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GAST

Georgia State 34 at Georgia Southern 7

GASO
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:48 · Wil Lutz punt for 46 yds, downed at the GeoSo 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+38.1Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:27: TEAM takes a knee — GAST win probability +6.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:57: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — GAST win probability +12.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:10: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +17.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:18: Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49 — GAST win probability +13.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:14: Kyler Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +16.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 9 of 10GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:06GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:24GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:49GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:32GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26GASO 4th & 1 at GAST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:29GASO 4th & 12 at GAST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:29GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:49GASO 4th & 18 at GAST 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:04GASO 4th & 3 at GAST 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−2.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:01GASO 4th & 20 at GASO 37, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:50GAST 4th & 6 at midfield, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:43GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 27, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q2 14:07GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:32GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:57GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:10GAST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:14GAST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:31GAST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1INT
15 plays · 56 yds · 4:119% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
91.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
91.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+16
91.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 16 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
91.5%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+15
91.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 15 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
91.5%
Smith, Glenn rush up middle for 1 yard to the GAST43 (I. Gallon;R. George), PENALTY GS offside 5 yards to the GAST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+2
91.5%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
91.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+7
91.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
91.5%
Taz Bateman run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
91.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+7
90.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 7 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
90.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Matt Dobson return for 34 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
50
-9
90.4%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GASOUTHERN 49 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 19
OWN 41
+5
90.3%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+6
90.3%
LA Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-6
90.3%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Alonzo McGee and Joseph Peterson for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
90.2%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
89.6%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+3
89.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 3 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
89.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
89.7%
Wil Lutz punt for 46 yds, downed at the GeoSo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
89.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+4
89.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
89.1%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
88.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
88.5%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
88.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 7 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
88.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Tay HicklinSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
88.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Caleb WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+6
88.7%
Wil Lutz punt for 38 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 6 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
88.4%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-2
88.3%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+12
88.0%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson for 12 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
88.5%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-4
88.7%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+5
88.3%
Favian Upshaw run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
88.3%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 41 yds, downed at the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:0013% → 17%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
86.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
86.5%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
86.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+5
86.7%
Arbuckle, Nick deep left pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan, PENALTY GS offside (I. Gallon) 5 yards to the GAST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+5
86.5%
Arbuckle, Nick short right pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan (J. Johnson), PENALTY GS offside (I. Gallon) 5 yards to the GAST37, 1ST DOWN GAST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
82.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 63 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:3083% → 86%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
83.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
83.8%
Matt Breida run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
84.2%
LA Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+17
84.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Bobby Baker) to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
84.7%
LA Ramsby run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jerome Smith) to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
84.7%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.7%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.4%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-9
84.5%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Ryan George for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+3
85.0%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
85.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 40 yds , Derek Keaton returns for no gain to the GeoSo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:5785% → 82%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
85.3%
Matt Breida run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
85.9%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
85.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
85.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
85.3%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
85.9%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 18 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
86.3%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-5
86.3%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 19 Kevin Ellison fumbled, forced by Tarris Batiste, recovered by GeoSo Kevin EllisonSimilar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 11
OPP 19
-1
85.7%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+37
82.2%
Younghoe Koo 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
80.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
80.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
81.2%
Wil Lutz punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12INT
12 plays · 51 yds · 1:0282% → 84%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.8%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
81.7%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
80.8%
K. Ellison deep left pass incomplete to D. Keaton, PENALTY GAST holding (Smith, Jerome) 10 yards to the GS34, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.7%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Derek KeatonSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
81.7%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+7
81.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
82.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 8 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+20
83.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 20 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 0
-1
81.2%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 29 GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+49
83.8%
Kevin Ellison pass intercepted Tarris Batiste return for 34 yds to the GeoSt 0 GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
77.7%
TEAM takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.8%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
79.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
80.1%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
80.1%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+2
80.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
79.4%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:5725% → 41%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
75.4%
Glenn Smith run for 22 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
73.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 21 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
72.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 17 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
71.6%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
59.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0068% → 64%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
67.8%
LA Ramsby run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
68.7%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
68.7%
Favian Upshaw run for no gain to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-10
68.1%
F. Upshaw rush scrambled for 4 yards to the GAST33 (Ringer, Kaleb), PENALTY GS holding (T. Boynton) 10 yards to the GAST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 18
OPP 47
0
65.4%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Derek KeatonSimilar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
63.8%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:1641% → 67%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
59.0%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+27
58.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 27 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
55.5%
Glenn Smith run for 22 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+29
54.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 29 yds to the GeoSo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
42.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
43.5%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
43.9%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Myles CampbellSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+5
42.6%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
42.8%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:0471% → 95%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
29.1%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
29.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
28.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 28 yds to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
28.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 6 yds to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
28.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Keith RuckerSimilar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+3
28.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside (Jamal Johnson) to the GeoSo 4Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
28.5%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.7%
Nick Arbuckle run for no gain to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.0%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.2%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
7.5%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Michael Shaw for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 20
OWN 37
0
7.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Derek KeatonSimilar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 20
OWN 37
0
7.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 20
OWN 37
0
7.0%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 4:4095% → 100%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
4.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Chandon Sullivan) to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
5.0%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+1
5.0%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+11
5.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 11 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
5.0%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+5
5.0%
Taz Bateman run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+45
5.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Taz Bateman for 45 yds Taz Bateman fumbled, forced by Chris DeLaRosa, recovered by GeoSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
4.5%
Donovan Harden run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+28
0.4%
Kyler Neal run for 28 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
0.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Mackendy Cheridor) to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to LA RamsbySimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
0.5%
Kevin Ellison pass intercepted Tarris Batiste return for no gain to the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:54100% → 100%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
0.4%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
0.4%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+15
0.4%
Glenn Smith run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
0.4%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+10
0.4%
Taz Bateman run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
0.3%
Nick Arbuckle run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+2
0.3%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+3
0.3%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 6
50
0
0.2%
Wil Lutz punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
0.1%
Ryan Longoria run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+3
0.1%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to LA Ramsby for 3 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 39 yds, downed at the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
0.1%
TEAM takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-1
0.1%
TEAM takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-1
0.1%
TEAM takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:10
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-17.4
TD · Q4 14:14
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-16.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:18
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com