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Cyrus Jones), FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Demarcus Robinson) offsetting.Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.1%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Valdez ShowersSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+1
99.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 54 yds for a 1ST down , Cyrus Jones returns for 1 yd to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Vernon Hargreaves III) to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.6%
Kenyan Drake run for 6 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Kenyan Drake run for no gain to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+9
99.6%
JK Scott punt for 46 yds , Antonio Callaway returns for 9 yds to the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:531% → 7%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
99.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Jake McGee for 17 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
99.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Valdez Showers for 18 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
93.4%
C.J. Worton 46 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Treon Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 0:1998% → 99%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
98.4%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
98.5%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-5
98.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alphonse Taylor) to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-2
98.8%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
98.8%
JK Scott punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Antonio Callaway at the Fla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:311% → 1%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+23
98.6%
Treon Harris run for 23 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Jake McGeeSimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-1
98.6%
Treon Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 11
OWN 31
-4
98.6%
Treon Harris sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 24 yds · 3:3099% → 99%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.2%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+5
99.2%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.4%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Fla 14Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
99.4%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Fla 5Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
99.4%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Fla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:49
ArDarius Stewart 32 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)
+6
TD · Q4 5:02
C.J. Worton 46 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Treon Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-5.9
TD · Q2 2:26
Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com